Date: 3/30/2011
Result: Miami QF, Mardy Fish def. David Ferrer 7-5 6-2
Why it matters:
- If you watched the match, you probably heard this note, but Fish has never lost at the QF stage of a Masters event before (3-0). That's a great stat for Fish, and seems to indicate that he's in control of most of his matches. When he's having a "hot" week, he can roll through anyone - including top players like Ferrer - and make deep runs in events. When he's having an off week, he can lose to anyone. His style of play is attacking, without being careless with his shots, and he closes at net as well as anyone else on tour. I think Fish should be able to translate his successes on all surfaces, but he usually tries to change his style of play too much to adapt to each particular surface. If he sticks to his guns, he should move up to the top 10 soon.
- Ferrer's year has been amazing so far, so having an off day like he had against Fish shouldn't be too disappointing. But Ferrer was visibly angry and frustrated all match. His successive double faults to get broken in the first set totally set Ferrer off in the wrong direction with his emotions and it carried throughout the rest of the match. Ferrer is a tough competitor, but negativity gets in the way too often. Some people say that you can't have the good emotions without the bad, but Ferrer always seems to run out of the good when he needs it most. I think that's keeping him from winning Masters Series events and Grand Slams.
Honorable Mention:
- Miami QF, Victoria Azarenka def. Kim Clijsters - 63 63 - I guess I read too much into Kim's fight against Ivanovic. She put in a really uninspired, listless performance, and Azarenka just did what was necessary to win. At this point, if Kim's motivation is purely about the majors, that's fine. But I'm still a bit nervous that maybe Clijsters is losing all her focus, similar to how she did when she retired for the first time. Azarenka is a former champion at Miami, so her success here isn't so shocking. Azarenka is still needing a really big breakthrough at a major, and normally I'd say confidence would rise from winning a title like Miami. But for some reason, Azarenka doesn't seem to go on big runs with momentum. She just has random wins here and there. Maybe a good result here will change that pattern.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Top 10 Return - 3/29/2011
Date: 3/29/2011
Result: Miami QF, Maria Sharapova def. Alexandra Dulgheru, 3-6 7-6 7-6
Why it matters:
-Maria will return to the top 10, and it's deserved. If you look at her results since the start of 2010, there are of course a few surprising losses (those are the ones we and the media fixate on), but in the vast majority of events, she's only losing to elite players. Of course, the problem is she should be winning some of those tough matches - that's what she was doing when she got to #1 and was winning majors - but losing to 4-time Roland Garros champion Justine Henin at the French, losing to 4-time Wimbledon champion Serena Williams at Wimbledon, etc. is completely respectable. But now having reached back-to-back semifinals in the two US spring Premier Mandatory events, she's finally done enough to be back in the elite tier of the rankings.
- Both of these players are tough fighters, but the real source of the struggle is that (despite what I said above), Sharapova is still lacking confidence to really go for her shots and put things away. I also think conditions in Miami (windier and more humid) will always be somewhat tricky for Maria's style of play; Dulgheru was able to fight and retrieve effectively and continue to frustrate Maria. Most impressive, though, did anyone think Sharapova would be able to continue after that terrible ankle turn?
- Dulgheru has to get a lot of confidence from this week. As I commented in my last post, Dulgheru is a clay court specialist, so a good run in Miami should set her in the right direction. She's still young, so there's no reason she can't continue to improve, including on hard and grass, especially if she fights the way she showed she can tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
- Miami R4, Kim Clijsters def. Ana Ivanovic - 76 36 76 - It was there for the taking for Ivanovic. The 5-1 collapse in the final set is more noticeable, but she had plenty of chances in the first set, too. I think Ivanovic really needs wins like this to completely signal a return to form, but hopefully she'll only take positives from the performance and forget the missed opportunity. For Clijsters, it shows her motivation truly is there. After her retirement in Indian Wells, there were grumblings that Clijsters was starting to get bored with the tour, but saving five match points in a non-Major is evidence that she really does care about performing week in, week out.
-Miami R4, Mardy Fish def. Juan Martin del Potro - 75 76 - I don't think this really changes the outlook for del Potro. When Fish is on, he can beat anybody, and both were putting a lot into this match. I think this may help del Potro by giving him a chance to prepare for the clay season, and potentially make an immediate impact. For Fish, he's proven that he's as hard working and motivated as Roddick, and his results over the past 12 months reveal why he's set to become the highest ranked American, should he win his next match.
Result: Miami QF, Maria Sharapova def. Alexandra Dulgheru, 3-6 7-6 7-6
Why it matters:
-Maria will return to the top 10, and it's deserved. If you look at her results since the start of 2010, there are of course a few surprising losses (those are the ones we and the media fixate on), but in the vast majority of events, she's only losing to elite players. Of course, the problem is she should be winning some of those tough matches - that's what she was doing when she got to #1 and was winning majors - but losing to 4-time Roland Garros champion Justine Henin at the French, losing to 4-time Wimbledon champion Serena Williams at Wimbledon, etc. is completely respectable. But now having reached back-to-back semifinals in the two US spring Premier Mandatory events, she's finally done enough to be back in the elite tier of the rankings.
- Both of these players are tough fighters, but the real source of the struggle is that (despite what I said above), Sharapova is still lacking confidence to really go for her shots and put things away. I also think conditions in Miami (windier and more humid) will always be somewhat tricky for Maria's style of play; Dulgheru was able to fight and retrieve effectively and continue to frustrate Maria. Most impressive, though, did anyone think Sharapova would be able to continue after that terrible ankle turn?
- Dulgheru has to get a lot of confidence from this week. As I commented in my last post, Dulgheru is a clay court specialist, so a good run in Miami should set her in the right direction. She's still young, so there's no reason she can't continue to improve, including on hard and grass, especially if she fights the way she showed she can tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
- Miami R4, Kim Clijsters def. Ana Ivanovic - 76 36 76 - It was there for the taking for Ivanovic. The 5-1 collapse in the final set is more noticeable, but she had plenty of chances in the first set, too. I think Ivanovic really needs wins like this to completely signal a return to form, but hopefully she'll only take positives from the performance and forget the missed opportunity. For Clijsters, it shows her motivation truly is there. After her retirement in Indian Wells, there were grumblings that Clijsters was starting to get bored with the tour, but saving five match points in a non-Major is evidence that she really does care about performing week in, week out.
-Miami R4, Mardy Fish def. Juan Martin del Potro - 75 76 - I don't think this really changes the outlook for del Potro. When Fish is on, he can beat anybody, and both were putting a lot into this match. I think this may help del Potro by giving him a chance to prepare for the clay season, and potentially make an immediate impact. For Fish, he's proven that he's as hard working and motivated as Roddick, and his results over the past 12 months reveal why he's set to become the highest ranked American, should he win his next match.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
When the right attitude matters - 3/28/2011
Date: 3/28/2011
Result: Miami R4, Andrea Petkovic def. Caroline Wozniacki, 7-5 3-6 6-3
Why it matters:
- Well it always matters when the #1 player goes down, but I think this loss is important. First, it breaks Wozniacki's impressive win streak at this level just below the majors (look at her titles), but that might be a good thing. It will allow her at least a week to regroup for the clay season - it starts next week in Charleston, SC - where she needs to make the appropriate adjustments to her game to threaten for the Roland Garros title. Since there is no longer a "dominant" clay court player on tour, Wozniacki is among the few favorites to take the title in Paris, and it's probably her best shot of all the majors to win. The problem is that the last few weeks, her attitude has been more and more sour, and I'm afraid that it might be the start of the pressure of being #1 really setting in. The last thing the tour needs is another talented young #1 crumbling under the pressure. I think Wozniacki is stronger mentally than Ivanovic and Safina, but that doesn't mean winning a major wouldn't be a relief for her. If she forgets this loss and looks forward to the important stuff, in the end it could do more good than harm.
- Petkovic is really fun, and funny, and proving she's a threat to the top players. She's had a stellar year already and seems to be flourishing. I think her extremely positive attitude about life in general allows her to not take things too seriously, which in turn leads to pressure-free match situations. Her twitter feed is hilarious, and her spirit (and dancing) have inspired others to also look on the bright-side of things. While attitude can only take you so far, it can be a crucial first step. It will be interesting to see if she can keep it up against the tour's resident diva, Jelena Jankovic, in the quarterfinals.
Honorable Mentions:
- Miami R3, Olivier Rochus def. Mikhail Youzhny - 16 63 63 - Amazing resurgence by Rochus these last few months. Following his appearance in the final of Newport, he'd gone 9-14 (largely on the challenger tour), and fell out of the top 100,until arriving at the challenger tournament last week in Guadeloupe. He took the title there and now has compiled three impressive wins, in addition to qualifying for the main draw. This win over Youzhny,however, takes the cake. Youzhny's still maintaining a solid ranking, but can anyone remember anything spectacular he's done recently?
-Miami R4, Alexandra Dulgheru def. Peng Shuai - 63 64 - Essentially everything about this result surprises me. Dulgheru is a clay court specialist (really a Warsaw specialist - unlucky for her the event is cancelled!), her game doesn't seem like it would translate to hard courts and her results on hard court have proven that. Peng is one of the hottest players on tour (I've discussed this previously) and is at her best on hard. Dulgheru is feisty, and Peng may be tired, so you'd MAYBE understand if Dulgheru scraped through a tough one, but this seemed routine, even if there were 13 breaks in the 19 games played. Really shocking result.
Result: Miami R4, Andrea Petkovic def. Caroline Wozniacki, 7-5 3-6 6-3
Why it matters:
- Well it always matters when the #1 player goes down, but I think this loss is important. First, it breaks Wozniacki's impressive win streak at this level just below the majors (look at her titles), but that might be a good thing. It will allow her at least a week to regroup for the clay season - it starts next week in Charleston, SC - where she needs to make the appropriate adjustments to her game to threaten for the Roland Garros title. Since there is no longer a "dominant" clay court player on tour, Wozniacki is among the few favorites to take the title in Paris, and it's probably her best shot of all the majors to win. The problem is that the last few weeks, her attitude has been more and more sour, and I'm afraid that it might be the start of the pressure of being #1 really setting in. The last thing the tour needs is another talented young #1 crumbling under the pressure. I think Wozniacki is stronger mentally than Ivanovic and Safina, but that doesn't mean winning a major wouldn't be a relief for her. If she forgets this loss and looks forward to the important stuff, in the end it could do more good than harm.
- Petkovic is really fun, and funny, and proving she's a threat to the top players. She's had a stellar year already and seems to be flourishing. I think her extremely positive attitude about life in general allows her to not take things too seriously, which in turn leads to pressure-free match situations. Her twitter feed is hilarious, and her spirit (and dancing) have inspired others to also look on the bright-side of things. While attitude can only take you so far, it can be a crucial first step. It will be interesting to see if she can keep it up against the tour's resident diva, Jelena Jankovic, in the quarterfinals.
Honorable Mentions:
- Miami R3, Olivier Rochus def. Mikhail Youzhny - 16 63 63 - Amazing resurgence by Rochus these last few months. Following his appearance in the final of Newport, he'd gone 9-14 (largely on the challenger tour), and fell out of the top 100,until arriving at the challenger tournament last week in Guadeloupe. He took the title there and now has compiled three impressive wins, in addition to qualifying for the main draw. This win over Youzhny,however, takes the cake. Youzhny's still maintaining a solid ranking, but can anyone remember anything spectacular he's done recently?
-Miami R4, Alexandra Dulgheru def. Peng Shuai - 63 64 - Essentially everything about this result surprises me. Dulgheru is a clay court specialist (really a Warsaw specialist - unlucky for her the event is cancelled!), her game doesn't seem like it would translate to hard courts and her results on hard court have proven that. Peng is one of the hottest players on tour (I've discussed this previously) and is at her best on hard. Dulgheru is feisty, and Peng may be tired, so you'd MAYBE understand if Dulgheru scraped through a tough one, but this seemed routine, even if there were 13 breaks in the 19 games played. Really shocking result.
Monday, March 28, 2011
Do we expect too much from Querrey? - 3/27/2011
Date: 3/27/2011
Result: Miami R3, Viktor Troicki def. Sam Querrey 7-6 3-6 7-5
Why it matters:
- Another tournament, another loss for Sam Querrey against a player that you'd give him a fair chance to beat. And it was close - that much is clear. But all too often, there are matches where everyone thinks "if Sam wins this, he'll really take off, finally!" - examples: Robredo in Indian Wells, Kubot in Melbourne, Monaco in Paris Masters, Wawrinka in US Open, Anderson in Canada Masters, etc. - and he ALWAYS loses. If he's losing in the fourth round of the US Open to a top 5 player, then you're going to give him a pass, but that's never what happens. But, maybe it's we, as fans, brainwashed to think tennis would only be fun with "the next great American star", who expect Sam to win these matches, when, in fact, he's already overachieved. Maybe he's peaked at this level. He never seems intense, doesn't look like an elite athlete really, and doesn't have a weapon in his game as devastating as his contemporaries. I propose we just be happy that Sam has been a consistent top 30 player and hope (but not expect) good things from him.
- Troicki, too, is probably overachieving. He's riding the Davis Cup Champion wave (not as high as Djokovic), and his results are better than ever. I think the camaraderie boost of having plenty of players from one nation having success is often talked about, but in Troicki's case, he's really made the most of it. I'm not sure how long he can ride this kind of wave... but there's no reason he can't be a success on clay. Look for him to put in a good performance at home in Belgrade, too.
Honorable Mentions:
- Miami R3, Francesca Schiavone def. Lourdes Dominguez Lino - 64 76 - following her slump while she was celebrating her Roland Garros triumph, Schiavone has been the most consistent performer other than Wozniacki. She really doesn't have any/many bad losses and she's had some spectacular wins. She probably won't defend her title in Paris, but if she makes the quarters or semis, I wouldn't be shocked at all.
- Miami R3, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova def. Petra Kvitova - 64 67 60 - Pavlyuchenkova is a popular pick to be top 10 soon, but Kvitova had the more impressive results leading up to this meeting. Expect these two to meet many more times in the near future, if both keep going on their current tracks.
Result: Miami R3, Viktor Troicki def. Sam Querrey 7-6 3-6 7-5
Why it matters:
- Another tournament, another loss for Sam Querrey against a player that you'd give him a fair chance to beat. And it was close - that much is clear. But all too often, there are matches where everyone thinks "if Sam wins this, he'll really take off, finally!" - examples: Robredo in Indian Wells, Kubot in Melbourne, Monaco in Paris Masters, Wawrinka in US Open, Anderson in Canada Masters, etc. - and he ALWAYS loses. If he's losing in the fourth round of the US Open to a top 5 player, then you're going to give him a pass, but that's never what happens. But, maybe it's we, as fans, brainwashed to think tennis would only be fun with "the next great American star", who expect Sam to win these matches, when, in fact, he's already overachieved. Maybe he's peaked at this level. He never seems intense, doesn't look like an elite athlete really, and doesn't have a weapon in his game as devastating as his contemporaries. I propose we just be happy that Sam has been a consistent top 30 player and hope (but not expect) good things from him.
- Troicki, too, is probably overachieving. He's riding the Davis Cup Champion wave (not as high as Djokovic), and his results are better than ever. I think the camaraderie boost of having plenty of players from one nation having success is often talked about, but in Troicki's case, he's really made the most of it. I'm not sure how long he can ride this kind of wave... but there's no reason he can't be a success on clay. Look for him to put in a good performance at home in Belgrade, too.
Honorable Mentions:
- Miami R3, Francesca Schiavone def. Lourdes Dominguez Lino - 64 76 - following her slump while she was celebrating her Roland Garros triumph, Schiavone has been the most consistent performer other than Wozniacki. She really doesn't have any/many bad losses and she's had some spectacular wins. She probably won't defend her title in Paris, but if she makes the quarters or semis, I wouldn't be shocked at all.
- Miami R3, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova def. Petra Kvitova - 64 67 60 - Pavlyuchenkova is a popular pick to be top 10 soon, but Kvitova had the more impressive results leading up to this meeting. Expect these two to meet many more times in the near future, if both keep going on their current tracks.
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Finally defeated her nemesis - 3/26/2011
Date: 3/26/2011
Result: Miami R3, Samantha Stosur def. Lucie Safarova 6-0 7-6
Why it matters:
- Stosur had never beaten Safarova before, and she started out like she was going to destroy the Czech. But Sam really regrouped when she let her large lead in the 2nd set start to slip. Stosur's fight has been suspect, and when the going gets tough, she can crack (this year, she's 4-6 in sets that finish 7-5 or 7-6). So to maintain focus, and really run away with the 2nd set tiebreak, might get the ball rolling in the right direction for Stosur, who gets to return to her beloved clay very soon.
- Related to that last note, it really mystifies me that Stosur struggles so much on hard courts. I understand that she needs time to run around her backhand to dictate with the forehand - time that she gets on clay - but shouldn't her other weapons (serve/topspin) still serve her well on a hard court? Fine, clay can take the spin and make it work more for her, but hard court is hard and the ball bounces well on it. I think her problems are more mental than a result of the nature of the court surface.
- I don't have too much to say about Safarova. This is not a bad loss. She is about where she should be ranked (31, currently) given her game style. I think if she used her "leftiness" to make her game a bit more versatile, she could maybe move up another 5-10 spots, but she's done well for herself. She should have better results on clay than she does, but maybe this year will change things.
Honorable Mentions:
- Miami R2, Pablo Cuevas def. Andy Roddick - 64 76 - Told you so. A South American player came through with a pretty big upset - and if you watched the match you heard how much the crowd was supporting the Uruguayan, despite the fact he was playing an American in the US. Definitely the biggest win of Cuevas' career. Told you so. Roddick loses to someone when he lets them dictate and hit their shots. Roddick out of the top 10 again, and going to be ever harder to make it back in with clay season looming.
-Miami R2, Philipp Petzschner def. Jurgen Melzer - 63 64 - I always think it's fun when doubles partners face off. And, although its not always the case, I think the less accomplished of the partnership always has a great chance to pull off the upset because they know more about their opponent and also I think the higher ranked partner feels some remorse and might not be as gritty in the fight. (Federer v. Wawrinka is the exception that proves the rule - though they don't actually play doubles that regularly compared to some other notable tandems). Regarding Melzer, I'm still not entirely sure how his rank is that high. I know he made the French semifinals last year and took out Rafa in the fall, but his lofty rank with results that can best be qualified as solid further proves that the top guys are really stingy about leaving ranking points on the table for everyone else.
Result: Miami R3, Samantha Stosur def. Lucie Safarova 6-0 7-6
Why it matters:
- Stosur had never beaten Safarova before, and she started out like she was going to destroy the Czech. But Sam really regrouped when she let her large lead in the 2nd set start to slip. Stosur's fight has been suspect, and when the going gets tough, she can crack (this year, she's 4-6 in sets that finish 7-5 or 7-6). So to maintain focus, and really run away with the 2nd set tiebreak, might get the ball rolling in the right direction for Stosur, who gets to return to her beloved clay very soon.
- Related to that last note, it really mystifies me that Stosur struggles so much on hard courts. I understand that she needs time to run around her backhand to dictate with the forehand - time that she gets on clay - but shouldn't her other weapons (serve/topspin) still serve her well on a hard court? Fine, clay can take the spin and make it work more for her, but hard court is hard and the ball bounces well on it. I think her problems are more mental than a result of the nature of the court surface.
- I don't have too much to say about Safarova. This is not a bad loss. She is about where she should be ranked (31, currently) given her game style. I think if she used her "leftiness" to make her game a bit more versatile, she could maybe move up another 5-10 spots, but she's done well for herself. She should have better results on clay than she does, but maybe this year will change things.
Honorable Mentions:
- Miami R2, Pablo Cuevas def. Andy Roddick - 64 76 - Told you so. A South American player came through with a pretty big upset - and if you watched the match you heard how much the crowd was supporting the Uruguayan, despite the fact he was playing an American in the US. Definitely the biggest win of Cuevas' career. Told you so. Roddick loses to someone when he lets them dictate and hit their shots. Roddick out of the top 10 again, and going to be ever harder to make it back in with clay season looming.
-Miami R2, Philipp Petzschner def. Jurgen Melzer - 63 64 - I always think it's fun when doubles partners face off. And, although its not always the case, I think the less accomplished of the partnership always has a great chance to pull off the upset because they know more about their opponent and also I think the higher ranked partner feels some remorse and might not be as gritty in the fight. (Federer v. Wawrinka is the exception that proves the rule - though they don't actually play doubles that regularly compared to some other notable tandems). Regarding Melzer, I'm still not entirely sure how his rank is that high. I know he made the French semifinals last year and took out Rafa in the fall, but his lofty rank with results that can best be qualified as solid further proves that the top guys are really stingy about leaving ranking points on the table for everyone else.
Saturday, March 26, 2011
Is Ivanovic becoming a smarter player?
Date: 3/25/2011
Result: Miami R2, Ana Ivanovic def. Kimiko Date-Krumm 6-2 6-0
Why it matters:
- This is the third win for Ivanovic over Date-Krumm in the last 5 months... and they keep getting easier. During the depths of Ivanovic's slump, when she would face the same player multiple times, she could never string together consistent wins. The fact that she can take down Date-Krumm, who is a smart player and tough fighter, and make the result more and more lopsided, shows that not only is her confidence rising, but she's honing her game plan with each match to make the scoreline more comfortable. Am I ready to say Ivanovic is totally back? Definitely not. But winning the matches she should be winning, at least ranking wise, is a first big step to getting back into the top 10 for the first time since June 2009.
- Losing to Ivanovic wouldn't be so bad for Date-Krumm, if she had put up more resistance. The best comeback story in tennis (sorry Kim...) might be ready to fizzle, though. She's 5-9 since her epic loss to Tanasugarn in the Osaka final - the "oldest" final ever - and she's losing to players the likes of which she was beating in 2009 and 2010 during her comeback. She's still right around the top 50 in the rankings, so it's hard to say she should give it up, but she needs to regroup, especially with the clay court season coming up where she traditionally struggles. If she can't make a run on the grass, or more importantly in her beloved home tournaments in Japan (should they still be held), the end might be near for the inspiring 40 year old.
Honorable Mentions:
- Miami R2, Somdev Devvarman def. Milos Raonic - 76 75 - two of the breakout stars in Indian Wells met early in Miami, and Devvarman's hot streak is stronger, and he really seems to have the attitude to develop into a consistent performer. This has to be the longest stretch of tough matches in Raonic's young career, so he is deserving of a good rest. Everyone is speculating how he'll perform on clay, so keep an eye out at Monte Carlo, a big event for Milos to make his tour debut on clay (though he won 2 easy matches on clay in Davis Cup against opponents outside the top 100).
- Miami R2, Alex Bogomolov, Jr. def. Andy Murray - 61 75 - this was not the bounce-back match Murray needed following his stunning loss to Young in Indian Wells. He really needs to regroup - like maybe do something REALLY impressive on clay, not just improve slightly, as I suggested previously, to get his confidence for the grass court season. If Murray comes back to the UK with no momentum, the media will rip him to shreds. Sorry to Bogomolov, but this match is all about Murray's performance, though Brad Gilbert did tweet: "Kei split the court today with Bogie during a.m. warm up & I was thinking to myself that bogomolov was hitting super intense..." enjoy the win though!
Result: Miami R2, Ana Ivanovic def. Kimiko Date-Krumm 6-2 6-0
Why it matters:
- This is the third win for Ivanovic over Date-Krumm in the last 5 months... and they keep getting easier. During the depths of Ivanovic's slump, when she would face the same player multiple times, she could never string together consistent wins. The fact that she can take down Date-Krumm, who is a smart player and tough fighter, and make the result more and more lopsided, shows that not only is her confidence rising, but she's honing her game plan with each match to make the scoreline more comfortable. Am I ready to say Ivanovic is totally back? Definitely not. But winning the matches she should be winning, at least ranking wise, is a first big step to getting back into the top 10 for the first time since June 2009.
- Losing to Ivanovic wouldn't be so bad for Date-Krumm, if she had put up more resistance. The best comeback story in tennis (sorry Kim...) might be ready to fizzle, though. She's 5-9 since her epic loss to Tanasugarn in the Osaka final - the "oldest" final ever - and she's losing to players the likes of which she was beating in 2009 and 2010 during her comeback. She's still right around the top 50 in the rankings, so it's hard to say she should give it up, but she needs to regroup, especially with the clay court season coming up where she traditionally struggles. If she can't make a run on the grass, or more importantly in her beloved home tournaments in Japan (should they still be held), the end might be near for the inspiring 40 year old.
Honorable Mentions:
- Miami R2, Somdev Devvarman def. Milos Raonic - 76 75 - two of the breakout stars in Indian Wells met early in Miami, and Devvarman's hot streak is stronger, and he really seems to have the attitude to develop into a consistent performer. This has to be the longest stretch of tough matches in Raonic's young career, so he is deserving of a good rest. Everyone is speculating how he'll perform on clay, so keep an eye out at Monte Carlo, a big event for Milos to make his tour debut on clay (though he won 2 easy matches on clay in Davis Cup against opponents outside the top 100).
- Miami R2, Alex Bogomolov, Jr. def. Andy Murray - 61 75 - this was not the bounce-back match Murray needed following his stunning loss to Young in Indian Wells. He really needs to regroup - like maybe do something REALLY impressive on clay, not just improve slightly, as I suggested previously, to get his confidence for the grass court season. If Murray comes back to the UK with no momentum, the media will rip him to shreds. Sorry to Bogomolov, but this match is all about Murray's performance, though Brad Gilbert did tweet: "Kei split the court today with Bogie during a.m. warm up & I was thinking to myself that bogomolov was hitting super intense..." enjoy the win though!
Thursday, March 24, 2011
The Man who can tolerate Brad Gilbert? - 3/24/2011
Date: 3/24/2011
Result: Miami R1, Kei Nishikori def. Jeremy Chardy 7-6 6-2
Why it matters:
- Nishikori must be having a hard time focusing with the troubles going on in his home country of Japan, but he's trying to persevere anyway. And he should - he's had enough to overcome in his career already (look at the results when you google Nishikori Injury. Kei gets to face Nadal next round, and I hope he can enjoy himself enough to take a good crack at the World #1.
- Nishikori has done well to pick up Brad Gilbert as a part-time coach, as well. As annoying as Gilbert can be (read: always is) as a commentator, and probably generally, there's no doubt he's one of the best (if not THE best) coaches out there, and anyone who can't take a personality like Brad's in their camp even if it brings them some of their best results (ahem... Roddick, Murray) is blowing an amazing opportunity.
- For Chardy, it's back to the drawing board. He can randomly beat anyone, but usually is on the losing end of matches like this to more talented opponents. He needs something more in his game. If he could develop some more of that classic French "flair", (a la Sebastien Grosjean?) maybe he could go even higher than he has previously, especially on clay and grass.
Honorable Mentions:
- Miami R2, Johanna Larsson def. Li Na - 75 67 76 - How long will Li's hangover from her Australian Open success last? She's too impatient to fare too well on the clay, so she may have to wait until grass season to make another big impact on tour. Larsson, meanwhile, should probably be more successful at this point than she has been. She better be prepared to build on this.
- Miami R2, Anabel Medina Garrigues def. Shahar Peer - 62 62 - I wish I saw how Medina Garrigues broke Peer down so severely. Miami's swirly conditions seemed perfect for a tough grinder like Peer, and set up her top 10 breakthrough after Bartoli's shock run to the final of Indian Wells blocked Peer last week. Really interesting result.
Result: Miami R1, Kei Nishikori def. Jeremy Chardy 7-6 6-2
Why it matters:
- Nishikori must be having a hard time focusing with the troubles going on in his home country of Japan, but he's trying to persevere anyway. And he should - he's had enough to overcome in his career already (look at the results when you google Nishikori Injury. Kei gets to face Nadal next round, and I hope he can enjoy himself enough to take a good crack at the World #1.
- Nishikori has done well to pick up Brad Gilbert as a part-time coach, as well. As annoying as Gilbert can be (read: always is) as a commentator, and probably generally, there's no doubt he's one of the best (if not THE best) coaches out there, and anyone who can't take a personality like Brad's in their camp even if it brings them some of their best results (ahem... Roddick, Murray) is blowing an amazing opportunity.
- For Chardy, it's back to the drawing board. He can randomly beat anyone, but usually is on the losing end of matches like this to more talented opponents. He needs something more in his game. If he could develop some more of that classic French "flair", (a la Sebastien Grosjean?) maybe he could go even higher than he has previously, especially on clay and grass.
Honorable Mentions:
- Miami R2, Johanna Larsson def. Li Na - 75 67 76 - How long will Li's hangover from her Australian Open success last? She's too impatient to fare too well on the clay, so she may have to wait until grass season to make another big impact on tour. Larsson, meanwhile, should probably be more successful at this point than she has been. She better be prepared to build on this.
- Miami R2, Anabel Medina Garrigues def. Shahar Peer - 62 62 - I wish I saw how Medina Garrigues broke Peer down so severely. Miami's swirly conditions seemed perfect for a tough grinder like Peer, and set up her top 10 breakthrough after Bartoli's shock run to the final of Indian Wells blocked Peer last week. Really interesting result.
An easy win for a marathon woman - 3/23/11
Date: 3/23/2011
Result: Miami R1, Peng Shuai def. Greta Arn 6-1 6-2
Why it matters:
- I speculated what Arn's knee injury in Indian Wells might mean for the rest of her year, and this loss might be a harbinger of things to come. Arn seemed to be following the example of Schiavone, only on a smaller scale. She put together some of her best results late in her career, trying to achieve some career highs before her career finished - she's at her career high rank right now. You hate to see the momentum derailed by injury, but it looks like that's exactly what happened.
- For Peng, she adds a rare routine to her hot streak. She's made (almost) the most of her good form - I think she'd love to have her Australian Open loss to Radwanska back - having gone 23-7 this year so far off the heels of her Asian Games win. But look at the number of impressive, grinding, 3-set wins that she's come through on. For someone who has played so much, and had so much success, she deserved a quick win for a change. She's also had some decent results on clay, so she should look to keep riding the wave for several more months.
Honorable Mentions:
- Miami R1, Kevin Anderson def. Nikolay Davydenko - 64 63 - So I was wrong. I thought Davydenko was almost back, and then he has a tame loss like this to someone he should be beating, especially in a place where he's had great success (2008 champion). But Anderson has done well in Miami, also. As I mentioned in my previous posts, Davydenko can't afford losses now, no matter the variety, but routine losses to anyone not in the top 10 are really unacceptable.
- Miami R1, Varvara Lepchenko def. Coco Vandeweghe - 62 63 - Another routine beat-down head-scratcher. After Coco took down Zvonareva in San Diego , it looked like Coco might start to make her way up the rankings. But losses like this one, to a rare American clay-court specialist (she's a naturalized American - maybe that explains it), really make you wonder.
Result: Miami R1, Peng Shuai def. Greta Arn 6-1 6-2
Why it matters:
- I speculated what Arn's knee injury in Indian Wells might mean for the rest of her year, and this loss might be a harbinger of things to come. Arn seemed to be following the example of Schiavone, only on a smaller scale. She put together some of her best results late in her career, trying to achieve some career highs before her career finished - she's at her career high rank right now. You hate to see the momentum derailed by injury, but it looks like that's exactly what happened.
- For Peng, she adds a rare routine to her hot streak. She's made (almost) the most of her good form - I think she'd love to have her Australian Open loss to Radwanska back - having gone 23-7 this year so far off the heels of her Asian Games win. But look at the number of impressive, grinding, 3-set wins that she's come through on. For someone who has played so much, and had so much success, she deserved a quick win for a change. She's also had some decent results on clay, so she should look to keep riding the wave for several more months.
Honorable Mentions:
- Miami R1, Kevin Anderson def. Nikolay Davydenko - 64 63 - So I was wrong. I thought Davydenko was almost back, and then he has a tame loss like this to someone he should be beating, especially in a place where he's had great success (2008 champion). But Anderson has done well in Miami, also. As I mentioned in my previous posts, Davydenko can't afford losses now, no matter the variety, but routine losses to anyone not in the top 10 are really unacceptable.
- Miami R1, Varvara Lepchenko def. Coco Vandeweghe - 62 63 - Another routine beat-down head-scratcher. After Coco took down Zvonareva in San Diego , it looked like Coco might start to make her way up the rankings. But losses like this one, to a rare American clay-court specialist (she's a naturalized American - maybe that explains it), really make you wonder.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Inspiring a nation - 3/22/2011
Date: 3/22/2011
Result: Miami R1, Elena Baltacha def. Sybille Bammer 3-6 7-6 7-6
Why it matters:
- Baltacha needs wins like these if she wants to make the big run British women's tennis needs to inspire some up-and-comers. Sure, this type of win might not make a 7-year old good athlete decide tennis is what she wants to do with her life, but gritty, grind-it-out wins might inspire the other British players already on the scene to take training (and fighting to the last point) more seriously. Heather Watson and Laura Robson take note!
- Bammer is another mom on the tour, and while her results haven't been as impressive as someone like Clijsters, her efforts might be more impressive. Clijsters has earned enough and has a high enough ranking that she can pick and choose when she wants to be a tennis player and when she wants to be a stay-at-home mom. Bammer needs to grind it out week after week on tour to maintain her ranking. It's that kind of toughness that has her 2-0 lifetime on Serena Williams. Cheer for Sybille sometime.
- This is one of those matches that makes me love tennis. Bammer won more points and more games, but Baltacha won the match. It's all about winning the right points.
Honorable Mentions:
- Miami Qualifying Final Rd, Lucie Hradecka def. Irina Falconi - 61 57 61 - Hradecka was destined to be a low top-100 player for her whole career, but 2011 has been amazing. She has no really bad losses (though losing R1 in Australia to Alberta Brianti wasn't ideal) and a LOT of good wins. I don't expect anything crazy for her, but why not a top 50 debut?
- Miami Qualifying Final Rd, Grigor Dimitrov def. Nicolas Massu - 62 63 - the long touted successor to the current generation of top players is having a solid year. These are the matches he can't lose if he wants to set up a massive charge later this year - and it looks like he's coasting.
Result: Miami R1, Elena Baltacha def. Sybille Bammer 3-6 7-6 7-6
Why it matters:
- Baltacha needs wins like these if she wants to make the big run British women's tennis needs to inspire some up-and-comers. Sure, this type of win might not make a 7-year old good athlete decide tennis is what she wants to do with her life, but gritty, grind-it-out wins might inspire the other British players already on the scene to take training (and fighting to the last point) more seriously. Heather Watson and Laura Robson take note!
- Bammer is another mom on the tour, and while her results haven't been as impressive as someone like Clijsters, her efforts might be more impressive. Clijsters has earned enough and has a high enough ranking that she can pick and choose when she wants to be a tennis player and when she wants to be a stay-at-home mom. Bammer needs to grind it out week after week on tour to maintain her ranking. It's that kind of toughness that has her 2-0 lifetime on Serena Williams. Cheer for Sybille sometime.
- This is one of those matches that makes me love tennis. Bammer won more points and more games, but Baltacha won the match. It's all about winning the right points.
Honorable Mentions:
- Miami Qualifying Final Rd, Lucie Hradecka def. Irina Falconi - 61 57 61 - Hradecka was destined to be a low top-100 player for her whole career, but 2011 has been amazing. She has no really bad losses (though losing R1 in Australia to Alberta Brianti wasn't ideal) and a LOT of good wins. I don't expect anything crazy for her, but why not a top 50 debut?
- Miami Qualifying Final Rd, Grigor Dimitrov def. Nicolas Massu - 62 63 - the long touted successor to the current generation of top players is having a solid year. These are the matches he can't lose if he wants to set up a massive charge later this year - and it looks like he's coasting.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
South American duel - 3/21/2011
Date: 3/21/2011
Result: Miami Qualifying R1, Paul Capdeville def. Alejandro Falla, 7-5 7-6
Why it matters:
- Capdeville's coming off an inspiring tie against the US in Davis Cup, where he took out John Isner, and played well against Andy Roddick. These performances may revitalize the career of a player who had potential, growing up in the wake of the incredible results of countryman Marcelo Rios, and then having Nicolas Massu and Fernando Gonzalez as contemporaries. His behavior on court has also been questioned as possible evidence that he is too mentally fragile to compete at the highest level. However, maybe after the positive experience at Davis Cup, he can put together a run.
- Remember when Falla was going to pull off the unthinkable by taking down Federer in the first round of Wimbledon? He had decent results immediately after that inspiring performance, but overall he is 10-18 since blowing his lead to Federer, and an even more depressing 3-10 since a subsequent loss to Mardy Fish in Davis Cup at home in Colombia. Falla has the talent, and enough of a non-traditional game to make life difficult for any number of players. If he can let the disappointments of the 2010 summer go, there's no reason he can't get into the top 50.
- Miami is traditionally a haven for Latin American players. In this battle between two South Americans, Capdeville came out on top, but keep an eye out during the event for a strong and maybe surprising performance by a Latin American during the event.
Honorable Mentions:
- Miami Qualifying R1, Michelle Larcher de Brito def. Magdalena Rybarikova - 26 75 60 - Is the young Portuguese phenom ready to get back to the upper echelons? After grunt-gate 2009, the sky was the limit for Larcher de Brito, but numerous setbacks have her requiring wildcards into qualifying of events like Miami. This is a good win over another fallen starlet, Rybarikova, who needs to regroup after being a top 50 fixture just a year ago (and a Memphis finalist in February!)
- Miami Qualifying R1, Lauren Davis def. Jill Craybas - 63 57 61 - The new generation American taking out the old generation. Good win for Davis, who is still developing and could be a bright spot for the US in the future. But Craybas is clinging to relevance at this point. If she had even been the caliber player of another player who hung around for a LONG time, Amy Frazier, then maybe she would be unsatisfied with her current results. But given that Craybas is not so far below where she's been most of her career, I don't see the end of her career coming for a fairly long while.
Result: Miami Qualifying R1, Paul Capdeville def. Alejandro Falla, 7-5 7-6
Why it matters:
- Capdeville's coming off an inspiring tie against the US in Davis Cup, where he took out John Isner, and played well against Andy Roddick. These performances may revitalize the career of a player who had potential, growing up in the wake of the incredible results of countryman Marcelo Rios, and then having Nicolas Massu and Fernando Gonzalez as contemporaries. His behavior on court has also been questioned as possible evidence that he is too mentally fragile to compete at the highest level. However, maybe after the positive experience at Davis Cup, he can put together a run.
- Remember when Falla was going to pull off the unthinkable by taking down Federer in the first round of Wimbledon? He had decent results immediately after that inspiring performance, but overall he is 10-18 since blowing his lead to Federer, and an even more depressing 3-10 since a subsequent loss to Mardy Fish in Davis Cup at home in Colombia. Falla has the talent, and enough of a non-traditional game to make life difficult for any number of players. If he can let the disappointments of the 2010 summer go, there's no reason he can't get into the top 50.
- Miami is traditionally a haven for Latin American players. In this battle between two South Americans, Capdeville came out on top, but keep an eye out during the event for a strong and maybe surprising performance by a Latin American during the event.
Honorable Mentions:
- Miami Qualifying R1, Michelle Larcher de Brito def. Magdalena Rybarikova - 26 75 60 - Is the young Portuguese phenom ready to get back to the upper echelons? After grunt-gate 2009, the sky was the limit for Larcher de Brito, but numerous setbacks have her requiring wildcards into qualifying of events like Miami. This is a good win over another fallen starlet, Rybarikova, who needs to regroup after being a top 50 fixture just a year ago (and a Memphis finalist in February!)
- Miami Qualifying R1, Lauren Davis def. Jill Craybas - 63 57 61 - The new generation American taking out the old generation. Good win for Davis, who is still developing and could be a bright spot for the US in the future. But Craybas is clinging to relevance at this point. If she had even been the caliber player of another player who hung around for a LONG time, Amy Frazier, then maybe she would be unsatisfied with her current results. But given that Craybas is not so far below where she's been most of her career, I don't see the end of her career coming for a fairly long while.
Monday, March 21, 2011
The real number 1? - 3/20/2011
Date: 3/20/2011
Result: Indian Wells F, Novak Djokovic def. Rafael Nadal 4-6 6-3 6-2
Why it matters:
- Novak kept up his roll. Still undefeated this year. Won the biggest events so far. Took down #1 in the world. This was his first victory in a final over Rafa. And moreover, it looked like he was mentally down through the first set and had to come from behind against a tough competitor like Nadal. As impressive as his three wins over Federer this year have been, this was another step up - he was never behind like this against Federer. Bravo, Novak.
- Nadal's serve is REALLY a problem. The commentators wouldn't stop talking about this, so apologies for being repetitive for those who watched the US broadcast, but he will need to resolve his issues. It is almost like a Michael Chang/Lleyton Hewitt issue where he's losing control by trying to add extra power. I think since this event seemed to be the first time he's really struggled, we'll hold off on calling his new serve experiment a one-and-done success (that one being his US Open victory). However, we'll see if Uncle Toni can resolve this issues in time for Miami - and more importantly - in preparation for the clay season.
- One final note looking forward. Djokovic has certainly made a statement since winning the Davis Cup with his countrymen, and he deserves all the accolades he's been given. But it's mid-March. We still have Miami upcoming, and then we go full steam into the clay court season. A season where Novak has shown he can play with the best (given his results in 2009, most notably against Nadal in Madrid) - but also where he struggled with allergies all of last year. Last year seemed somewhat of an anomaly, but can we really be sure? When a player has an uncontrollable malady - it's not a fitness issue, it's an allergy issue - it's too risky to say "he's going to run away with number 1" until we get a better sense of what the European conditions will be like. Because we know that Nadal will most likely dominate the clay once again, so if Novak doesn't do everything possible to keep pace, they could be in a massive battle for year-end number one at the end of the year.
Honorable Mention:
- Indian Wells F, Caroline Wozniacki def. Marion Bartoli - 61 26 63 - Caro keeps winning the non-majors. This is the 5th straight Premier Mandatory/Premier 5 event (combined, these two levels would be comparable to the ATP's Masters Series), having won in Canada, Tokyo, Beijing (all in 2010), Dubai and Indian Wells. It would be hard to fathom an ATP player winning 5 Masters in a row. Her level of play varied, and her frustration and expectations got the better of her for a period in the middle of the match, but in the end, her mental toughness nabbed her another title. There's no reason she won't keep this level up, but she should set her sights on being fresh and peaking at Roland Garros, if she wants to end a lot of the annoying questions about whether she deserves to be #1.
Result: Indian Wells F, Novak Djokovic def. Rafael Nadal 4-6 6-3 6-2
Why it matters:
- Novak kept up his roll. Still undefeated this year. Won the biggest events so far. Took down #1 in the world. This was his first victory in a final over Rafa. And moreover, it looked like he was mentally down through the first set and had to come from behind against a tough competitor like Nadal. As impressive as his three wins over Federer this year have been, this was another step up - he was never behind like this against Federer. Bravo, Novak.
- Nadal's serve is REALLY a problem. The commentators wouldn't stop talking about this, so apologies for being repetitive for those who watched the US broadcast, but he will need to resolve his issues. It is almost like a Michael Chang/Lleyton Hewitt issue where he's losing control by trying to add extra power. I think since this event seemed to be the first time he's really struggled, we'll hold off on calling his new serve experiment a one-and-done success (that one being his US Open victory). However, we'll see if Uncle Toni can resolve this issues in time for Miami - and more importantly - in preparation for the clay season.
- One final note looking forward. Djokovic has certainly made a statement since winning the Davis Cup with his countrymen, and he deserves all the accolades he's been given. But it's mid-March. We still have Miami upcoming, and then we go full steam into the clay court season. A season where Novak has shown he can play with the best (given his results in 2009, most notably against Nadal in Madrid) - but also where he struggled with allergies all of last year. Last year seemed somewhat of an anomaly, but can we really be sure? When a player has an uncontrollable malady - it's not a fitness issue, it's an allergy issue - it's too risky to say "he's going to run away with number 1" until we get a better sense of what the European conditions will be like. Because we know that Nadal will most likely dominate the clay once again, so if Novak doesn't do everything possible to keep pace, they could be in a massive battle for year-end number one at the end of the year.
Honorable Mention:
- Indian Wells F, Caroline Wozniacki def. Marion Bartoli - 61 26 63 - Caro keeps winning the non-majors. This is the 5th straight Premier Mandatory/Premier 5 event (combined, these two levels would be comparable to the ATP's Masters Series), having won in Canada, Tokyo, Beijing (all in 2010), Dubai and Indian Wells. It would be hard to fathom an ATP player winning 5 Masters in a row. Her level of play varied, and her frustration and expectations got the better of her for a period in the middle of the match, but in the end, her mental toughness nabbed her another title. There's no reason she won't keep this level up, but she should set her sights on being fresh and peaking at Roland Garros, if she wants to end a lot of the annoying questions about whether she deserves to be #1.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
A Reversal of Fortune - 3/19/2011
Date: 3/19/2011
Result: Indian Wells SF, Rafael Nadal def. Juan Martin del Potro 6-4 6-4
Why it matters:
- These two haven't met since del Potro crushed Nadal 6-2 6-2 6-2 in the 2009 US Open semifinals, and I think Rafa had revenge keen on his mind. After three straight losses, albeit in 09, to del Potro, Rafa wanted to avoid four in a row (only Davydenko has pulled off a streak of 4 wins - thanks ESPN for that stat!) And when Rafa's "A" game didn't appear to be working early, Rafa made the crucial tactical changes that were required. He kept the ball low, mixed up paces, and ground out an important win. This moves Rafa back into the top 3 in the "Race" (year-to-date) points, which sets him up perfectly for what should be another big run on clay to protect his #1 ranking.
- This was still a really good performance for Juan Martin. Sure, he had chances to win, and that would've be an UNBELIEVABLY good performance, but going down to the world #1 in two competitive sets is not bad at all. And, not to harp on the "Race" concept, but del Potro is already set up for a top 10 finish if he keeps up his pace - and he's only going to better.
Honorable Mention:
- Indian Wells SF, Novak Djokovic def. Roger Federer - 63 36 62 - Though it was also the opposite result from the 2009 US Open semifinals, I have less to say about this match because it went exactly as I expected it. Djokovic has come out firing against Roger in each of their matches this year, Roger mounts some kind of comeback in the 2nd, and then Novak finishes him off. This time, Roger actually won the 2nd, and that was to be expected, too. After coming from a break down in both Melbourne and Dubai to win the 2nd set, it would be hard to expect Djokovic to do it again, but he regrouped at the right moment in the 3rd and won an expected victory.
Result: Indian Wells SF, Rafael Nadal def. Juan Martin del Potro 6-4 6-4
Why it matters:
- These two haven't met since del Potro crushed Nadal 6-2 6-2 6-2 in the 2009 US Open semifinals, and I think Rafa had revenge keen on his mind. After three straight losses, albeit in 09, to del Potro, Rafa wanted to avoid four in a row (only Davydenko has pulled off a streak of 4 wins - thanks ESPN for that stat!) And when Rafa's "A" game didn't appear to be working early, Rafa made the crucial tactical changes that were required. He kept the ball low, mixed up paces, and ground out an important win. This moves Rafa back into the top 3 in the "Race" (year-to-date) points, which sets him up perfectly for what should be another big run on clay to protect his #1 ranking.
- This was still a really good performance for Juan Martin. Sure, he had chances to win, and that would've be an UNBELIEVABLY good performance, but going down to the world #1 in two competitive sets is not bad at all. And, not to harp on the "Race" concept, but del Potro is already set up for a top 10 finish if he keeps up his pace - and he's only going to better.
Honorable Mention:
- Indian Wells SF, Novak Djokovic def. Roger Federer - 63 36 62 - Though it was also the opposite result from the 2009 US Open semifinals, I have less to say about this match because it went exactly as I expected it. Djokovic has come out firing against Roger in each of their matches this year, Roger mounts some kind of comeback in the 2nd, and then Novak finishes him off. This time, Roger actually won the 2nd, and that was to be expected, too. After coming from a break down in both Melbourne and Dubai to win the 2nd set, it would be hard to expect Djokovic to do it again, but he regrouped at the right moment in the 3rd and won an expected victory.
Saturday, March 19, 2011
Dominating his countryman - 3/18/2011
Date: 3/18/2011
Result: Indian Wells QF, Roger Federer def. Stanislas Wawrinka 6-3 6-4
Why it matters:
- Federer should win this match almost every time, let's get that out of the way. He's proven everything he needs to prove, and while the talk of "slump" is all around him, he's still unquestionably one of the main guys to beat, and we all know that deep down inside. You do have to feel a little bad for him that he set such a high standard for himself because it's impossible to keep up the pace, so when he loses he gets a ton of questions why. But he also relishes being #1 and makes no bones about his desire to get back there. My main point is that he doesn't get credit for these wins, but that's the environment that the cult of Federer has created.
- Notwithstanding everything above, Wawrinka should also be able to put in a halfway decent performance against Federer. Wawrinka has consistently rolled over against his more accomplished compatriot, and what's worse, seems like he could care less. He tweeted "36 46 in 1h...not bad ......hahahahaha" following his match. I know there is an element of sarcasm in the tweet, but still, no real remorse. I wish Wawrinka would just decide that his sometimes doubles partner is someone he should be beating and actually try. It would make these matches between the two ones I'd want to watch.
Honorable Mention:
- Indian Wells SF, Caroline Wozniacki def. Maria Sharapova - 61 62 - Maria just made too many errors and Wozniacki was too solid. I'd love to see someone (maybe not Maria, since she has a lot of weapons) dare Caroline to dictate from uncomfortable positions. Moonball her, dropshot her (queen of the dropshot Martinez Sanchez has a good record against Wozniacki), do ANYTHING so that she can't grind you down. Just further evidence that Wozniacki has a great game plan when it might take something that extreme to beat her. It's better than losing 1 and 2.
Result: Indian Wells QF, Roger Federer def. Stanislas Wawrinka 6-3 6-4
Why it matters:
- Federer should win this match almost every time, let's get that out of the way. He's proven everything he needs to prove, and while the talk of "slump" is all around him, he's still unquestionably one of the main guys to beat, and we all know that deep down inside. You do have to feel a little bad for him that he set such a high standard for himself because it's impossible to keep up the pace, so when he loses he gets a ton of questions why. But he also relishes being #1 and makes no bones about his desire to get back there. My main point is that he doesn't get credit for these wins, but that's the environment that the cult of Federer has created.
- Notwithstanding everything above, Wawrinka should also be able to put in a halfway decent performance against Federer. Wawrinka has consistently rolled over against his more accomplished compatriot, and what's worse, seems like he could care less. He tweeted "36 46 in 1h...not bad ......hahahahaha" following his match. I know there is an element of sarcasm in the tweet, but still, no real remorse. I wish Wawrinka would just decide that his sometimes doubles partner is someone he should be beating and actually try. It would make these matches between the two ones I'd want to watch.
Honorable Mention:
- Indian Wells SF, Caroline Wozniacki def. Maria Sharapova - 61 62 - Maria just made too many errors and Wozniacki was too solid. I'd love to see someone (maybe not Maria, since she has a lot of weapons) dare Caroline to dictate from uncomfortable positions. Moonball her, dropshot her (queen of the dropshot Martinez Sanchez has a good record against Wozniacki), do ANYTHING so that she can't grind you down. Just further evidence that Wozniacki has a great game plan when it might take something that extreme to beat her. It's better than losing 1 and 2.
Friday, March 18, 2011
Showing why he's the best - 3/17/2011
Date: 3/17/2011
Result: Indian Wells QF, Rafael Nadal def. Ivo Karlovic 5-7 6-1 7-6
Why it matters:
- These matches are why Rafa is so impressive. He grinds out tough wins often. And he doesn't make it look easy. For me, that's great because you feel like you can relate to him. I know when I play, nothing's a cakewalk. In fact, when it all goes too smoothly, it's not as satisfying as when I work really hard for the victory. I think Nadal feels the same way - he wants to work for it. I sometimes wonder if he'll burn out on clay, though, because it's been so easy for so long. But in the near future, I think his motivation and attitude during matches like these will sustain his run at the top of the game.
- To pick up on my thoughts from the honorable mentions section of a previous post, Karlovic is really playing well. Better than just a good serve. I'm curious where he goes from here when we hit the clay, because his movement is so suspect you expect some poor results. If that happens, will that break his momentum? Also, he's hilarious on Twitter so I suggest you follow him! @ivokarlovic
Honorable Mention:
-Indian Wells QF, Caroline Wozniacki def. Victoria Azarenka - 30 ret. - I really wanted to see if Vika could put together a complete match against Wozniacki, but it wasn't to be. Wozniacki is a worthy number 1, and was the likely winner in this matchup, but her critics will scream "cakewalk draw" and point to matches like this for evidence.
Result: Indian Wells QF, Rafael Nadal def. Ivo Karlovic 5-7 6-1 7-6
Why it matters:
- These matches are why Rafa is so impressive. He grinds out tough wins often. And he doesn't make it look easy. For me, that's great because you feel like you can relate to him. I know when I play, nothing's a cakewalk. In fact, when it all goes too smoothly, it's not as satisfying as when I work really hard for the victory. I think Nadal feels the same way - he wants to work for it. I sometimes wonder if he'll burn out on clay, though, because it's been so easy for so long. But in the near future, I think his motivation and attitude during matches like these will sustain his run at the top of the game.
- To pick up on my thoughts from the honorable mentions section of a previous post, Karlovic is really playing well. Better than just a good serve. I'm curious where he goes from here when we hit the clay, because his movement is so suspect you expect some poor results. If that happens, will that break his momentum? Also, he's hilarious on Twitter so I suggest you follow him! @ivokarlovic
Honorable Mention:
-Indian Wells QF, Caroline Wozniacki def. Victoria Azarenka - 30 ret. - I really wanted to see if Vika could put together a complete match against Wozniacki, but it wasn't to be. Wozniacki is a worthy number 1, and was the likely winner in this matchup, but her critics will scream "cakewalk draw" and point to matches like this for evidence.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Another Shotmaker upsets Roddick - 3/16/2011
Date: 3/16/2011
Result: Indian Wells R4, Richard Gasquet def. Andy Roddick 6-3 7-6
Why it matters:
- Roddick is extremely passive as a player now. That's been a running theme that commentators have been harping on for the last year, since he decided to not be passive against Nadal in Miami and turned the match around for a win. There's nothing to verify my claim, but I've been saying this for YEARS. The Roddick that won the US Open under Brad Gilbert is not the Roddick we've seen for the last 6-7 years. And it's obvious because he lets flashier shotmakers take their shots against him, and ultimately pays the price too often when these opponents are on. Think about some of his "surprise" losses in bigger events: Wawrinka, Tipsarevic, Gabashvili, Monfils, Kohlschreiber, Baghdatis and Gasquet here (and previously). They all can hit some amazing winners out of nowhere, and Roddick lets them. Of course his strategy will work often enough, maybe more often than not, but why let the match be in his opponents hands if he could dictate start to finish?
- Gasquet needs matches like this. His ranking isn't terrible at 21, but his results don't seem like the results of a #21. A deep run here keeps Gasquet relevant, especially on a slower hardcourt that might not seem tailored to his game. If he can gain confidence over the next few weeks, maybe he can excel on the clay, where he should have been excelling for the last few years, and peak during the grass season.
Honorable Mentions:
- Indian Wells R4, Novak Djokovic def. Viktor Troicki - 60 61 - Djokovic is on fire this year. Not only has he not lost, but he's barely lost sets (or games for that matter). Back to back 0 and 1 results just highlight how well he's playing. Everyone thinks the Davis Cup is the catalyst for his improved play, and while I think it's helped, I think the more important factor is that he stopped worrying about his image. The backlash against his family's antics during matches to the Roddick v. Djokovic war of words at the '08 US Open to the unfavorable view many players had about his impressions put a damper on Novak's spirit. The last several months he's seemed happier in general, and that's made a big difference in his results.
- Indian Wells R4, Ivo Karlovic def. Albert Montanes - 76 62 - Karlovic's ranking plummetted due to injury, and honestly the many weaknesses in his game. I think he's inspired now to make a big run before his body breaks down again, and his wins in Indian Wells, including this one, show he's learned how to break serve more often. He's been denied a Wild Card into Miami qualifying, which is a bit harsh in my opinion, but I guess given his result in Indian Wells, the rest of the players a breathing a sigh of relief.
Result: Indian Wells R4, Richard Gasquet def. Andy Roddick 6-3 7-6
Why it matters:
- Roddick is extremely passive as a player now. That's been a running theme that commentators have been harping on for the last year, since he decided to not be passive against Nadal in Miami and turned the match around for a win. There's nothing to verify my claim, but I've been saying this for YEARS. The Roddick that won the US Open under Brad Gilbert is not the Roddick we've seen for the last 6-7 years. And it's obvious because he lets flashier shotmakers take their shots against him, and ultimately pays the price too often when these opponents are on. Think about some of his "surprise" losses in bigger events: Wawrinka, Tipsarevic, Gabashvili, Monfils, Kohlschreiber, Baghdatis and Gasquet here (and previously). They all can hit some amazing winners out of nowhere, and Roddick lets them. Of course his strategy will work often enough, maybe more often than not, but why let the match be in his opponents hands if he could dictate start to finish?
- Gasquet needs matches like this. His ranking isn't terrible at 21, but his results don't seem like the results of a #21. A deep run here keeps Gasquet relevant, especially on a slower hardcourt that might not seem tailored to his game. If he can gain confidence over the next few weeks, maybe he can excel on the clay, where he should have been excelling for the last few years, and peak during the grass season.
Honorable Mentions:
- Indian Wells R4, Novak Djokovic def. Viktor Troicki - 60 61 - Djokovic is on fire this year. Not only has he not lost, but he's barely lost sets (or games for that matter). Back to back 0 and 1 results just highlight how well he's playing. Everyone thinks the Davis Cup is the catalyst for his improved play, and while I think it's helped, I think the more important factor is that he stopped worrying about his image. The backlash against his family's antics during matches to the Roddick v. Djokovic war of words at the '08 US Open to the unfavorable view many players had about his impressions put a damper on Novak's spirit. The last several months he's seemed happier in general, and that's made a big difference in his results.
- Indian Wells R4, Ivo Karlovic def. Albert Montanes - 76 62 - Karlovic's ranking plummetted due to injury, and honestly the many weaknesses in his game. I think he's inspired now to make a big run before his body breaks down again, and his wins in Indian Wells, including this one, show he's learned how to break serve more often. He's been denied a Wild Card into Miami qualifying, which is a bit harsh in my opinion, but I guess given his result in Indian Wells, the rest of the players a breathing a sigh of relief.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
A Glimpse of the Future - 3/15/2011
[To my reader(s)! Sorry this posting is so late... sometimes work messes up my schedule, but I'll always catch up on my blog!]
Date: 3/15/2011
Result: Indian Wells R3, Ryan Harrison def. Milos Raonic 7-6 4-6 6-4
Why it matters:
- When do these hyped matches EVER live up to their billing? Remember when the Murray-Djokovic Australian Open Final was the true start to the next big rivalry, and it was going to start out with a 5-set grinding battle? (you should remember, it was just in January!) Well, the media went crazy with anticipation for this match, and it was good... REALLY good. And what's more, it was a bit of a surprising result, and here's why...
- Harrison hasn't been able to build much since his breakthrough win over Ljubicic at the US Open last year. His momentum may have been blunted by blowing match points against Stakhovsky in his next match at the Open, but following the long winter break, and with a winnable R1 in Australia, it seemed like things were set up for Ryan to make his expected move up the rankings. And then... nothing. His tough win over Chardy was a big enough surprise, and made Indian Wells a good result for him already. Making the 4th round makes this event another important step in the development of the brightest American hope.
- For Raonic, he's already overachieved in every event he's played. And after his win in San Jose (a 250 level event) and final in Memphis (a 500 level event), it only seemed logical he make a run into at least the 4th round of his first Masters Series, especially with a navigable draw. He really should have won this match on paper, but it's not a disaster in actuality. Without the elevated expectations, at the start of the year I think Raonic would've unquestionably given anything for a R3 appearance in Indian Wells. He should use that lens to analyze this loss, and turn his attention to Miami. There's no reason he can't get another decent draw and make his big Masters Series run there instead.
Honorable Mentions:
- Indian Wells R4, Victoria Azarenka def. Agnieszka Radwanska - 46 63 76 - Obviously it's a close match, which is interesting itself, but in a match between two good friends, Azarenka was able to dig deep and save four match points to win the type of match she hasn't proven she can regularly win. Azarenka's got talent to beat anyone, potentially badly. It's the tight moments that trouble her and make me wonder if she can get to the next level. These tight wins over top players make me start to believe.
- Indian Wells R4, Marion Bartoli def. Kim Clijsters - 36 31 ret. - Bartoli can be tough, but on this day, Kim should've won. Clijsters' shoulder injury seems serious enough if she was willing to retire, yet she says she's planning to play Miami. Whatever Kim decides about next week, she should rest the shoulder over the next month or two, and make sure she's ready for a run on the clay. As much as she may dislike playing on clay, Kim's got the game (2 time finalist!) and experience to win the French, and a win there would continue to bolster her hall of fame resume, and keep alive the "Kim" slam. She won't win coming in with no match play. Clijsters should (and technically must) play the mandatory event in Madrid, and then would be well served to play either Rome or near home in Brussels, but only if her shoulder is truly healed.
Date: 3/15/2011
Result: Indian Wells R3, Ryan Harrison def. Milos Raonic 7-6 4-6 6-4
Why it matters:
- When do these hyped matches EVER live up to their billing? Remember when the Murray-Djokovic Australian Open Final was the true start to the next big rivalry, and it was going to start out with a 5-set grinding battle? (you should remember, it was just in January!) Well, the media went crazy with anticipation for this match, and it was good... REALLY good. And what's more, it was a bit of a surprising result, and here's why...
- Harrison hasn't been able to build much since his breakthrough win over Ljubicic at the US Open last year. His momentum may have been blunted by blowing match points against Stakhovsky in his next match at the Open, but following the long winter break, and with a winnable R1 in Australia, it seemed like things were set up for Ryan to make his expected move up the rankings. And then... nothing. His tough win over Chardy was a big enough surprise, and made Indian Wells a good result for him already. Making the 4th round makes this event another important step in the development of the brightest American hope.
- For Raonic, he's already overachieved in every event he's played. And after his win in San Jose (a 250 level event) and final in Memphis (a 500 level event), it only seemed logical he make a run into at least the 4th round of his first Masters Series, especially with a navigable draw. He really should have won this match on paper, but it's not a disaster in actuality. Without the elevated expectations, at the start of the year I think Raonic would've unquestionably given anything for a R3 appearance in Indian Wells. He should use that lens to analyze this loss, and turn his attention to Miami. There's no reason he can't get another decent draw and make his big Masters Series run there instead.
Honorable Mentions:
- Indian Wells R4, Victoria Azarenka def. Agnieszka Radwanska - 46 63 76 - Obviously it's a close match, which is interesting itself, but in a match between two good friends, Azarenka was able to dig deep and save four match points to win the type of match she hasn't proven she can regularly win. Azarenka's got talent to beat anyone, potentially badly. It's the tight moments that trouble her and make me wonder if she can get to the next level. These tight wins over top players make me start to believe.
- Indian Wells R4, Marion Bartoli def. Kim Clijsters - 36 31 ret. - Bartoli can be tough, but on this day, Kim should've won. Clijsters' shoulder injury seems serious enough if she was willing to retire, yet she says she's planning to play Miami. Whatever Kim decides about next week, she should rest the shoulder over the next month or two, and make sure she's ready for a run on the clay. As much as she may dislike playing on clay, Kim's got the game (2 time finalist!) and experience to win the French, and a win there would continue to bolster her hall of fame resume, and keep alive the "Kim" slam. She won't win coming in with no match play. Clijsters should (and technically must) play the mandatory event in Madrid, and then would be well served to play either Rome or near home in Brussels, but only if her shoulder is truly healed.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Exposing Weaknesses - 3/14/11
Date: 3/14/11
Result: Indian Wells R3, Dinara Safina def. Sam Stosur 7-6 6-4
Why it matters:
- Tactically, Safina started out impressively. She picked on Stosur's backhand consistently and Sam paid the price. She started to let go of that strategy too much in the middle of the 1st set which let Stosur back in the match. I'm surprised no one has tried to use against Stosur the strategy people have been employing against Federer recently - pound balls to Sam's forehand to then expose the open court on her weaker backhand side and force her to hit a winner on the run. Dinara's double faulting was out of control, but it almost didn't bother me because she was winning so many free points on serve when she did get the serve in. The only concern is she didn't recognize her dominance in the majority of rallies once the point got going. She could've spun more first serves in (well, in theory she can, though in practice...), especially at critical times, and relied on the good groundstroking that is the cornerstone of her game. All in all, Dinara played a level-headed match with a real strategy. I'm thinking at least part of the improvement tactically is due to Davide Sanguinetti, Dinara's new coach, but I don't want to give him all the credit.
- This is Safina's first win over a top 10 player since beating a slumping Schiavone in New Haven last year, and her first win over a top 5 player since beating Venus Williams in Rome in 2009. She really showed some emotion in her win, but I don't think she's set up for a meltdown. Look for a tenacious battle with Sharapova next round, an opponent who also is struggling with some confidence issues.
- Speaking of confidence issues, where did the "consistent major contender Sam Stosur" go? At the French Open in 2010 she looked like a future number 1 and an all surface threat, but her results since the French make her seem more and more like a clay-court specialist - a rare moniker for an Australian. Her serve was on fire during the match, and that's what kept her from taking a more severe beating. But if she doesn't pick up the intensity in the next few weeks, she won't manage to match her impressive clay results from 2010.
Honorable Mentions:
- Indian Wells R3, Somdev Devvarman def. Xavier Malisse - 61 36 76 - This appeared to be Malisse's obligatory really good week in a big enough event to buoy his ranking for the next 12 months, and while R3 at a Masters Series 1000 is good, this was a match I expected him to win. Devvarman, on the other hand, is fast rising this year, and is having some impressive results. To be fair, his draw in Indian Wells hasn't been the most difficult, but he's made the most of it. I don't expect too much, though, against Nadal next round.
- Indian Wells R3, Philipp Kohlschreiber def. Robin Soderling - 76 64 - Everyone had been talking about how hot Soderling has been this year, but if you look at his results, none of them were that surprising and none made you necessarily think he was becoming unbeatable. Of his three titles this year, two were indoors (where he has always excelled, even before he was an "elite" player), and the other was in Brisbane, which has a covered roof that makes it as close to indoors as possible for an outdoor event. His outdoor hardcourt results have always been middling, and this is further evidence.
Result: Indian Wells R3, Dinara Safina def. Sam Stosur 7-6 6-4
Why it matters:
- Tactically, Safina started out impressively. She picked on Stosur's backhand consistently and Sam paid the price. She started to let go of that strategy too much in the middle of the 1st set which let Stosur back in the match. I'm surprised no one has tried to use against Stosur the strategy people have been employing against Federer recently - pound balls to Sam's forehand to then expose the open court on her weaker backhand side and force her to hit a winner on the run. Dinara's double faulting was out of control, but it almost didn't bother me because she was winning so many free points on serve when she did get the serve in. The only concern is she didn't recognize her dominance in the majority of rallies once the point got going. She could've spun more first serves in (well, in theory she can, though in practice...), especially at critical times, and relied on the good groundstroking that is the cornerstone of her game. All in all, Dinara played a level-headed match with a real strategy. I'm thinking at least part of the improvement tactically is due to Davide Sanguinetti, Dinara's new coach, but I don't want to give him all the credit.
- This is Safina's first win over a top 10 player since beating a slumping Schiavone in New Haven last year, and her first win over a top 5 player since beating Venus Williams in Rome in 2009. She really showed some emotion in her win, but I don't think she's set up for a meltdown. Look for a tenacious battle with Sharapova next round, an opponent who also is struggling with some confidence issues.
- Speaking of confidence issues, where did the "consistent major contender Sam Stosur" go? At the French Open in 2010 she looked like a future number 1 and an all surface threat, but her results since the French make her seem more and more like a clay-court specialist - a rare moniker for an Australian. Her serve was on fire during the match, and that's what kept her from taking a more severe beating. But if she doesn't pick up the intensity in the next few weeks, she won't manage to match her impressive clay results from 2010.
Honorable Mentions:
- Indian Wells R3, Somdev Devvarman def. Xavier Malisse - 61 36 76 - This appeared to be Malisse's obligatory really good week in a big enough event to buoy his ranking for the next 12 months, and while R3 at a Masters Series 1000 is good, this was a match I expected him to win. Devvarman, on the other hand, is fast rising this year, and is having some impressive results. To be fair, his draw in Indian Wells hasn't been the most difficult, but he's made the most of it. I don't expect too much, though, against Nadal next round.
- Indian Wells R3, Philipp Kohlschreiber def. Robin Soderling - 76 64 - Everyone had been talking about how hot Soderling has been this year, but if you look at his results, none of them were that surprising and none made you necessarily think he was becoming unbeatable. Of his three titles this year, two were indoors (where he has always excelled, even before he was an "elite" player), and the other was in Brisbane, which has a covered roof that makes it as close to indoors as possible for an outdoor event. His outdoor hardcourt results have always been middling, and this is further evidence.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Late Night Marathon - 3/13/2011
Date: 3/13/2011
Result: Indian Wells, R3 Dominika Cibulkova def. Vera Zvonareva 4-6 7-6 6-4
Why it matters:
- This was a good-old dog fight between two scrappy players. Sure, Vera has elevated her game to become an elite player on tour, but look at someone like Nadal - he's a good example of an "elite" grinder. I really enjoy watching players who are looking to squeeze every ounce of talent out of themselves; it's even more fun when both players in a match try to for over three hours.
- Speaking of Vera being elite, aren't these the types of matches she should be winning now? Emotional and mental meltdowns seemed to be a thing of the past for Zvonareva. While this is nowhere near the level of some of her more famous on court antics, Vera's rise up the ranks has been largely due to her new-found ability to regularly close out these types of matches. You should be able to count on Vera in crunch time, but losses like this make that harder to do. Is this the beginning of the end? Doubtful. You can't win 'em all, and Vera's already won a premier title in Doha this year. She will bounce back soon.
- Cibulkova continues her good form this year. After her amazing run to the Roland Garros semifinals in 2009 (including a quarterfinal pasting of Maria Sharapova), she had some difficulty living up to increased expectations. However, 2011 has been marked so far with solid wins and no bad losses, including taking down Wozniacki and now Zvonareva on hardcourts, which she's had mixed results on in the past. There's no reason she can't keep up this up for the rest of 2011.
Honorable Mentions:
-Indian Wells, R2 - Stanislas Wawrinka def. Nikolay Davydenko - 36 76 64 - Davydenko is almost back. Even when Davydenko was top 5, this wouldn't be a horrible loss, but at his current ranking, he can't afford any more matches characterized as "not a bad loss". Davydenko can be another top 10 stalwart, but when you're seeded high and have easier draws from the start, it's obviously easier to put together solid results. Nikolay usually plays a lot in the clay season, and look for him to start to move his rank back up then. For Wawrinka, simply another good win.
-Indian Wells, R2 - Ryan Harrison def. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 63 76 - Technically an upset, this was an important win for Harrison. By the luck of the draw, Harrison got matched up with one of the most vulnerable of the top 32 seeds (GGL has been playing well, but is overranked at 25). After rough losses in winnable matches this year to Mannarino (at the Australian Open) and Serra (at Delray Beach), taking down Garcia-Lopez is a solid outing. It also sets up an intriguing match (glimpse into the future?) between Raonic and Harrison.
Result: Indian Wells, R3 Dominika Cibulkova def. Vera Zvonareva 4-6 7-6 6-4
Why it matters:
- This was a good-old dog fight between two scrappy players. Sure, Vera has elevated her game to become an elite player on tour, but look at someone like Nadal - he's a good example of an "elite" grinder. I really enjoy watching players who are looking to squeeze every ounce of talent out of themselves; it's even more fun when both players in a match try to for over three hours.
- Speaking of Vera being elite, aren't these the types of matches she should be winning now? Emotional and mental meltdowns seemed to be a thing of the past for Zvonareva. While this is nowhere near the level of some of her more famous on court antics, Vera's rise up the ranks has been largely due to her new-found ability to regularly close out these types of matches. You should be able to count on Vera in crunch time, but losses like this make that harder to do. Is this the beginning of the end? Doubtful. You can't win 'em all, and Vera's already won a premier title in Doha this year. She will bounce back soon.
- Cibulkova continues her good form this year. After her amazing run to the Roland Garros semifinals in 2009 (including a quarterfinal pasting of Maria Sharapova), she had some difficulty living up to increased expectations. However, 2011 has been marked so far with solid wins and no bad losses, including taking down Wozniacki and now Zvonareva on hardcourts, which she's had mixed results on in the past. There's no reason she can't keep up this up for the rest of 2011.
Honorable Mentions:
-Indian Wells, R2 - Stanislas Wawrinka def. Nikolay Davydenko - 36 76 64 - Davydenko is almost back. Even when Davydenko was top 5, this wouldn't be a horrible loss, but at his current ranking, he can't afford any more matches characterized as "not a bad loss". Davydenko can be another top 10 stalwart, but when you're seeded high and have easier draws from the start, it's obviously easier to put together solid results. Nikolay usually plays a lot in the clay season, and look for him to start to move his rank back up then. For Wawrinka, simply another good win.
-Indian Wells, R2 - Ryan Harrison def. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 63 76 - Technically an upset, this was an important win for Harrison. By the luck of the draw, Harrison got matched up with one of the most vulnerable of the top 32 seeds (GGL has been playing well, but is overranked at 25). After rough losses in winnable matches this year to Mannarino (at the Australian Open) and Serra (at Delray Beach), taking down Garcia-Lopez is a solid outing. It also sets up an intriguing match (glimpse into the future?) between Raonic and Harrison.
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Set up for a letdown - 3/12/2011
Date: 3/12/2011
Result: Indian Wells R2, Donald Young def. Andy Murray 7-6 6-3
Why it matters:
- "How did this happen?" seems to be the common view about this result. If we break it down, it isn't THAT shocking. Murray has to be going through a let down after the Australian Open final (lack of) performance he put in, and he also is probably rusty following an extended break since early February. Young, on the other hand, was well used to the Indian Wells conditions coming through the qualifying and winning a first round match (Murray had a bye). Additionally, the knock on Young has always been his lack of physicality. While I don't diminish the amazing talents of Murray, he's not going to overpower Young the way someone like Soderling or Verdasco could. I saw some of the match, and Murray just didn't dictate as well as he needed to. He played the passive tennis that most pundits think may prevent him from winning a major, and this time it cost him a 2nd round match.
- After Miami (where he would be well served to have a good result), Murray will have a long road ahead on the clay courts. Though no one expects him to seriously contend, if he keeps improving, little by little, on the clay as he has the last few years, there's no reason he can't build enough confidence to be a serious threat at Wimbledon again this year.
- Look at Young's reaction to winning this match (at about 3:00) in. I totally understand how happy he must be for winning, but I fear this seemed like a "I did it! I reached my dream" moment. I think Young is feisty and emotional, but he hasn't harnessed that like Lleyton Hewitt has successfully done. At the US Open in 2008, Young lost to Blake in 5 sets and really failed to conserve energy when necessary, which may have cost him the match in the end. Young can't rest on this win; he must build on this, ideally as quickly as possible by taking out Robredo next round. But based on his reaction, I think Young might take too much time celebrating and sink back into the shadows.
Honorable Mentions:
-Indian Wells R2, Juan Martin del Potro def. Ivan Ljubicic - 57 64 62 - del Potro is nowhere near his top level, but he's getting better and better. Meanwhile, Ljubicic's dream win last year is all a distant memory. Ivan's ranking is set to plummet, and his career may come to a close soon, too.
-Indian Wells R2, Dinara Safina def. Daniela Hantuchova - 76 64 - Is Safina ready to get back to the top of the game? This is a decent first step against a tough opponent, especially at Indian Wells. Two-time IW champion Hantuchova continues to frustrate her fans. After a title last month in Pattaya City, another early loss.
Result: Indian Wells R2, Donald Young def. Andy Murray 7-6 6-3
Why it matters:
- "How did this happen?" seems to be the common view about this result. If we break it down, it isn't THAT shocking. Murray has to be going through a let down after the Australian Open final (lack of) performance he put in, and he also is probably rusty following an extended break since early February. Young, on the other hand, was well used to the Indian Wells conditions coming through the qualifying and winning a first round match (Murray had a bye). Additionally, the knock on Young has always been his lack of physicality. While I don't diminish the amazing talents of Murray, he's not going to overpower Young the way someone like Soderling or Verdasco could. I saw some of the match, and Murray just didn't dictate as well as he needed to. He played the passive tennis that most pundits think may prevent him from winning a major, and this time it cost him a 2nd round match.
- After Miami (where he would be well served to have a good result), Murray will have a long road ahead on the clay courts. Though no one expects him to seriously contend, if he keeps improving, little by little, on the clay as he has the last few years, there's no reason he can't build enough confidence to be a serious threat at Wimbledon again this year.
- Look at Young's reaction to winning this match (at about 3:00) in. I totally understand how happy he must be for winning, but I fear this seemed like a "I did it! I reached my dream" moment. I think Young is feisty and emotional, but he hasn't harnessed that like Lleyton Hewitt has successfully done. At the US Open in 2008, Young lost to Blake in 5 sets and really failed to conserve energy when necessary, which may have cost him the match in the end. Young can't rest on this win; he must build on this, ideally as quickly as possible by taking out Robredo next round. But based on his reaction, I think Young might take too much time celebrating and sink back into the shadows.
Honorable Mentions:
-Indian Wells R2, Juan Martin del Potro def. Ivan Ljubicic - 57 64 62 - del Potro is nowhere near his top level, but he's getting better and better. Meanwhile, Ljubicic's dream win last year is all a distant memory. Ivan's ranking is set to plummet, and his career may come to a close soon, too.
-Indian Wells R2, Dinara Safina def. Daniela Hantuchova - 76 64 - Is Safina ready to get back to the top of the game? This is a decent first step against a tough opponent, especially at Indian Wells. Two-time IW champion Hantuchova continues to frustrate her fans. After a title last month in Pattaya City, another early loss.
Saturday, March 12, 2011
As tough as she seems? - 3/11/2011
Date: 3/11/2011
Result: Indian Wells R2, Shahar Peer def. Bethanie Mattek-Sands 4-6 7-6 6-3
Why it matters:
- Mattek-Sands has really developed enough variety in her game that she regularly troubles top players, and almost always beats the players she should. Mattek-Sands projects the confidence and the fight required to continue to move up the rankings, but her results in the majors and top level Premier events keep her ranking lower than it could be. In the last year, she has lost to beatable players like Rus, Bacsinszky, and Sprem in the big events, or pushed top players like Clijsters, Jankovic, or Peer to 3 sets with a reasonable chance to win and failed to close it out. She is also 0-3 in tour finals, further evidence that when push comes to shove, Mattek-Sands might not be as tough as she appears. With some extra work (maybe with a sports psychologist?) Bethanie could make a big push towards the top 30, before it's too late.
- Peer might be the opposite of Mattek-Sands, really getting the absolute most out of her talent. Peer is just a few wins away from reaching the top 10 for the first time in her career. It would be a tremendous accomplishment for the Israeli who seemed destined for a career where she would rank between 15 and 30. Peer is also peaking at a time where more accomplished players are struggling, leaving open a few top ten spots to those willing to take advantage.
Honorable Mentions:
- Indian Wells R1, Yen-Hsun Lu def. Lleyton Hewitt 62 63 - Lu is so unpredictable, having just lost to someone ranked 368 in the world, but we remember his big win at Wimbledon last year over Roddick. Lu continues to be a wild-card performer, blowing Hewitt off the court. If he Hewitt can't start to put together some solid wins, he will have to consider how much long he wants to play. It might be a bit early to write Hewitt off given that he beat Federer to win the title in Halle last year, but his good results are becoming rarer each month.
- Indian Wells R1, Nikolay Davydenko def. Fabio Fognini 57 62 64 - Fognini is another player who pushed the top guys but can't cross the finish line. But the bigger story is Davydenko, who has fallen since his extended break from tennis due to a wrist injury. Davydenko's game requires a lot of rhythm and timing, so it's not surprising he's been struggling to string a lot of wins together. His record in Indian Wells is poor, but his result in Miami, where he is a former champion, could be an early forecast for his year.
Result: Indian Wells R2, Shahar Peer def. Bethanie Mattek-Sands 4-6 7-6 6-3
Why it matters:
- Mattek-Sands has really developed enough variety in her game that she regularly troubles top players, and almost always beats the players she should. Mattek-Sands projects the confidence and the fight required to continue to move up the rankings, but her results in the majors and top level Premier events keep her ranking lower than it could be. In the last year, she has lost to beatable players like Rus, Bacsinszky, and Sprem in the big events, or pushed top players like Clijsters, Jankovic, or Peer to 3 sets with a reasonable chance to win and failed to close it out. She is also 0-3 in tour finals, further evidence that when push comes to shove, Mattek-Sands might not be as tough as she appears. With some extra work (maybe with a sports psychologist?) Bethanie could make a big push towards the top 30, before it's too late.
- Peer might be the opposite of Mattek-Sands, really getting the absolute most out of her talent. Peer is just a few wins away from reaching the top 10 for the first time in her career. It would be a tremendous accomplishment for the Israeli who seemed destined for a career where she would rank between 15 and 30. Peer is also peaking at a time where more accomplished players are struggling, leaving open a few top ten spots to those willing to take advantage.
Honorable Mentions:
- Indian Wells R1, Yen-Hsun Lu def. Lleyton Hewitt 62 63 - Lu is so unpredictable, having just lost to someone ranked 368 in the world, but we remember his big win at Wimbledon last year over Roddick. Lu continues to be a wild-card performer, blowing Hewitt off the court. If he Hewitt can't start to put together some solid wins, he will have to consider how much long he wants to play. It might be a bit early to write Hewitt off given that he beat Federer to win the title in Halle last year, but his good results are becoming rarer each month.
- Indian Wells R1, Nikolay Davydenko def. Fabio Fognini 57 62 64 - Fognini is another player who pushed the top guys but can't cross the finish line. But the bigger story is Davydenko, who has fallen since his extended break from tennis due to a wrist injury. Davydenko's game requires a lot of rhythm and timing, so it's not surprising he's been struggling to string a lot of wins together. His record in Indian Wells is poor, but his result in Miami, where he is a former champion, could be an early forecast for his year.
Friday, March 11, 2011
Drama off of Center Court - 3/10/2011
Date: 3/10/2011
Result: Urszula Radwanska def. Bojana Jovanovski 3-6 6-4 7-6, Indian Wells R1
Why it matters:
- Anyone who has been to a pro tournament, especially somewhere with a massive main stadium, learns quickly that the best value for the ticket price is to wander around the outer courts to find the most exciting matches. If you notice on the order of play that lesser-known Jovanovski and U. Radwanska (as opposed to A. Radwanska) are playing somewhere, head to that court immediately. These two young-guns have played 3 times in the last month, with Jovanovski winning 4-6 6-1 7-6 and 1-6 7-5 6-4 in Doha and Kuala Lumpur, respectively. Their games just seem to match up in a compelling manor, and the matches are always drama filled. In Indian Wells, the back and forth 3rd set was very tense.
- This win is significant for Radwanska, who is returning from a significant back injury (she's still wearing a brace). She was one of the rising players in 2009, potentially looking to match her older sister's accomplishments, but following her derailing injury, she's trying to rebuild. It's too early to say how high Urszula can go, but watch for her to at least come back to the top 100 in the next few months.
- Jovanovski can't be TOO discouraged by this loss. She's still playing well, but if she wants to officially take the Serbian reins from Ivanovic and Jankovic, she'll have to make her move on the clay, where the other Serbs have historically had impressive results and Jovanovski has yet to prove herself.
Honorable Mentions:
- Indian Wells R1, Donald Young def. Potito Starace - 26 63 63 - Young can use this match to start to gain confidence, although the result wasn't unexpected. Starace is a tough enough veteran, but no one "in-the-know" would ever expect much from him on hard courts. Young needs to trick himself into thinking this is a significant win, though, and see if he can put together a run. The fields in Indian Wells and Miami will probably be too tough for any real impact results, but if Young is able to take real positives from this win, look for him to continue to post big challenger results this spring, and maybe qualify and win a few rounds in the American hardcourt summer.
- Indian Wells R1, Juan Martin del Potro def. Radek Stepanek - 64 60 - del Potro has already been declared "back" after his title in Delray Beach, but this match means more. I don't discount wins over Fish and Tipsarevic (though the quality of play against Tipsarevic was quite weak) in Delray, but Indian Wells is a Masters 1000, where there is consistent pressure to beat top players back to back - even more so for an unseeded player. Winning by this scoreline against a tricky opponent is more significant evidence that del Potro is putting his game back together, and might be ready to be extremely impactful as early as the French Open.
Result: Urszula Radwanska def. Bojana Jovanovski 3-6 6-4 7-6, Indian Wells R1
Why it matters:
- Anyone who has been to a pro tournament, especially somewhere with a massive main stadium, learns quickly that the best value for the ticket price is to wander around the outer courts to find the most exciting matches. If you notice on the order of play that lesser-known Jovanovski and U. Radwanska (as opposed to A. Radwanska) are playing somewhere, head to that court immediately. These two young-guns have played 3 times in the last month, with Jovanovski winning 4-6 6-1 7-6 and 1-6 7-5 6-4 in Doha and Kuala Lumpur, respectively. Their games just seem to match up in a compelling manor, and the matches are always drama filled. In Indian Wells, the back and forth 3rd set was very tense.
- This win is significant for Radwanska, who is returning from a significant back injury (she's still wearing a brace). She was one of the rising players in 2009, potentially looking to match her older sister's accomplishments, but following her derailing injury, she's trying to rebuild. It's too early to say how high Urszula can go, but watch for her to at least come back to the top 100 in the next few months.
- Jovanovski can't be TOO discouraged by this loss. She's still playing well, but if she wants to officially take the Serbian reins from Ivanovic and Jankovic, she'll have to make her move on the clay, where the other Serbs have historically had impressive results and Jovanovski has yet to prove herself.
Honorable Mentions:
- Indian Wells R1, Donald Young def. Potito Starace - 26 63 63 - Young can use this match to start to gain confidence, although the result wasn't unexpected. Starace is a tough enough veteran, but no one "in-the-know" would ever expect much from him on hard courts. Young needs to trick himself into thinking this is a significant win, though, and see if he can put together a run. The fields in Indian Wells and Miami will probably be too tough for any real impact results, but if Young is able to take real positives from this win, look for him to continue to post big challenger results this spring, and maybe qualify and win a few rounds in the American hardcourt summer.
- Indian Wells R1, Juan Martin del Potro def. Radek Stepanek - 64 60 - del Potro has already been declared "back" after his title in Delray Beach, but this match means more. I don't discount wins over Fish and Tipsarevic (though the quality of play against Tipsarevic was quite weak) in Delray, but Indian Wells is a Masters 1000, where there is consistent pressure to beat top players back to back - even more so for an unseeded player. Winning by this scoreline against a tricky opponent is more significant evidence that del Potro is putting his game back together, and might be ready to be extremely impactful as early as the French Open.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Is time up for Patty Schnyder? - 3/9/2011
Date: 3/9/2011
Result: Indian Wells R1, Alize Cornet (Q) d. Patty Schnyder 6-1 6-4
Why it matters:
- Can it really be 13 years since Schnyder had her breakout season in 1998, winning 5 Tour titles (none higher than a Tier II)? Schnyder has always had a funky and quirky game, and I think it's provided a good bit of variety to the tour, especially in the last few years. However, I think her style is deceptively based on top-level fitness, which allows her to dictate rallies with her loopy strokes. Not so deceptive has been the Swiss player's wavering motivations on tour. Who can forget her famous orange juice period? But just as often as she seems to not care, she also plays with utter conviction and passion, as if she has a personal grudge against her opponent (sometimes she does). If Schnyder can find that fire, her game is complicated enough, especially on clay, that there's no reason she can't trouble some of the up-and-comers, as well as top players, like when she beat Clijsters soon after Kim's '09 US Open win. Look for her in Charleston and the rest of the clay events this spring. If she's losing consistently to beatable competition, it might be time for Patty to throw in the towel for good. And a 1 and 4 loss to someone of Cornet's current level is not a great indication.
- We shouldn't forget the winner of this match, Alize Cornet, who is mounting a sort of comeback after a pretty severe mental collapse in the last 2 years or so. She reached #11 in the world in Feb. 2009, soon after almost taking out Dinara Safina at the Australian Open in the third round. Since that loss, she's gone 51-59, including a disastrous 15-26 in the rest of 2009, including several more heartbreaking losses in Fed Cup, where Cornet really seems to feel the pressure of playing for her country. Cornet's game is alright. She doesn't have any amazingly flashy weapons, imposing power, or breathtaking quickness. However, her overall game, at least in 2008 and against Safina, seemed to be greater than the sum of its parts. It will be interesting to see if Cornet can put it all back together. I doubt she'll get back to #11, but why not the firmly in the top 50?
Honorable Mentions:
- Indian Wells R1, Gisela Dulko def. Vania King - 26 63 62 - #1 in Doubles Dulko trying to revive her singles ranking which has dropped significantly, while local girl King continues to stumble. It feels like she's older than 22, but she's looking more and more like she'll become a doubles specialist only if she doesn't get her act together soon.
-Indian Wells R1, Melanie Oudin def. Elena Vesnina - 76 62 - Can Oudin only beat Russians on home soil? Melanie's sophomore slump in 2010 after a breakout 2009 was pretty severe. She needs to feed off the home crowd to get her mojo back.
- Indian Wells R1, Sara Errani def. Greta Arn - 66 ret. - Arn's been on fire this year, but given the length of the injury timeout for this knee injury, will her momentum be stopped? She has semifinal points to defend from the now defunct Premier Warsaw in May, we'll see if she's fit to try.
Result: Indian Wells R1, Alize Cornet (Q) d. Patty Schnyder 6-1 6-4
Why it matters:
- Can it really be 13 years since Schnyder had her breakout season in 1998, winning 5 Tour titles (none higher than a Tier II)? Schnyder has always had a funky and quirky game, and I think it's provided a good bit of variety to the tour, especially in the last few years. However, I think her style is deceptively based on top-level fitness, which allows her to dictate rallies with her loopy strokes. Not so deceptive has been the Swiss player's wavering motivations on tour. Who can forget her famous orange juice period? But just as often as she seems to not care, she also plays with utter conviction and passion, as if she has a personal grudge against her opponent (sometimes she does). If Schnyder can find that fire, her game is complicated enough, especially on clay, that there's no reason she can't trouble some of the up-and-comers, as well as top players, like when she beat Clijsters soon after Kim's '09 US Open win. Look for her in Charleston and the rest of the clay events this spring. If she's losing consistently to beatable competition, it might be time for Patty to throw in the towel for good. And a 1 and 4 loss to someone of Cornet's current level is not a great indication.
- We shouldn't forget the winner of this match, Alize Cornet, who is mounting a sort of comeback after a pretty severe mental collapse in the last 2 years or so. She reached #11 in the world in Feb. 2009, soon after almost taking out Dinara Safina at the Australian Open in the third round. Since that loss, she's gone 51-59, including a disastrous 15-26 in the rest of 2009, including several more heartbreaking losses in Fed Cup, where Cornet really seems to feel the pressure of playing for her country. Cornet's game is alright. She doesn't have any amazingly flashy weapons, imposing power, or breathtaking quickness. However, her overall game, at least in 2008 and against Safina, seemed to be greater than the sum of its parts. It will be interesting to see if Cornet can put it all back together. I doubt she'll get back to #11, but why not the firmly in the top 50?
Honorable Mentions:
- Indian Wells R1, Gisela Dulko def. Vania King - 26 63 62 - #1 in Doubles Dulko trying to revive her singles ranking which has dropped significantly, while local girl King continues to stumble. It feels like she's older than 22, but she's looking more and more like she'll become a doubles specialist only if she doesn't get her act together soon.
-Indian Wells R1, Melanie Oudin def. Elena Vesnina - 76 62 - Can Oudin only beat Russians on home soil? Melanie's sophomore slump in 2010 after a breakout 2009 was pretty severe. She needs to feed off the home crowd to get her mojo back.
- Indian Wells R1, Sara Errani def. Greta Arn - 66 ret. - Arn's been on fire this year, but given the length of the injury timeout for this knee injury, will her momentum be stopped? She has semifinal points to defend from the now defunct Premier Warsaw in May, we'll see if she's fit to try.
Sunday, March 6, 2011
Match of the Day
My girlfriend gets freaked out when we watch tennis together on TV because I routinely predict what the commentators are going to say. Maybe I'm clairvoyant, or maybe I've watched enough tennis coverage over the last nearly 2 decades to know that commentators can't help telling us for the 100th time that Kim Clijsters' father was Belgian soccer player of the year in 1988 (I'll never mention this fact again!) or that Mardy Fish lost a ton of weight.
I really wanted to start a blog because, well, I've got a lot to say about tennis. I also don't think a lot of tennis journalism out there does justice to the intricacies of the sport or tells readers anything new, different, interesting, or useful. I can't promise that all my ideas and comments will be so original that you've never heard them before, but I'll try to bring something new to the table with each posting.
The concept is simple: each posting I'll feature the one match played that day that I think is most significant. This could be because of the result/scoreline, the players participating, or the importance of the event. I'll stick mainly with the main tours, grand slams, and Davis/Fed Cup, but if some challenger results merit discussing (such as days where no ATP/WTA matches are taking place), I won't hesitate to bring them up. Ideally I'll have watched the match myself, but sometimes highlights or match reports will have to suffice. This task might be really difficult, but I want to limit myself to one match each day so I make sure to say something in depth about the match I choose, rather than do a cursory review of too many. I will have a few "honorable mentions" section, though, where I'll offer a very brief thought or two about some other important matches on that day.
I also am trying to be objective in my analysis. Of course I have my favorite players, but I hope who they are won't be too apparent to you readers. Feel free to call me out in the comments section if you detect any favoritism.
I also am trying to be objective in my analysis. Of course I have my favorite players, but I hope who they are won't be too apparent to you readers. Feel free to call me out in the comments section if you detect any favoritism.
Once in awhile I might also post something that's not a match review, should the mood strike.
I really hope you enjoy this blog and keep coming back!
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