Date: 4/30/2011
Result: Estoril SF, Fernando Verdasco def. Milos Raonic, 6-4 ret.
Why it matters:
- The grudge match that wasn't. Well, it kind of was. Verdasco should spin this as if he got the revenge he wanted after back-to-back losses to Raonic in February, after which Verdasco said he wanted to face the Canadian on clay to show him "real tennis". Fernando needs to convince himself that this was the win he needed to overcome his previous irritation. And there is some evidence that it was a significant win. Both players had to finish their quarterfinal matches earlier in the day, which likely contributed to Raonic's retirement - no need getting seriously injured before the big event in Madrid - so Verdasco's fitness (more specifically, his ability to play multiple matches without risk of injury) won out. And I think his complaint about Raonic's style being all serve stands up - hitting big serves can be taxing, but it takes a different level of fitness to grind through a high quality clay court match. Even so, there will probably be a seed of doubt in Verdasco's mind about Raonic until he takes him out in a completed match and has the feeling of winning match point.
- As mentioned above, Raonic's withdrawal likely is with an eye on Madrid (where the altitude may help is big game), Rome and of course Paris, so I'm not going to read too much into the retirement. Raonic is smart and well aware of how the year is going for him (10th best year-to-date), and that he'll need big results in the big events to keep pace. We'll see how he performs in Madrid as proof of this. But the fact of the matter was he was being asked to play at minimum 3 sets and at most 5 sets on this day, and guess how many he'll need to play in each individual round at Roland Garros? Exactly. If he wants to be an all-court contender, making sure he's got himself into top condition will be critical.
Honorable Mentions:
- Munich SF, Florian Mayer def. Philipp Petzschner - 63 64 - this was an interesting match in the battle between the Germans to take the lead in this generation of players, as well as making a push to match the results of the German women like Petkovic and Goerges. As with Goerges, a title before the home crowd could really boost the profile of Mayer, who already has been asserting himself. With 10 Germans in the top 100, but none in the top 30 (Mayer is tops at 35), someone will need to step up and inspire the others if they have any hope of matching the success of the Spaniards.
- Madrid R1, Victoria Azarenka def. Vera Dushevina - 60 60 - Azarenka seems to have recovered from her injury in Stuttgart. I mentioned previously that it was hard to believe that Azarenka is a top 5 player, but she's really trying to prove me, and her other doubters, wrong. Azarenka's game doesn't seem tailored to clay courts, but if she can string together a bunch of wins this spring, watch out for her on the American hardcourts where she traditionally excels. For Vera, just forget about this one...
Saturday, April 30, 2011
A modern women's claycourter - 4/29/2011
Date: 4/29/2011
Result: Barcelona SF, Roberta Vinci def. Laura Pous-Tio, 4-6 6-4 7-6
Why it matters:
- Three in a row for Vinci. After winning the title in 2009 and making the finals in 2010, Vinci is back again. But why? This is a place where she clearly excels, but her serve and volley game doesn't seem like the traditional tactic on clay. However, with the near extinction of slice in the women's game, at net is one of the rare places where players try to hit shots that stay particularly low. And while clay is slow and can really make topspin kick up, it also can help keep slices, or volleys, low. Of course Vinci isn't at net every point, but she comes in a lot for the WTA, and as Schiavone showed at Roland Garros last year, closing at net with low volleys, or just variety in general, can make a mark in the modern game especially on the red clay. The clay in different cities can play completely differently, but somehow Vinci's game just works well in Barcelona. Maybe she can take a lot of heart from her run here - Schiavone won the title last year before winning in Paris, so why not two veteran Italians in a row?
- Pous-Tio has come a long way from her 2nd round loss to Vinci last year. After missing about 20 months between September 2007 and May 2009, Pous-Tio is trying to resurrect her career, and converting on a lot of opportunities. This one slipped away, but Pous is looking like she might surpass her former results when she was a young up-and-comer. For Pous-Tio, the most interesting part of her attempt to comeback is that she's been playing tour level events and trying to qualify a lot, at least a lot more than playing tiny challengers to get her confidence up. But she must have something going, because if she can put together semifinal runs, then she'll be reaching newfound heights soon enough.
Honorable Mentions:
- Munich QF, Nikolay Davydenko def. Marin Cilic - 75 63 - Nothing too disrespectful losing to a former champion for Cilic, but with Davydenko's track record this year of losing to people less talented than Cilic, the Croat has got to feel like he let one slip. Cilic, too, is not living up to potential, and there are supposed to be his peak years, where Davydenko is near the end. I've believed too many times that certain wins by Davydenko would key him on to a recovery year, but I'm not willing to believe it again, at least until he takes a title... maybe in 2 days.
- Estoril QF, Juan Martin del Potro def. Robin Soderling - 64 75 - It happened again. After taking Soderling down in Miami as part of his comeback, del Potro does it again on clay. Despite where they grew up, it's arguable that Soderling is the more proficient claycourter of the two, so this is pretty impressive (though indoors would be even more impressive). Soderling has impressed since his 2009 run to the French Open final, but del Potro is proving, repeatedly, that when it comes to big guys with big groundstrokes, he's the true contender to be a dominant threat.
Result: Barcelona SF, Roberta Vinci def. Laura Pous-Tio, 4-6 6-4 7-6
Why it matters:
- Three in a row for Vinci. After winning the title in 2009 and making the finals in 2010, Vinci is back again. But why? This is a place where she clearly excels, but her serve and volley game doesn't seem like the traditional tactic on clay. However, with the near extinction of slice in the women's game, at net is one of the rare places where players try to hit shots that stay particularly low. And while clay is slow and can really make topspin kick up, it also can help keep slices, or volleys, low. Of course Vinci isn't at net every point, but she comes in a lot for the WTA, and as Schiavone showed at Roland Garros last year, closing at net with low volleys, or just variety in general, can make a mark in the modern game especially on the red clay. The clay in different cities can play completely differently, but somehow Vinci's game just works well in Barcelona. Maybe she can take a lot of heart from her run here - Schiavone won the title last year before winning in Paris, so why not two veteran Italians in a row?
- Pous-Tio has come a long way from her 2nd round loss to Vinci last year. After missing about 20 months between September 2007 and May 2009, Pous-Tio is trying to resurrect her career, and converting on a lot of opportunities. This one slipped away, but Pous is looking like she might surpass her former results when she was a young up-and-comer. For Pous-Tio, the most interesting part of her attempt to comeback is that she's been playing tour level events and trying to qualify a lot, at least a lot more than playing tiny challengers to get her confidence up. But she must have something going, because if she can put together semifinal runs, then she'll be reaching newfound heights soon enough.
Honorable Mentions:
- Munich QF, Nikolay Davydenko def. Marin Cilic - 75 63 - Nothing too disrespectful losing to a former champion for Cilic, but with Davydenko's track record this year of losing to people less talented than Cilic, the Croat has got to feel like he let one slip. Cilic, too, is not living up to potential, and there are supposed to be his peak years, where Davydenko is near the end. I've believed too many times that certain wins by Davydenko would key him on to a recovery year, but I'm not willing to believe it again, at least until he takes a title... maybe in 2 days.
- Estoril QF, Juan Martin del Potro def. Robin Soderling - 64 75 - It happened again. After taking Soderling down in Miami as part of his comeback, del Potro does it again on clay. Despite where they grew up, it's arguable that Soderling is the more proficient claycourter of the two, so this is pretty impressive (though indoors would be even more impressive). Soderling has impressed since his 2009 run to the French Open final, but del Potro is proving, repeatedly, that when it comes to big guys with big groundstrokes, he's the true contender to be a dominant threat.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Where to find inspiration - 4/28/2011
Date: 4/28/2011
Result: Belgrade R2, Marcel Granollers def. Viktor Troicki, 6-2 6-3
Why it matters:
- Granollers is the forgotten member of the "Spanish Armada". He's not as proficient as Nadal, Verdasco, or Ferrer - that is clear. But has someone like Feliciano Lopez, who gets a ton of publicity, really done THAT much more than Granollers? Granollers may fall off the map every other week, but on his "on" weeks, he makes deep runs in events (Valencia 2010, Miami 2011 - Ferrer is his nemesis!) and takes out top players. So another good top-20 win for Granollers here - but for ranking purposes, he'll need to do his best to capitalize further.
- Troicki's loss is little troubling for fans of Viktor. It wasn't his first match on clay, in fact he'd performed well in Monaco (Ferrer might be Troicki's nemesis, too), so there was no real reason to come out as flat as he did against Granollers. Of course, his mind should be on Madrid and Rome, given his chance to solidify his ranking in the next few weeks. But playing at home didn't inspire him this time around, as it had in December. Confidence of performing well in front of a boisterous crowd could carry him through the next few weeks, but instead Troicki should get out of town and head to Madrid early, to find the focus he'll need as soon as possible.
Honorable Mentions:
- Estoril QF, Kristina Barrois def. Alisa Kleybanova - 64 62 - Barrois is looking to catch some of the German momentum on the women's tour. To be fair, her run in Stuttgart was good (convincingly beating Safarova and Baroli), though overshadowed. So this win isn't a massive shock, but with no seeds left in the draw in Estoril, there's no reason Barrois can't take a title of her own this week. Kleybanova will never be a major clay court threat, but as with everyone, it's about taking opportunities. As top seed this week and her major competition (rankings-wise at least) out of the tournament, it looks like she squandered a chance to nab a title.
- Belgrade R2, Somdev Devvarman def. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 76 26 76 - A classic claycourt grind, where the noted grinder gets out done by the player just coming into his own. If Devvarman had just outright outgunned Garcia-Lopez, it would be less surprising; you could reason it as just too good of a performance from Devvarman. But if the up-and-coming Indian can win matches on his least favorite surface when he's not playing his best against a player who feels at home on clay, it could be an indication of more to come.
Result: Belgrade R2, Marcel Granollers def. Viktor Troicki, 6-2 6-3
Why it matters:
- Granollers is the forgotten member of the "Spanish Armada". He's not as proficient as Nadal, Verdasco, or Ferrer - that is clear. But has someone like Feliciano Lopez, who gets a ton of publicity, really done THAT much more than Granollers? Granollers may fall off the map every other week, but on his "on" weeks, he makes deep runs in events (Valencia 2010, Miami 2011 - Ferrer is his nemesis!) and takes out top players. So another good top-20 win for Granollers here - but for ranking purposes, he'll need to do his best to capitalize further.
- Troicki's loss is little troubling for fans of Viktor. It wasn't his first match on clay, in fact he'd performed well in Monaco (Ferrer might be Troicki's nemesis, too), so there was no real reason to come out as flat as he did against Granollers. Of course, his mind should be on Madrid and Rome, given his chance to solidify his ranking in the next few weeks. But playing at home didn't inspire him this time around, as it had in December. Confidence of performing well in front of a boisterous crowd could carry him through the next few weeks, but instead Troicki should get out of town and head to Madrid early, to find the focus he'll need as soon as possible.
Honorable Mentions:
- Estoril QF, Kristina Barrois def. Alisa Kleybanova - 64 62 - Barrois is looking to catch some of the German momentum on the women's tour. To be fair, her run in Stuttgart was good (convincingly beating Safarova and Baroli), though overshadowed. So this win isn't a massive shock, but with no seeds left in the draw in Estoril, there's no reason Barrois can't take a title of her own this week. Kleybanova will never be a major clay court threat, but as with everyone, it's about taking opportunities. As top seed this week and her major competition (rankings-wise at least) out of the tournament, it looks like she squandered a chance to nab a title.
- Belgrade R2, Somdev Devvarman def. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 76 26 76 - A classic claycourt grind, where the noted grinder gets out done by the player just coming into his own. If Devvarman had just outright outgunned Garcia-Lopez, it would be less surprising; you could reason it as just too good of a performance from Devvarman. But if the up-and-coming Indian can win matches on his least favorite surface when he's not playing his best against a player who feels at home on clay, it could be an indication of more to come.
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Australian Off-Court Struggles - 4/27/2011
Date: 4/27/2011
Result: Estoril R2, Jarmila Gajdosova def. Casey Dellacqua, 6-2 6-4
Why it matters:
- This is the first week back as Ms. Gajdosova for the Australian. Following a flurry of suggestive tweets, Jarmila Groth confirmed that her marriage to ATP player Sam Groth is coming to an end. And while personal drama might bring down most of her competitors, Gajdosova is rolling in Portugal. Her focus and mental maturity to be able to separate off-court and on-court issues highlight her strength that has helped her put together her best results of her career over the last 52 weeks. While her game seems most suited to faster courts, her game blossoms on clay. While her run in Paris in 2010 was surprising, a repeat performance this year seems expected, even if her marriage is ending.
- Dellacqua is another Aussie with some turmoil in her life, though more of it involved physical ailments. Not long after her memorable run to the 4th Round in Melbourne in 2008, Dellacqua's shoulder injury derailed all of her positive momentum. She's trying to pull it altogether for another run. She unfortunately ran into a better Aussie on the day, but she can take positives out of this. She was competitive start to finish, but maybe the shoulder isn't fully there. I of course realize breaks are more prevalent on clay (and generally on the WTA Tour), but Dellacqua lost serve 6 of 9 tries. Her serve was effective back in her 2008 run, so if she can find that form once again, she's still young enough to try to get back to the top 50.
Honorable Mentions:
- Munich R2, Grigor Dimitrov def. Marcos Baghdatis - 36 76 62 - Baghdatis fails to close out another match. As I've said previously, clay is never going to reward Baghdatis' style of play as well as hard court or even grass, but when he gives himself a chance to win he's got to close it out if he wants to actually become a title threat whenever he plays. For Dimitrov, it's his turn to finally step up. His contemporaries Dolgopolov and Raonic have been staking claims all year, so if he wants to keep pace, Dimitrov better figure out a way to make a big impact on tour. Why not start with Munich?
- Belgrade R2, Novak Djokovic def. Adrian Ungur - 62 63 - He's BAAAACCKKK. The hottest player of the year picked up where he left off with a comfortable win in front of his home crowd. Djokovic looked slightly rusty and uncomfortable under foot, but this was never a contest. Djokovic likely will run away with this title, so if he's smart, he'll use the matches in Belgrade to work on certain tricky aspects of his game in live-match situations to be sure he's in shape to make a run in any or all of Madrid, Rome and Paris. For Ungur, it was already a decent week. And hey, at least he didn't get bageled.
Result: Estoril R2, Jarmila Gajdosova def. Casey Dellacqua, 6-2 6-4
Why it matters:
- This is the first week back as Ms. Gajdosova for the Australian. Following a flurry of suggestive tweets, Jarmila Groth confirmed that her marriage to ATP player Sam Groth is coming to an end. And while personal drama might bring down most of her competitors, Gajdosova is rolling in Portugal. Her focus and mental maturity to be able to separate off-court and on-court issues highlight her strength that has helped her put together her best results of her career over the last 52 weeks. While her game seems most suited to faster courts, her game blossoms on clay. While her run in Paris in 2010 was surprising, a repeat performance this year seems expected, even if her marriage is ending.
- Dellacqua is another Aussie with some turmoil in her life, though more of it involved physical ailments. Not long after her memorable run to the 4th Round in Melbourne in 2008, Dellacqua's shoulder injury derailed all of her positive momentum. She's trying to pull it altogether for another run. She unfortunately ran into a better Aussie on the day, but she can take positives out of this. She was competitive start to finish, but maybe the shoulder isn't fully there. I of course realize breaks are more prevalent on clay (and generally on the WTA Tour), but Dellacqua lost serve 6 of 9 tries. Her serve was effective back in her 2008 run, so if she can find that form once again, she's still young enough to try to get back to the top 50.
Honorable Mentions:
- Munich R2, Grigor Dimitrov def. Marcos Baghdatis - 36 76 62 - Baghdatis fails to close out another match. As I've said previously, clay is never going to reward Baghdatis' style of play as well as hard court or even grass, but when he gives himself a chance to win he's got to close it out if he wants to actually become a title threat whenever he plays. For Dimitrov, it's his turn to finally step up. His contemporaries Dolgopolov and Raonic have been staking claims all year, so if he wants to keep pace, Dimitrov better figure out a way to make a big impact on tour. Why not start with Munich?
- Belgrade R2, Novak Djokovic def. Adrian Ungur - 62 63 - He's BAAAACCKKK. The hottest player of the year picked up where he left off with a comfortable win in front of his home crowd. Djokovic looked slightly rusty and uncomfortable under foot, but this was never a contest. Djokovic likely will run away with this title, so if he's smart, he'll use the matches in Belgrade to work on certain tricky aspects of his game in live-match situations to be sure he's in shape to make a run in any or all of Madrid, Rome and Paris. For Ungur, it was already a decent week. And hey, at least he didn't get bageled.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Sweet win for a former phenom - 4/26/2011
Date: 4/26/2011
Result: Barcelona R1, Mirjana Lucic def. Ekaterina Makarova, 7-6 6-3
Why it matters:
- With each win by Mirjana Lucic, hope springs again that Lucic can reemerge, even if only at 10% of her former potential, and make a small impression on the tour before hanging it up for good. Her run to the Wimbledon semifinals was so memorable (even if slightly overshadowed by another surprise semifinalist). Lucic's upside seemed limitless. She has a smooth game that can translate to any surface, so she's enjoyable to watch for the fans. But perpetual injuries really stopped her, along with waning confidence and heightened expectation. The WTA has seen its fair share of teen phenoms gone bust, but few have fought as hard as Lucic has throughout the years to try and regain her top form. This win may be at a small tour event, but for Lucic, I'm sure it is sweet.
- Makarova is so up and down. She can put together amazing strings of wins (like in Eastbourne, with 5 top 20 wins, beating Pennetta, Petrova, Kuznetsova, Stosur, and Azarenka), and then lose to, well, people like Lucic in fairly disappointing fashion. Of course, clay doesn't suit Makarova's big game. It dampens her serve and exposes her movement problems; the counterpoint though is she should be able to hit through the court with her power. Makarova is a dangerous floater that most of the WTA would prefer to avoid in the draw, I'm sure, but her fear factor will rise once the grass season comes around. For now, players should try to take advantage, especially when the courts are extra slow.
Honorable Mentions:
-Belgrade R1, Fernando Gonzalez def. Martin Klizan - 62 64 - Welcome back Gonzo! After a serious knee injury kept him out for an extended period, Gonzalez is back in a fairly low pressure situation. He is especially lucky to have such a favorable draw to ease him back into playing condition (Sorry Klizan!). I think Gonzalez has the kind of game that can come back quickly; he hits so big that if he can find confidence and a bit of a rhythm, he doesn't have to work the point very much. But if he doesn't find any rhythm soon, his matches could be error-fests. Give Gonzalez until the French to get it all the way back.
- Munich R1, Dustin Brown def. Stanislas Wawrinka - 67 64 75 - Brown worked his way to one of his biggest wins of his career (his win over Querrey in Newport last year may be considered bigger) in front of his new home crowd. Having been born in Germany, he feels at home in Munich and hopefully has enough crowd support to make that a significant advantage. But his funky game is probably what got him through this match. Wawrinka is built on rhythm, so changes of pace and lack of pattern can break him down. Wawrinka should shake this one off. Of course getting wins is important, but this loss may let him focus on the real targets in Madrid and Rome coming up. He's proven he's tough on clay, he should have real ambitions to make a splash at one or both of the Masters events.
Result: Barcelona R1, Mirjana Lucic def. Ekaterina Makarova, 7-6 6-3
Why it matters:
- With each win by Mirjana Lucic, hope springs again that Lucic can reemerge, even if only at 10% of her former potential, and make a small impression on the tour before hanging it up for good. Her run to the Wimbledon semifinals was so memorable (even if slightly overshadowed by another surprise semifinalist). Lucic's upside seemed limitless. She has a smooth game that can translate to any surface, so she's enjoyable to watch for the fans. But perpetual injuries really stopped her, along with waning confidence and heightened expectation. The WTA has seen its fair share of teen phenoms gone bust, but few have fought as hard as Lucic has throughout the years to try and regain her top form. This win may be at a small tour event, but for Lucic, I'm sure it is sweet.
- Makarova is so up and down. She can put together amazing strings of wins (like in Eastbourne, with 5 top 20 wins, beating Pennetta, Petrova, Kuznetsova, Stosur, and Azarenka), and then lose to, well, people like Lucic in fairly disappointing fashion. Of course, clay doesn't suit Makarova's big game. It dampens her serve and exposes her movement problems; the counterpoint though is she should be able to hit through the court with her power. Makarova is a dangerous floater that most of the WTA would prefer to avoid in the draw, I'm sure, but her fear factor will rise once the grass season comes around. For now, players should try to take advantage, especially when the courts are extra slow.
Honorable Mentions:
-Belgrade R1, Fernando Gonzalez def. Martin Klizan - 62 64 - Welcome back Gonzo! After a serious knee injury kept him out for an extended period, Gonzalez is back in a fairly low pressure situation. He is especially lucky to have such a favorable draw to ease him back into playing condition (Sorry Klizan!). I think Gonzalez has the kind of game that can come back quickly; he hits so big that if he can find confidence and a bit of a rhythm, he doesn't have to work the point very much. But if he doesn't find any rhythm soon, his matches could be error-fests. Give Gonzalez until the French to get it all the way back.
- Munich R1, Dustin Brown def. Stanislas Wawrinka - 67 64 75 - Brown worked his way to one of his biggest wins of his career (his win over Querrey in Newport last year may be considered bigger) in front of his new home crowd. Having been born in Germany, he feels at home in Munich and hopefully has enough crowd support to make that a significant advantage. But his funky game is probably what got him through this match. Wawrinka is built on rhythm, so changes of pace and lack of pattern can break him down. Wawrinka should shake this one off. Of course getting wins is important, but this loss may let him focus on the real targets in Madrid and Rome coming up. He's proven he's tough on clay, he should have real ambitions to make a splash at one or both of the Masters events.
Monday, April 25, 2011
Losing the adrenaline rush a little too soon
Date: 4/25/2011
Result: Belgrade R1, Janko Tipsarevic def. Kei Nishikori, 2-6 6-2 7-6
Why it matters:
- Nishikori should've had this one. Tipsarevic was nowhere near his best, Kei is on his best hot streak ever, and he was playing really well in this one (at times). He was serving first in the third and had put the pressure on Tipsarevic. And then he just let his foot off the gas. Nishikori, especially at 6-5 in the 3rd, saw the finish line. He'd done enough to be in a position to win, and probably thought, ok, I could break here, but no pressure, I've always got the tiebreak if I need it. For some players, that lets them swing away. For Nishikori, he started to shrink back and play too casually. And Tipsarevic stepped up and ran away with this one. Losing 0-7 in the tiebreak was really pitiful, if I'm being honest. Nishikori needs to maintain his form throughout and not give in to the natural impulse to relax. He's built his game on grinding, and he needs to prove he can grind start to finish.
- Let's hope this is a watershed moment for Tipsarevic. Other than a very important pair of wins over the Czech Republic in Davis Cup, his record at home in Serbia has been disappointing. In 2009 and 2010 he lost to players outside the top 100 in the Belgrade challenger in February, and had disappointing losses in the last two Davis Cup ties. Tipsarevic is extremely thoughtful and I think that is dangerous for him at times. He really wants to perform for his home crowd and the pressure seems to get to him repeatedly. He needs to draw on his wins over the Czechs, as his home tournament could really use a good result by one of Serbia's heroes.
Honorable Mentions:
- Barcelona R1, Magdalena Rybarikova def. Marion Bartoli - 64 61 - Bartoli just cannot figure out how to win consistently on clay. Today, it may have been more than the surface alone, as her serve game was disastrous. But while Rybarikova is dangerous enough, Bartoli was the elite player on court. She could use a good boost of publicity in France that may come with a run at Roland Garros, but with her traditional results on clay, she may always be the black sheep of French tennis.
- Estoril R1, Romina Oprandi def. Zheng Jie - 64 62 - Zheng has performed well enough on clay (especially at this particular event) in the past, and her smart style that utilizes her footspeed and angles should work. But since her return earlier this year from wrist surgery, she is 3-7, with her best win over #75 Kristina Barrois in 3 sets. She's been a shell of herself. It isn't easy to comeback from wrist injuries as we've seen, but she needs to get her act together in time for Wimbledon, where on the grass she's had some great results and hopefully can renew her confidence. Oprandi is a very talented Italian who also has seen her career suffer due to injuries. No wonder she had no sympathy for the struggling Zheng.
Result: Belgrade R1, Janko Tipsarevic def. Kei Nishikori, 2-6 6-2 7-6
Why it matters:
- Nishikori should've had this one. Tipsarevic was nowhere near his best, Kei is on his best hot streak ever, and he was playing really well in this one (at times). He was serving first in the third and had put the pressure on Tipsarevic. And then he just let his foot off the gas. Nishikori, especially at 6-5 in the 3rd, saw the finish line. He'd done enough to be in a position to win, and probably thought, ok, I could break here, but no pressure, I've always got the tiebreak if I need it. For some players, that lets them swing away. For Nishikori, he started to shrink back and play too casually. And Tipsarevic stepped up and ran away with this one. Losing 0-7 in the tiebreak was really pitiful, if I'm being honest. Nishikori needs to maintain his form throughout and not give in to the natural impulse to relax. He's built his game on grinding, and he needs to prove he can grind start to finish.
- Let's hope this is a watershed moment for Tipsarevic. Other than a very important pair of wins over the Czech Republic in Davis Cup, his record at home in Serbia has been disappointing. In 2009 and 2010 he lost to players outside the top 100 in the Belgrade challenger in February, and had disappointing losses in the last two Davis Cup ties. Tipsarevic is extremely thoughtful and I think that is dangerous for him at times. He really wants to perform for his home crowd and the pressure seems to get to him repeatedly. He needs to draw on his wins over the Czechs, as his home tournament could really use a good result by one of Serbia's heroes.
Honorable Mentions:
- Barcelona R1, Magdalena Rybarikova def. Marion Bartoli - 64 61 - Bartoli just cannot figure out how to win consistently on clay. Today, it may have been more than the surface alone, as her serve game was disastrous. But while Rybarikova is dangerous enough, Bartoli was the elite player on court. She could use a good boost of publicity in France that may come with a run at Roland Garros, but with her traditional results on clay, she may always be the black sheep of French tennis.
- Estoril R1, Romina Oprandi def. Zheng Jie - 64 62 - Zheng has performed well enough on clay (especially at this particular event) in the past, and her smart style that utilizes her footspeed and angles should work. But since her return earlier this year from wrist surgery, she is 3-7, with her best win over #75 Kristina Barrois in 3 sets. She's been a shell of herself. It isn't easy to comeback from wrist injuries as we've seen, but she needs to get her act together in time for Wimbledon, where on the grass she's had some great results and hopefully can renew her confidence. Oprandi is a very talented Italian who also has seen her career suffer due to injuries. No wonder she had no sympathy for the struggling Zheng.
Sunday, April 24, 2011
How to beat Woz - 4/24/2011
Date: 4/24/2011
Result: Stuttgart F, Julia Goerges def. Caroline Wozniacki, 7-6 6-3
Why it matters:
- Goerges put together the blueprint of how to take out Wozniacki. She served effectively, opened up the court smartly with a mix of down the line and crosscourt shots, and closed at the net to take away time from the World #1. Sure, those skills will work against almost anyone (and they did - she won the title, after all). But think about each in relation to Wozniacki in particular. First, the return. Wozniacki doesn't crack return winners, but she does neutralize big serves by putting them back deep in the court. Goerges served well to the corners, and especially kicked her second serve so effectively out wide that the court was wide open for her to close points quickly off Wozniacki's return. Goerges won 65% of her 2nd serve points, an impressive feat, and never lost serve. Goerges took her chances down the line, and tried to work on hitting smart angles and mixing up the placement of shots. This works against Wozniacki because she doesn't have the power or mindset to rip winners from awkward positions. If players are able to wrest control of the point and put Wozniacki into awkward shots, Wozniacki usually counters with smart defensive lobs. Wozniacki tried that, but Goerges cut shots off either by stepping in and taking them early or by closing at net. Goerges played smart, and executed a well-developed game plan to take the title.
- All in all, Goerges just played really well and deserved to win. But the worrying fact for Wozniacki is that the chances that someone can do this to her in any 1 of 7 matches at Roland Garros is high - and if someone pulls it off than Woz will miss another chance to collect her maiden Grand Slam crown. She's won 15 titles, but none on red clay (she has three on green clay). The two clays might not be incredibly different, but they are different enough that Wozniacki's style may not be as suited for red clay. I'm not willing to say she's not among the big favorites in Paris, but her failure to take a title on red clay up to this point is somewhat worrying. She's playing in Madrid, Rome and Brussels before Paris, so she'll have plenty of chances to put a trophy in her case before the next major rolls around.
- Did anyone else notice how angry Wozniacki looked about losing this? Think she just assumed she'd roll to victory? Or do you think she's realizing that her game plan can be cracked if someone is very on? She needs to stay positive and not turn into a diva - at least not until she can back it up - or the pressure she puts on herself could start to mount.
Honorable Mentions:
- Fes F, Alberta Brianti def. Simona Halep - 64 63 - Brianti took advantage of what may be her one big chance to win a title. She played solid, did nothing special, and watched while Halep collapsed. For Halep, it's two years in a row where she couldn't convert in Fes in a winnable matchup. She was so emotional from start to finish (and the annoying rain delay didn't help). She played such impressive tennis to reach the final, she needs to remember how to play that way on Sundays.
- Barcelona F, Rafael Nadal def. David Ferrer - 62 64 - Deja vu? You'd hope Ferrer learned a lot from the Monte-Carlo final, but instead it looked like Nadal picked up patterns from a week earlier and again, did enough to win without playing spectacularly, but did it more efficiently this time. We'll see how the clay court landscape changes when red-hot Djokovic returns to the tour, but there's no reason to believe this is the last Ferrer-Nadal matchup this spring.
Result: Stuttgart F, Julia Goerges def. Caroline Wozniacki, 7-6 6-3
Why it matters:
- Goerges put together the blueprint of how to take out Wozniacki. She served effectively, opened up the court smartly with a mix of down the line and crosscourt shots, and closed at the net to take away time from the World #1. Sure, those skills will work against almost anyone (and they did - she won the title, after all). But think about each in relation to Wozniacki in particular. First, the return. Wozniacki doesn't crack return winners, but she does neutralize big serves by putting them back deep in the court. Goerges served well to the corners, and especially kicked her second serve so effectively out wide that the court was wide open for her to close points quickly off Wozniacki's return. Goerges won 65% of her 2nd serve points, an impressive feat, and never lost serve. Goerges took her chances down the line, and tried to work on hitting smart angles and mixing up the placement of shots. This works against Wozniacki because she doesn't have the power or mindset to rip winners from awkward positions. If players are able to wrest control of the point and put Wozniacki into awkward shots, Wozniacki usually counters with smart defensive lobs. Wozniacki tried that, but Goerges cut shots off either by stepping in and taking them early or by closing at net. Goerges played smart, and executed a well-developed game plan to take the title.
- All in all, Goerges just played really well and deserved to win. But the worrying fact for Wozniacki is that the chances that someone can do this to her in any 1 of 7 matches at Roland Garros is high - and if someone pulls it off than Woz will miss another chance to collect her maiden Grand Slam crown. She's won 15 titles, but none on red clay (she has three on green clay). The two clays might not be incredibly different, but they are different enough that Wozniacki's style may not be as suited for red clay. I'm not willing to say she's not among the big favorites in Paris, but her failure to take a title on red clay up to this point is somewhat worrying. She's playing in Madrid, Rome and Brussels before Paris, so she'll have plenty of chances to put a trophy in her case before the next major rolls around.
- Did anyone else notice how angry Wozniacki looked about losing this? Think she just assumed she'd roll to victory? Or do you think she's realizing that her game plan can be cracked if someone is very on? She needs to stay positive and not turn into a diva - at least not until she can back it up - or the pressure she puts on herself could start to mount.
Honorable Mentions:
- Fes F, Alberta Brianti def. Simona Halep - 64 63 - Brianti took advantage of what may be her one big chance to win a title. She played solid, did nothing special, and watched while Halep collapsed. For Halep, it's two years in a row where she couldn't convert in Fes in a winnable matchup. She was so emotional from start to finish (and the annoying rain delay didn't help). She played such impressive tennis to reach the final, she needs to remember how to play that way on Sundays.
- Barcelona F, Rafael Nadal def. David Ferrer - 62 64 - Deja vu? You'd hope Ferrer learned a lot from the Monte-Carlo final, but instead it looked like Nadal picked up patterns from a week earlier and again, did enough to win without playing spectacularly, but did it more efficiently this time. We'll see how the clay court landscape changes when red-hot Djokovic returns to the tour, but there's no reason to believe this is the last Ferrer-Nadal matchup this spring.
Saturday, April 23, 2011
Pleasing the home crowd - 4/23/2011
Date: 4/23/2011
Result: Stuttgart SF, Julia Goerges def. Sam Stosur, 6-4 3-6 7-5
Why it matters:
- I mentioned in a previous post that Germany is starving for a champion, and maybe it's Goerges that is trying to be the one. Goerges played a very complete match: she served, used her backhand, kept focused, and stayed tactically sharp from start to finish. The last two are most impressive, as you could see how much it meant to her to win, which usually creates conditions that cause most players to crack under pressure. Her style of play seems suitable for success on hard courts, too, if especially if she serves as well as she did against Stosur (7 aces, won 72% of first serve points).
- For Stosur, no shame in the loss. She got outplayed on the big points, but she really didn't just give away the match - Goerges earned it. However, Stosur did get predictable. Goerges solved Stosur's devastating second serve return where Stosur runs around her backhand to hit inside-out forehands. Goerges spotted Stosur moving early, so she slid the serves into Stosur's forehand and forced Sam into hitting different shots. On return, Goerges also read the kick serve well enough to get into a great returning rhythm. Stosur's shots are incredibly effective on clay, even when predictable. But if she's going to be able to succeed again at the French Open, she needs to be able to mix it up enough that the smartest players won't be able to out-think her when it matters most.
Honorable Mentions:
- Fes SF, Alberta Brianti def. Dinara Safina - w/o - Another sorry end for Safina. She tweeted "hello my tweetis! hadvto pull out today, I thought would feel better after yesterday,but unfortunately not....had a terrible food poison". Some real bad luck once again for the queen of it. For Brianti, her first tour final, and she'll be well rested. Is it time for another breakthrough for an older Italian player?
- Belgrade Qualifying R1, Ervin Eleskovic def. Yen-Hsun Lu - 60 64 - Who? Not to be too mean, but Eleskovic has done NOTHING in his career to make this expected. He's barely won matches at the Challenger level, and just two on tour ever (both in his homeland of Sweden). He'd never beaten anyone in the top 100, let alone someone in the top 50 like Lu, a noted giant killer on multiple occassions. But then you look closely at Lu's resume. First, he's having a rough year. But more interestingly, he is 1-7 on clay... IN HIS ENTIRE TEN YEAR PRO CAREER (the one win in Davis Cup vs. Pakistani Aqeel Khan in 2001). This is INSANE. There's something to be said for knowing your strengths, but with such a large segment of the tour schedule played on clay, it's unbelievable that Lu could avoid it so often, and also be so terrible on it. So maybe this isn't so shocking. Maybe Lu's plan was to enter Belgrade late, play qualies even though he would've easily been able to get directly in the main draw, and learn how to play on clay against the lower ranked guys he should be able to beat. Major backfire.
Result: Stuttgart SF, Julia Goerges def. Sam Stosur, 6-4 3-6 7-5
Why it matters:
- I mentioned in a previous post that Germany is starving for a champion, and maybe it's Goerges that is trying to be the one. Goerges played a very complete match: she served, used her backhand, kept focused, and stayed tactically sharp from start to finish. The last two are most impressive, as you could see how much it meant to her to win, which usually creates conditions that cause most players to crack under pressure. Her style of play seems suitable for success on hard courts, too, if especially if she serves as well as she did against Stosur (7 aces, won 72% of first serve points).
- For Stosur, no shame in the loss. She got outplayed on the big points, but she really didn't just give away the match - Goerges earned it. However, Stosur did get predictable. Goerges solved Stosur's devastating second serve return where Stosur runs around her backhand to hit inside-out forehands. Goerges spotted Stosur moving early, so she slid the serves into Stosur's forehand and forced Sam into hitting different shots. On return, Goerges also read the kick serve well enough to get into a great returning rhythm. Stosur's shots are incredibly effective on clay, even when predictable. But if she's going to be able to succeed again at the French Open, she needs to be able to mix it up enough that the smartest players won't be able to out-think her when it matters most.
Honorable Mentions:
- Fes SF, Alberta Brianti def. Dinara Safina - w/o - Another sorry end for Safina. She tweeted "hello my tweetis! hadvto pull out today, I thought would feel better after yesterday,but unfortunately not....had a terrible food poison". Some real bad luck once again for the queen of it. For Brianti, her first tour final, and she'll be well rested. Is it time for another breakthrough for an older Italian player?
- Belgrade Qualifying R1, Ervin Eleskovic def. Yen-Hsun Lu - 60 64 - Who? Not to be too mean, but Eleskovic has done NOTHING in his career to make this expected. He's barely won matches at the Challenger level, and just two on tour ever (both in his homeland of Sweden). He'd never beaten anyone in the top 100, let alone someone in the top 50 like Lu, a noted giant killer on multiple occassions. But then you look closely at Lu's resume. First, he's having a rough year. But more interestingly, he is 1-7 on clay... IN HIS ENTIRE TEN YEAR PRO CAREER (the one win in Davis Cup vs. Pakistani Aqeel Khan in 2001). This is INSANE. There's something to be said for knowing your strengths, but with such a large segment of the tour schedule played on clay, it's unbelievable that Lu could avoid it so often, and also be so terrible on it. So maybe this isn't so shocking. Maybe Lu's plan was to enter Belgrade late, play qualies even though he would've easily been able to get directly in the main draw, and learn how to play on clay against the lower ranked guys he should be able to beat. Major backfire.
Keeping Focused - 4/22/2011
Date: 4/22/2011
Result: Fes QF, Dinara Safina def. Anastasia Pivovarova, 6-4 2-6 6-4
Why it matters:
- A dramatic win for Safina in trying conditions. Not only did she have some moments where it looked like that chronic back problem would derail her good run in Morocco, but she wasn't as pinpoint accurate as she'd been in earlier matches and the rains came on and off - at 4-4 in the third following a lengthy delay, they came back to the court to play one point, and then get pulled off for another long rain delay. This pivotal moment was on Safina's serve and it was exactly the type of situation that could see an unmotivated Safina collapse. But she held her nerve and now is in her first semifinal since she reached the final of Cincinnati in 2009 when she was still #1. Safina's not playing with enough confidence to win this tournament easily; but if she does win this event, she might get the boost she needs to start winning regularly again.
- Pivovarova proved why I think she might still develop into a dangerous tour player. She played well, hung in rallies with the more accomplished Safina, and dictated how rallies played out. Unfortunately, her game is too "unremarkable" right now to see her becoming a great player. She does everything quite well but nothing spectacularly. If she can develop some devastating weapon, who knows how high she might go. But for now, she may have to settle for making life difficult.
Honorable Mention:
- Barcelona QF, Rafael Nadal def. Gael Monfils - 62 62 - Rafa is finding his feet. After some performances in Monte-Carlo that failed to impress most fans who know what Nadal is capable of, he really put the beatdown on a capable and talented claycourter who potentially has the firepower (should he decide to unleash it) and defensive skills to trouble Nadal. On the other hand, this is a tough matchup for someone like Monfils though without some extra inspiration. He is prone to lose focus anyway, but going into a match that he's almost always going to lose, he may not have had the drive necessary to even begin to trouble Nadal on his most prolific surface. Monfils will need to believe if he wants to beat some of the big boys in a few weeks in Paris - and the French fans are desperate for him to do it.
Result: Fes QF, Dinara Safina def. Anastasia Pivovarova, 6-4 2-6 6-4
Why it matters:
- A dramatic win for Safina in trying conditions. Not only did she have some moments where it looked like that chronic back problem would derail her good run in Morocco, but she wasn't as pinpoint accurate as she'd been in earlier matches and the rains came on and off - at 4-4 in the third following a lengthy delay, they came back to the court to play one point, and then get pulled off for another long rain delay. This pivotal moment was on Safina's serve and it was exactly the type of situation that could see an unmotivated Safina collapse. But she held her nerve and now is in her first semifinal since she reached the final of Cincinnati in 2009 when she was still #1. Safina's not playing with enough confidence to win this tournament easily; but if she does win this event, she might get the boost she needs to start winning regularly again.
- Pivovarova proved why I think she might still develop into a dangerous tour player. She played well, hung in rallies with the more accomplished Safina, and dictated how rallies played out. Unfortunately, her game is too "unremarkable" right now to see her becoming a great player. She does everything quite well but nothing spectacularly. If she can develop some devastating weapon, who knows how high she might go. But for now, she may have to settle for making life difficult.
Honorable Mention:
- Barcelona QF, Rafael Nadal def. Gael Monfils - 62 62 - Rafa is finding his feet. After some performances in Monte-Carlo that failed to impress most fans who know what Nadal is capable of, he really put the beatdown on a capable and talented claycourter who potentially has the firepower (should he decide to unleash it) and defensive skills to trouble Nadal. On the other hand, this is a tough matchup for someone like Monfils though without some extra inspiration. He is prone to lose focus anyway, but going into a match that he's almost always going to lose, he may not have had the drive necessary to even begin to trouble Nadal on his most prolific surface. Monfils will need to believe if he wants to beat some of the big boys in a few weeks in Paris - and the French fans are desperate for him to do it.
Friday, April 22, 2011
Breaking strings, but not a string of losses - 4/21/2011
Date: 4/21/2011
Result: Stuttgart QF, Sam Stosur def. Vera Zvonareva, 2-6 6-3 7-6
Why it matters:
- Sam needed this one, but it didn't come easily. Stosur has owned Zvonareva over the last few years, so given her current slump Stosur, needed this one to go her way or she'd really have to acknowledge her struggles. In the first set, it looked like more of the 2011 Stosur. She was listless, not holding serve, and just letting Zvonareva out work her. But Stosur recovered valiantly, and was able to win without her best stuff. Grinding out a tough win over a top player can only do her good. But a title in Stuttgart would really spark her early in the clay season.
- Zvonareva's loss isn't so notable. She lost to a top player on that player's favorite surface, and on a surface where Vera's only been so-so. But it's the mystery of her broken strings that will stick with viewers. The willingness of players to change racquets more often on their own and the synthetic strings that players use make broken strings a true rarity, compared to the heyday of players like Sampras. So to see so many broken strings by Zvonareva makes me wonder what the source was. Hopefully not the stringer - or you'd wonder why he/she was ever hired. It's got to be some random, unfortunate combination of Stosur's heavy shots with heavy, clay-coated balls, the indoor conditions (humidity can cause problems with strings), and Zvonareva's racquet and string choice. The thing is that even casual players know that it can be very unsettling to have your equipment let you down (though usually the equipment is getting blamed for nothing by most players). Zvonareva really kept her focus better than most through this ordeal, and for someone with her history of breakdowns, fighting to the end is a good sign.
Honorable Mentions:
- Fes R2, Anastasia Pivovarova def. Yaroslava Shvedova - 62 76 - Shvedova was on her way up (peaking at #29 after her Roland Garros QF run) before injury struck, and she's still not found it back. Pivovarova is young and promising, but there's no reason Shvedova should've lost this. She needs to figure out what was working for her before. But her playing schedule isn't working now to help her with her confidence problem.
-Barcelona R3, Nicolas Almagro def. Nikolay Davydenko - 76 63 - Davydenko still can't win any of the tough matches, and that's going to probably keep his ranking so depressed that he'll be a "dangerous floater" at the French. Someone better beware, because Davydenko may randomly find his form again in Paris and cause something surprising. Almagro, on the other hand, has been winning most of these tricky ones all year, so it's no wonder he'll make his top 10 debut in next week's rankings.
Result: Stuttgart QF, Sam Stosur def. Vera Zvonareva, 2-6 6-3 7-6
Why it matters:
- Sam needed this one, but it didn't come easily. Stosur has owned Zvonareva over the last few years, so given her current slump Stosur, needed this one to go her way or she'd really have to acknowledge her struggles. In the first set, it looked like more of the 2011 Stosur. She was listless, not holding serve, and just letting Zvonareva out work her. But Stosur recovered valiantly, and was able to win without her best stuff. Grinding out a tough win over a top player can only do her good. But a title in Stuttgart would really spark her early in the clay season.
- Zvonareva's loss isn't so notable. She lost to a top player on that player's favorite surface, and on a surface where Vera's only been so-so. But it's the mystery of her broken strings that will stick with viewers. The willingness of players to change racquets more often on their own and the synthetic strings that players use make broken strings a true rarity, compared to the heyday of players like Sampras. So to see so many broken strings by Zvonareva makes me wonder what the source was. Hopefully not the stringer - or you'd wonder why he/she was ever hired. It's got to be some random, unfortunate combination of Stosur's heavy shots with heavy, clay-coated balls, the indoor conditions (humidity can cause problems with strings), and Zvonareva's racquet and string choice. The thing is that even casual players know that it can be very unsettling to have your equipment let you down (though usually the equipment is getting blamed for nothing by most players). Zvonareva really kept her focus better than most through this ordeal, and for someone with her history of breakdowns, fighting to the end is a good sign.
Honorable Mentions:
- Fes R2, Anastasia Pivovarova def. Yaroslava Shvedova - 62 76 - Shvedova was on her way up (peaking at #29 after her Roland Garros QF run) before injury struck, and she's still not found it back. Pivovarova is young and promising, but there's no reason Shvedova should've lost this. She needs to figure out what was working for her before. But her playing schedule isn't working now to help her with her confidence problem.
-Barcelona R3, Nicolas Almagro def. Nikolay Davydenko - 76 63 - Davydenko still can't win any of the tough matches, and that's going to probably keep his ranking so depressed that he'll be a "dangerous floater" at the French. Someone better beware, because Davydenko may randomly find his form again in Paris and cause something surprising. Almagro, on the other hand, has been winning most of these tricky ones all year, so it's no wonder he'll make his top 10 debut in next week's rankings.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Finding his feet - 4/20/2011
Date: 4/20/2011
Result: Barcelona R2, Ivan Dodig def. Robin Soderling, 6-2 6-4
Why it matters:
- I'm willing to acknowledge that switching surfaces can be difficult. The intricacies of playing on hardcourt versus clay are more pronounced than they might seem to the naked eye. So for Soderling to lose his first clay court match of the year, despite his tremendous successes over the last two years, isn't utterly shocking. But when it's his serve, a stroke that, at least regarding the mechanics, shouldn't change much between surfaces, that's the main culprit in leading to his loss, then that becomes a lot more worrisome. Broken 5 times out of 9 services games is a BAD ratio. Soderling's serve needs to click if he wants to be successful, since he thrives on those free points (including points that are completely set up off the serve). Watch out to see how quickly this gets resolved. Soderling will need to get his focus back in time for Paris if he wants to make a third straight final.
- Dodig has been putting his game together this year. Only guy to take a set off Djokovic at the Australian Open, wins first career title at home in Zagreb, so why not a top 5 win? Dodig's dangerous because he doesn't seem to get too nervous, and has the steady elements that should keep him in almost every match, especially on clay. I'm not advocating betting your house on him to win any given match, but he's should always be on the radar, especially to pick off struggling big-hitters who could donate lots of errors.
Honorable Mentions:
- Fes R2, Nadia Lalami def. Aravane Rezai - 26 76 64 - Oops. My bad. I read too much into a comeback win by Rezai yesterday. She is having a bad year, and this isn't going to help. She needs something big. Still, take nothing away from Lalami. This is her biggest win ever, and even sweeter to come in front of her home crowd.
- Stuttgart R2, Andrea Petkovic def. Jelena Jankovic - 36 61 63 - Petkovic is proving her run to the Miami semifinals was no fluke, winning again over Jankovic. Petkovic has shown this week that she can fight back from slow starts (and maybe release some of the pressure of the home crowd over the course of a match). By focusing harder and shoring up her game at the right moments, she's truly evolving into a top player. Germany is so hungry for a champion after they were spoiled with Steffi Graf. Perhaps Petkovic can rise to the occasion.
Result: Barcelona R2, Ivan Dodig def. Robin Soderling, 6-2 6-4
Why it matters:
- I'm willing to acknowledge that switching surfaces can be difficult. The intricacies of playing on hardcourt versus clay are more pronounced than they might seem to the naked eye. So for Soderling to lose his first clay court match of the year, despite his tremendous successes over the last two years, isn't utterly shocking. But when it's his serve, a stroke that, at least regarding the mechanics, shouldn't change much between surfaces, that's the main culprit in leading to his loss, then that becomes a lot more worrisome. Broken 5 times out of 9 services games is a BAD ratio. Soderling's serve needs to click if he wants to be successful, since he thrives on those free points (including points that are completely set up off the serve). Watch out to see how quickly this gets resolved. Soderling will need to get his focus back in time for Paris if he wants to make a third straight final.
- Dodig has been putting his game together this year. Only guy to take a set off Djokovic at the Australian Open, wins first career title at home in Zagreb, so why not a top 5 win? Dodig's dangerous because he doesn't seem to get too nervous, and has the steady elements that should keep him in almost every match, especially on clay. I'm not advocating betting your house on him to win any given match, but he's should always be on the radar, especially to pick off struggling big-hitters who could donate lots of errors.
Honorable Mentions:
- Fes R2, Nadia Lalami def. Aravane Rezai - 26 76 64 - Oops. My bad. I read too much into a comeback win by Rezai yesterday. She is having a bad year, and this isn't going to help. She needs something big. Still, take nothing away from Lalami. This is her biggest win ever, and even sweeter to come in front of her home crowd.
- Stuttgart R2, Andrea Petkovic def. Jelena Jankovic - 36 61 63 - Petkovic is proving her run to the Miami semifinals was no fluke, winning again over Jankovic. Petkovic has shown this week that she can fight back from slow starts (and maybe release some of the pressure of the home crowd over the course of a match). By focusing harder and shoring up her game at the right moments, she's truly evolving into a top player. Germany is so hungry for a champion after they were spoiled with Steffi Graf. Perhaps Petkovic can rise to the occasion.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Warming up - 4/19/2011
Date: 4/19/2011
Result: Fes R1, Aravane Rezai def. Arantxa Rus, 4-6 6-4 6-3
Why it matters:
- It's crunch time for Rezai. Fast. Her year has been as close to a total disaster as possible. She's ranked 123rd in year to date points. And what else would you want when she's playing with no confidence? To gear up for her title defense in Madrid! This win might actually begin to turn things around for the French player, though. First, she's back on clay, which actually rewards her play. She hits hard and isn't a great mover, but she takes such massive swings that she needs the extra time clay gives her to wind up and pick her spots. By starting in the low-pressure atmosphere of Fes (rather than Stuttgart, for example) to kick off her clay court season, she should be able to get the extra matches to build her confidence on the surface. Additionally, this match in particular should be good because she remembered how to use her competitiveness and fight to her advantage in coming back from 6-4 4-2 down. If she remembers that not everything will always go perfectly, but that the right attitude can make up for things sometimes, she might come through more often than she's been able to this year.
- For Rus, she still is trying to match the career of her namesake. After a promising junior career, her rise up the pro ranks has been slow but steady. But it has been steady in the right direction. Matches like this will sting, but she's still young. The young Dutchwoman from Monster needs to get mentally tougher and improve her serve if she wants to become a bigger threat, especially on surfaces other than clay. But on clay she should be ready to challenge people now. She moves well, defends the court effectively, and can use her "tricky" leftiness to give opponents a different look on a lot of shots. She will need to step up and close points, either with down the line shots or by closing the net though if she wants to take matches, rather than hope her opponent gives it away. Unfortunately, on this day, she waited for Rezai to finish losing, and Aravane never did.
Honorable Mentions:
- Barcelona R1, Juan Carlos Ferrero def. Xavier Malisse - 64 62 - Ferrero picked a Spanish event to make his big comeback from injury. After months away, he really needs to build some solid results to revive his ranking for one final push before inevitable retirement. I watched his previous last match live in New York vs. Melzer, and you could see he was slow. Only time will tell if that was solely due to injury or if it was a sign of the final decline. It would be sad if this former #1, who had a career revival of sorts in 2010 winning 3 titles, went down due to injury and faded away. Hopefully he'll put things together for a final run of good form before he decides he wants to retire on his own terms.
- Stuttgart R1, Zuzana Kucova def. Anna Chakvetadze - 16 75 44 ret. - First the harrowing experience of being robbed caused Chakvetadze to lose lots of her confidence, and now a strange illness is keeping her from competing at the highest level. Even if Chakvetadze is not the player who once reached #5 in the world in 2007, she's good enough to beat the likes of Kucova, and was proving it until she started to feel unwell. It looks like she's just destined to have bad luck, but Chakvetadze is fun to watch, so as a viewer (and a compassionate human being) I really hope something will turn positive for her soon.
Result: Fes R1, Aravane Rezai def. Arantxa Rus, 4-6 6-4 6-3
Why it matters:
- It's crunch time for Rezai. Fast. Her year has been as close to a total disaster as possible. She's ranked 123rd in year to date points. And what else would you want when she's playing with no confidence? To gear up for her title defense in Madrid! This win might actually begin to turn things around for the French player, though. First, she's back on clay, which actually rewards her play. She hits hard and isn't a great mover, but she takes such massive swings that she needs the extra time clay gives her to wind up and pick her spots. By starting in the low-pressure atmosphere of Fes (rather than Stuttgart, for example) to kick off her clay court season, she should be able to get the extra matches to build her confidence on the surface. Additionally, this match in particular should be good because she remembered how to use her competitiveness and fight to her advantage in coming back from 6-4 4-2 down. If she remembers that not everything will always go perfectly, but that the right attitude can make up for things sometimes, she might come through more often than she's been able to this year.
- For Rus, she still is trying to match the career of her namesake. After a promising junior career, her rise up the pro ranks has been slow but steady. But it has been steady in the right direction. Matches like this will sting, but she's still young. The young Dutchwoman from Monster needs to get mentally tougher and improve her serve if she wants to become a bigger threat, especially on surfaces other than clay. But on clay she should be ready to challenge people now. She moves well, defends the court effectively, and can use her "tricky" leftiness to give opponents a different look on a lot of shots. She will need to step up and close points, either with down the line shots or by closing the net though if she wants to take matches, rather than hope her opponent gives it away. Unfortunately, on this day, she waited for Rezai to finish losing, and Aravane never did.
Honorable Mentions:
- Barcelona R1, Juan Carlos Ferrero def. Xavier Malisse - 64 62 - Ferrero picked a Spanish event to make his big comeback from injury. After months away, he really needs to build some solid results to revive his ranking for one final push before inevitable retirement. I watched his previous last match live in New York vs. Melzer, and you could see he was slow. Only time will tell if that was solely due to injury or if it was a sign of the final decline. It would be sad if this former #1, who had a career revival of sorts in 2010 winning 3 titles, went down due to injury and faded away. Hopefully he'll put things together for a final run of good form before he decides he wants to retire on his own terms.
- Stuttgart R1, Zuzana Kucova def. Anna Chakvetadze - 16 75 44 ret. - First the harrowing experience of being robbed caused Chakvetadze to lose lots of her confidence, and now a strange illness is keeping her from competing at the highest level. Even if Chakvetadze is not the player who once reached #5 in the world in 2007, she's good enough to beat the likes of Kucova, and was proving it until she started to feel unwell. It looks like she's just destined to have bad luck, but Chakvetadze is fun to watch, so as a viewer (and a compassionate human being) I really hope something will turn positive for her soon.
Monday, April 18, 2011
Breaking through on clay - 4/18/2011
Date: 4/18/2011
Result: Barcelona R1, Kevin Anderson def. Pablo Cuevas, 7-5 3-6 6-4
Why it matters:
- An impressive win for Anderson. With just two career wins on clay before this match - one a retirement, the other over Donald Young in Houston - this has to be considered an unexpected upset, even if Anderson was the seeded player. Anderson is steadily improving though, both generally and on clay, coming off a title in Johannesburg, plus a quarterfinal in Miami, and reaching a career high ranking. If Anderson can pick off a few more wins on his worst surface, his ranking will continue to rocket up. With his poor prior results, he has no points to defend over the next few weeks. His goal should be to move into a good seeding position for Wimbledon. On grass, his big game could do significant damage, so ensuring that he'll avoid the top guys, at least for a few rounds, would do him wonders.
- For Cuevas, this is a disappointing outcome in a winnable match. Cuevas needs to win these matches to become relevant. His win over Roddick in Miami did a lot, but when you click on Cuevas's profile on the official website, you still get his doubles results as a default. His 2008 French Open title is a good reason why, but he's been playing more singles than doubles this year, and more successfully, too. Good results this clay season in Europe could turn him into a current singles threat, rather than just a doubles once-was.
Honorable Mentions:
- Fes R1, Simona Halep def. Anastasia Yakimova - 62 60 - Halep is back at the site of her big breakthrough last year. There are two types of players - those who love that "winning feeling" and do great at the same events year after year, and those who crumble when trying to defend ranking points. Halep is trying to show she's the former, with an impressive win featuring 7 breaks of serve by Halep (Yakimova never held).
- Fes R1, Ksenia Pervak def. Angelique Kerber - 61 46 63 - Kerber opts out of a big event in her home country, to play down apparently to try to get some confidence back after a rough start to the year, and she goes down in the first round. I think taking the easy payday at home and chance for extra points (confidence or not) would've been the wise move. If she wants to play down other weeks, that's fine, but playing at home, especially somewhere like Germany which doesn't have many women's events, would've seemed logical. Pervak's still developing on clay courts, but if she's willing to grind like she was today, her good results will come soon.
Result: Barcelona R1, Kevin Anderson def. Pablo Cuevas, 7-5 3-6 6-4
Why it matters:
- An impressive win for Anderson. With just two career wins on clay before this match - one a retirement, the other over Donald Young in Houston - this has to be considered an unexpected upset, even if Anderson was the seeded player. Anderson is steadily improving though, both generally and on clay, coming off a title in Johannesburg, plus a quarterfinal in Miami, and reaching a career high ranking. If Anderson can pick off a few more wins on his worst surface, his ranking will continue to rocket up. With his poor prior results, he has no points to defend over the next few weeks. His goal should be to move into a good seeding position for Wimbledon. On grass, his big game could do significant damage, so ensuring that he'll avoid the top guys, at least for a few rounds, would do him wonders.
- For Cuevas, this is a disappointing outcome in a winnable match. Cuevas needs to win these matches to become relevant. His win over Roddick in Miami did a lot, but when you click on Cuevas's profile on the official website, you still get his doubles results as a default. His 2008 French Open title is a good reason why, but he's been playing more singles than doubles this year, and more successfully, too. Good results this clay season in Europe could turn him into a current singles threat, rather than just a doubles once-was.
Honorable Mentions:
- Fes R1, Simona Halep def. Anastasia Yakimova - 62 60 - Halep is back at the site of her big breakthrough last year. There are two types of players - those who love that "winning feeling" and do great at the same events year after year, and those who crumble when trying to defend ranking points. Halep is trying to show she's the former, with an impressive win featuring 7 breaks of serve by Halep (Yakimova never held).
- Fes R1, Ksenia Pervak def. Angelique Kerber - 61 46 63 - Kerber opts out of a big event in her home country, to play down apparently to try to get some confidence back after a rough start to the year, and she goes down in the first round. I think taking the easy payday at home and chance for extra points (confidence or not) would've been the wise move. If she wants to play down other weeks, that's fine, but playing at home, especially somewhere like Germany which doesn't have many women's events, would've seemed logical. Pervak's still developing on clay courts, but if she's willing to grind like she was today, her good results will come soon.
"Enough" - 4/17/2011
Date: 4/17/2011
Result: Monte-Carlo F, Rafael Nadal def. David Ferrer, 6-4 7-5
Why it matters:
- Ferrer tried his hardest, competed well, went for his shots as often as possible, dictated a lot of rallies, and it wasn't enough. But he made it competitive. And that's enough for him at this point. He hung tough with the so-called king of clay and kept up his own momentum on the surface. The best possible thing for the long-haul, though maybe not for this final? He actually didn't play that great, though he competed hard and tried a smart strategy. If he can more successfully execute his game plan, why can't he be the next one to stop Nadal, maybe even at Roland Garros? He's fit enough and determined enough. Don't sleep on Ferrer.
- Rafa looked vulnerable. He didn't attack enough once again - now two matches in a row without playing the "right" way start-to-finish. But he did enough. The problem is he isn't Pete Sampras. He can't take it easy, win quick serve games, and then look for a single break per set. He needs to work hard for everything. If he does "just enough" to win, then it might take 2 hours 14 minutes like this match did. So in the end it might take more out of him. He did do enough, though. And now he's the first player to win a tournament 7 consecutive years and he's got 19 Masters titles. But I don't imagine that those numbers are "enough" for Nadal.
Honorable Mentions:
- Fed Cup World Group Playoffs, Aleksandra Krunic/Jelena Jankovic def. Magdalena Rybarikova/Daniela Hantuchova - 26 75 97 - I think the way Fed Cup has doubles as the fifth match can sometimes be foolish - no one will stick around for doubles if a team his already clinched the tie - but sometimes creates epic drama. In doubles, it always seems more possible for a dramatic turn of events with fast paced action and quick momentum shifts. And that is what we saw after the Slovakian duo of Rybarikova and Hantuchova were up 6-2 5-1, and subsequently lost 6 games in a row, blew 3 match points, only to regroup in the 3rd and serve for the match again, then lose once and for all at 9-7. On paper, Serbia is the more deserving of a spot in the elite World Group - Hantuchova and Cibulkova are good, but Ivanovic and Jankovic have had better careers AND are better currently - and so it's great to see them back next year. However, the most impressive is that it was Krunic, a player with limited experience, was able to have such a heroic moment.
- Fed Cup World Group Playoffs, Andrea Petkovic def. Melanie Oudin - 62 63 - Petkovic is better than Oudin, and definitely better than Oudin on clay. As impressive as the US team has been in reaching the last two Fed Cup Finals, they have had a LOT of luck. Oudin may be a fighter, as is Bethanie Mattek-Sands, but the truth is that the US squad, as is, doesn't deserve to be considered among the top 8 national teams in the world.
Result: Monte-Carlo F, Rafael Nadal def. David Ferrer, 6-4 7-5
Why it matters:
- Ferrer tried his hardest, competed well, went for his shots as often as possible, dictated a lot of rallies, and it wasn't enough. But he made it competitive. And that's enough for him at this point. He hung tough with the so-called king of clay and kept up his own momentum on the surface. The best possible thing for the long-haul, though maybe not for this final? He actually didn't play that great, though he competed hard and tried a smart strategy. If he can more successfully execute his game plan, why can't he be the next one to stop Nadal, maybe even at Roland Garros? He's fit enough and determined enough. Don't sleep on Ferrer.
- Rafa looked vulnerable. He didn't attack enough once again - now two matches in a row without playing the "right" way start-to-finish. But he did enough. The problem is he isn't Pete Sampras. He can't take it easy, win quick serve games, and then look for a single break per set. He needs to work hard for everything. If he does "just enough" to win, then it might take 2 hours 14 minutes like this match did. So in the end it might take more out of him. He did do enough, though. And now he's the first player to win a tournament 7 consecutive years and he's got 19 Masters titles. But I don't imagine that those numbers are "enough" for Nadal.
Honorable Mentions:
- Fed Cup World Group Playoffs, Aleksandra Krunic/Jelena Jankovic def. Magdalena Rybarikova/Daniela Hantuchova - 26 75 97 - I think the way Fed Cup has doubles as the fifth match can sometimes be foolish - no one will stick around for doubles if a team his already clinched the tie - but sometimes creates epic drama. In doubles, it always seems more possible for a dramatic turn of events with fast paced action and quick momentum shifts. And that is what we saw after the Slovakian duo of Rybarikova and Hantuchova were up 6-2 5-1, and subsequently lost 6 games in a row, blew 3 match points, only to regroup in the 3rd and serve for the match again, then lose once and for all at 9-7. On paper, Serbia is the more deserving of a spot in the elite World Group - Hantuchova and Cibulkova are good, but Ivanovic and Jankovic have had better careers AND are better currently - and so it's great to see them back next year. However, the most impressive is that it was Krunic, a player with limited experience, was able to have such a heroic moment.
- Fed Cup World Group Playoffs, Andrea Petkovic def. Melanie Oudin - 62 63 - Petkovic is better than Oudin, and definitely better than Oudin on clay. As impressive as the US team has been in reaching the last two Fed Cup Finals, they have had a LOT of luck. Oudin may be a fighter, as is Bethanie Mattek-Sands, but the truth is that the US squad, as is, doesn't deserve to be considered among the top 8 national teams in the world.
Saturday, April 16, 2011
What the loss of a set means - 4/16/2011
Date: 4/16/2011
Result: Monte-Carlo SF, Rafael Nadal def. Andy Murray, 6-4 2-6 6-1
Why it matters:
- Rafael Nadal lost a set at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters. The first time since the 2009 final against Djokovic. These matches were EXTREMELY similar. Nadal lost the plot for parts of the first and the second set. Murray played well, clearly, but Rafa let him. Nadal's shots landed short, didn't penetrate, didn't create the angles they needed to, so Murray stepped up and closed out the points. This certainly means something for Nadal. The last thing he wants to do is be exposed against an opponent with control of the outcome not in his hands. But the minute he started that third set with a clean slate, he picked up the play, went back to his vintage style, and won the match comfortably. I think the moral of the story is Nadal can't win every tournament on clay every year without dropping a set. He lost sets to Almagro and Gulbis last year en route to titles in Madrid and Rome, respectively. He can lose a set, especially against a talented player like Murray, and still be the dominant clay court player we've seen for years. He just can't make a habit of it.
- Murray had the week he really needed to have this week. I said he needed a big run on clay, and he's already put one together. But for the confidence to stick, he needs two things: (1) to make another solid run where his seeding holds up - essentially to the semis (or finals of Barcelona) - to cement things and (2) his elbow needs to hold up. Murray has consistently had injury issues that seem to stunt his good momentum. Especially on clay, where the grind can take its biggest toll. Murray is in a catch-22 situation. He needs to play and win to get the confidence back, but he really needs to be healthy for Wimbledon, where he actually has a chance to win deep in the tournament if he has confidence. If I were Andy, I would take a lot out of the results this week and rest up. And I mean really rest up - maybe even skip Madrid or Rome, depending. His focus has to be Wimbledon, and he needs to do everything necessary to give himself a real shot to win there.
Honorable Mention:
Fed Cup World Group I Playoffs, Dominika Cibulkova def. Bojana Jovanovski - 46 63 61 - I think this scoreline was expected. Jovanovski is a good up-and-coming player who is constantly improving, and Cibulkova is having a really solid season, already having beaten Zvonareva and Wozniacki. Cibulkova is a great fighter, a solid clay-courter, and an all-around better player at this point. So a 3-set win, comfortable in the end, was fairly predictable. So why did Jovanovski play rather than Jankovic, fresh off a good week in Charleston, on arguably her best surface, and who is just an all-around better player at this point that Cibulkova? Maybe the Serbian captain has some sort of master strategy here, but I don't quite understand it. It seems obvious that picking your best players would be the smart thing to do, especially when your better player has never lost a set to the possible opposition on clay. Serbia still finished the day 1-1, but with Jankovic they would've had a better chance to be 2-0.
Result: Monte-Carlo SF, Rafael Nadal def. Andy Murray, 6-4 2-6 6-1
Why it matters:
- Rafael Nadal lost a set at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters. The first time since the 2009 final against Djokovic. These matches were EXTREMELY similar. Nadal lost the plot for parts of the first and the second set. Murray played well, clearly, but Rafa let him. Nadal's shots landed short, didn't penetrate, didn't create the angles they needed to, so Murray stepped up and closed out the points. This certainly means something for Nadal. The last thing he wants to do is be exposed against an opponent with control of the outcome not in his hands. But the minute he started that third set with a clean slate, he picked up the play, went back to his vintage style, and won the match comfortably. I think the moral of the story is Nadal can't win every tournament on clay every year without dropping a set. He lost sets to Almagro and Gulbis last year en route to titles in Madrid and Rome, respectively. He can lose a set, especially against a talented player like Murray, and still be the dominant clay court player we've seen for years. He just can't make a habit of it.
- Murray had the week he really needed to have this week. I said he needed a big run on clay, and he's already put one together. But for the confidence to stick, he needs two things: (1) to make another solid run where his seeding holds up - essentially to the semis (or finals of Barcelona) - to cement things and (2) his elbow needs to hold up. Murray has consistently had injury issues that seem to stunt his good momentum. Especially on clay, where the grind can take its biggest toll. Murray is in a catch-22 situation. He needs to play and win to get the confidence back, but he really needs to be healthy for Wimbledon, where he actually has a chance to win deep in the tournament if he has confidence. If I were Andy, I would take a lot out of the results this week and rest up. And I mean really rest up - maybe even skip Madrid or Rome, depending. His focus has to be Wimbledon, and he needs to do everything necessary to give himself a real shot to win there.
Honorable Mention:
Fed Cup World Group I Playoffs, Dominika Cibulkova def. Bojana Jovanovski - 46 63 61 - I think this scoreline was expected. Jovanovski is a good up-and-coming player who is constantly improving, and Cibulkova is having a really solid season, already having beaten Zvonareva and Wozniacki. Cibulkova is a great fighter, a solid clay-courter, and an all-around better player at this point. So a 3-set win, comfortable in the end, was fairly predictable. So why did Jovanovski play rather than Jankovic, fresh off a good week in Charleston, on arguably her best surface, and who is just an all-around better player at this point that Cibulkova? Maybe the Serbian captain has some sort of master strategy here, but I don't quite understand it. It seems obvious that picking your best players would be the smart thing to do, especially when your better player has never lost a set to the possible opposition on clay. Serbia still finished the day 1-1, but with Jankovic they would've had a better chance to be 2-0.
Where does Federer go from here? - 4/15/2011
Date: 4/15/2011
Result: Monte-Carlo QF, Jurgen Melzer def. Roger Federer, 6-4 6-4
Why it matters:
- Melzer adds another scalp to his collection. After good wins over Rafa and Novak in the last 12 months, he finally picks off Roger, someone he's struggled with in their meetings - all having taken place in the last 10 months. Melzer has taken the advice I've given previously to shotmakers - just go for it and you'll win sometimes. Jurgen just attacked a lot, sometimes haphazardly, and today the shots found the court in the right place and the right time. He's still 1-3 against Roger, and the next few times things probably won't go his way again, and that's fine. He's got the big win once when it mattered, in one of the larger events, and he can take confidence away from it. Being aggressive and taking chances is the best thing he can do when faced with "better" competition, so well done to Melzer!
- I've gone a lot into what Roger is now, and what he isn't anymore, but what people should really wonder is where can he go from here. He's going home to regroup which is probably a good idea. He's got to figure out what events to target and how to finish out this year. He may want to push for #1, but playing to win every match might not be in the best interest of his legacy anymore - let Rafa and Novak do that kind of work. If Roger takes these events literally as "warm-up" then he can work on what needs work, and not worry about his results. There are too many people who can threaten him on clay to really consider another title at Roland Garros. He won his one in Paris, it meant a lot to him, and now he should just focus at his better slams - Wimbledon and the US Open. By preparing himself for the majors only, he may just stay fresh enough to peak at the right moments. And most importantly, especially right now, he might diffuse the pressure of trying to be as dominant as he once was, let a few of these "shocking" losses roll off his back, and get back to the winner's circle in London or New York.
Honorable Mention:
- Monte-Carlo QF, David Ferrer def. Viktor Troicki - 63 63 - Intriguing match between two guys who continue to fly under the radar. Ferrer took it routinely in the end, but both these guys are tough outs. Ferrer is proving that his run up to #4 in the world was no fluke, but people keep sleeping on his ability. On any surface that's foolish, but especially on the clay. Troicki is having a career year, and his style of play should be perfectly effective on clay. Look for both these guys (assuming they avoid Rafa in the draw) to make some runs over the next few weeks.
Result: Monte-Carlo QF, Jurgen Melzer def. Roger Federer, 6-4 6-4
Why it matters:
- Melzer adds another scalp to his collection. After good wins over Rafa and Novak in the last 12 months, he finally picks off Roger, someone he's struggled with in their meetings - all having taken place in the last 10 months. Melzer has taken the advice I've given previously to shotmakers - just go for it and you'll win sometimes. Jurgen just attacked a lot, sometimes haphazardly, and today the shots found the court in the right place and the right time. He's still 1-3 against Roger, and the next few times things probably won't go his way again, and that's fine. He's got the big win once when it mattered, in one of the larger events, and he can take confidence away from it. Being aggressive and taking chances is the best thing he can do when faced with "better" competition, so well done to Melzer!
- I've gone a lot into what Roger is now, and what he isn't anymore, but what people should really wonder is where can he go from here. He's going home to regroup which is probably a good idea. He's got to figure out what events to target and how to finish out this year. He may want to push for #1, but playing to win every match might not be in the best interest of his legacy anymore - let Rafa and Novak do that kind of work. If Roger takes these events literally as "warm-up" then he can work on what needs work, and not worry about his results. There are too many people who can threaten him on clay to really consider another title at Roland Garros. He won his one in Paris, it meant a lot to him, and now he should just focus at his better slams - Wimbledon and the US Open. By preparing himself for the majors only, he may just stay fresh enough to peak at the right moments. And most importantly, especially right now, he might diffuse the pressure of trying to be as dominant as he once was, let a few of these "shocking" losses roll off his back, and get back to the winner's circle in London or New York.
Honorable Mention:
- Monte-Carlo QF, David Ferrer def. Viktor Troicki - 63 63 - Intriguing match between two guys who continue to fly under the radar. Ferrer took it routinely in the end, but both these guys are tough outs. Ferrer is proving that his run up to #4 in the world was no fluke, but people keep sleeping on his ability. On any surface that's foolish, but especially on the clay. Troicki is having a career year, and his style of play should be perfectly effective on clay. Look for both these guys (assuming they avoid Rafa in the draw) to make some runs over the next few weeks.
Friday, April 15, 2011
Closing Window - 4/14/2011
Date: 4/14/2011
Result: Monte-Carlo R3, Andy Murray def. Gilles Simon, 6-3 6-3
Why it matters:
- So I've regularly recounted Murray's travails since I started my blog, but always in the honorable mentions section. This a truly noteworthy result, and for the positive for Murray. He beat someone who, although not at his absolute best on clay, has spent more time on the surface than Murray. This is the type of win that'll kick start Murray's campaign for the year. But he can't stop. He missed out on his opportunity to join the "Federer-beating" that Nadal and especially Djokovic have made their hobby this year that have put the new generation in the forefront. Murray is their contemporary, and supposedly their equal as well. And he has a great record against Federer. If he can pick up a big win over someone like Roger on clay, then he might jump back in the conversation among the elite contenders at every major. Despite the fact that he finaled in Australia, his lack of competitiveness against Djokovic concerns most pundits, who wonder if he ever can win one. He needs to get back in the conversation, before another talking point comes up.
- Simon's loss means no French players are left. That's a scary thought for the French public desperate for a home champion. The French haven't performed on the terre battue for awhile now. France has the fraternity of players that Spain has, but doesn't have a "leader" that can motivate the others. Simon could be that leader. He's likeable, motivated and most importantly Simon seems like he's got the skills and ability on all surfaces to succeed, as well as a good record and experience against the top guys. If Simon can bear down and take on the mantle to lead the French charge, before guys like Tsonga, Monfils, and Gasquet move past their prime, then perhaps the French can have their home champion sooner rather than later.
Honorable Mention:
- Monte-Carlo R3, Ivan Ljubicic def. Tomas Berdych - 64 62 - After his ranking dipped following his early loss in Indian Wells, it seemed like the beginning of the end for Ljubicic. But a spirited run in Monte-Carlo, his hometown, may have revived things. Berdych has been playing well, and this loss isn't embarrassing. He just needs to make sure that he's "on" for his big defenses in Paris and London.
Result: Monte-Carlo R3, Andy Murray def. Gilles Simon, 6-3 6-3
Why it matters:
- So I've regularly recounted Murray's travails since I started my blog, but always in the honorable mentions section. This a truly noteworthy result, and for the positive for Murray. He beat someone who, although not at his absolute best on clay, has spent more time on the surface than Murray. This is the type of win that'll kick start Murray's campaign for the year. But he can't stop. He missed out on his opportunity to join the "Federer-beating" that Nadal and especially Djokovic have made their hobby this year that have put the new generation in the forefront. Murray is their contemporary, and supposedly their equal as well. And he has a great record against Federer. If he can pick up a big win over someone like Roger on clay, then he might jump back in the conversation among the elite contenders at every major. Despite the fact that he finaled in Australia, his lack of competitiveness against Djokovic concerns most pundits, who wonder if he ever can win one. He needs to get back in the conversation, before another talking point comes up.
- Simon's loss means no French players are left. That's a scary thought for the French public desperate for a home champion. The French haven't performed on the terre battue for awhile now. France has the fraternity of players that Spain has, but doesn't have a "leader" that can motivate the others. Simon could be that leader. He's likeable, motivated and most importantly Simon seems like he's got the skills and ability on all surfaces to succeed, as well as a good record and experience against the top guys. If Simon can bear down and take on the mantle to lead the French charge, before guys like Tsonga, Monfils, and Gasquet move past their prime, then perhaps the French can have their home champion sooner rather than later.
Honorable Mention:
- Monte-Carlo R3, Ivan Ljubicic def. Tomas Berdych - 64 62 - After his ranking dipped following his early loss in Indian Wells, it seemed like the beginning of the end for Ljubicic. But a spirited run in Monte-Carlo, his hometown, may have revived things. Berdych has been playing well, and this loss isn't embarrassing. He just needs to make sure that he's "on" for his big defenses in Paris and London.
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Strange Head to Heads - 4/13/2011
Date: 4/13/2011
Result: Monte-Carlo R2, Tommy Robredo def. Fernando Verdasco, 6-4 6-3
Why it matters:
- Another win for Robredo over Verdasco, at least on clay. What is it about this match-up that is so difficult for Verdasco? Robredo is certainly more patient, usually effective on clay, also more level-headed, and has a better ability to fight when the chips are down. But Verdasco has proven he's a tough competitor on clay, too. He has firepower, the modern clay court inside-out forehand, and plenty of experience - additional qualities that work well on clay. Sometimes certain head-to-heads are skewed strangely. I think this is just one of those examples that doesn't really have a great explanation. But for Verdasco, he'll need to keep trying to get over that hump. Maybe next event...
- For Verdasco, meeting the person he can't seem to beat on clay so early in Monte-Carlo is particular bad luck. As defending finalist, his ranking is about to take a big hit, and his results and form this year don't indicate that things are going to turn around any time soon, when he still has a title in Barcelona, semifinal in Rome, and final in Nice to defend. What's more, he's let a personal problem cost him a shot at defending in Barcelona - he feels unappreciated. Verdasco is opting instead to skip the tournament and play in the 250 level Estoril event instead the week after. Having personal pride is important, but Verdasco needs ranking points. He should've really just bitten the bullet and entered anyway. The best revenge would be to win the title again.
Honorable Mentions:
- Monte-Carlo R2, Nicolas Almagro def. Maximo Gonzalez - 67 75 76 - Given their career paths and respective years, who would've expected this kind of dogfight. But you know a match is good when you've got other players tweeting about it almost point-by-point. It just goes to show that a lot of effort and determination can get you close on clay and make for great matches. Unfortunately, sometimes it can't take you across that finish line.
- Monte-Carlo R2, Andy Murray def. Radek Stepanek - 61 64 - Murray finally wins a match! And on clay, no less, without his clay court mentor Alex Corretja. This was a solid win over someone who knows how to work a clay court well. But for Murray it's always going to be about attitude. I think his extended mental vacation (not to mention physical vacation having played so little tennis) may just have refreshed him. But as I've said previously, he better have some positive momentum come Wimbledon if he wants any chance of thrilling the home fans in early July.
Result: Monte-Carlo R2, Tommy Robredo def. Fernando Verdasco, 6-4 6-3
Why it matters:
- Another win for Robredo over Verdasco, at least on clay. What is it about this match-up that is so difficult for Verdasco? Robredo is certainly more patient, usually effective on clay, also more level-headed, and has a better ability to fight when the chips are down. But Verdasco has proven he's a tough competitor on clay, too. He has firepower, the modern clay court inside-out forehand, and plenty of experience - additional qualities that work well on clay. Sometimes certain head-to-heads are skewed strangely. I think this is just one of those examples that doesn't really have a great explanation. But for Verdasco, he'll need to keep trying to get over that hump. Maybe next event...
- For Verdasco, meeting the person he can't seem to beat on clay so early in Monte-Carlo is particular bad luck. As defending finalist, his ranking is about to take a big hit, and his results and form this year don't indicate that things are going to turn around any time soon, when he still has a title in Barcelona, semifinal in Rome, and final in Nice to defend. What's more, he's let a personal problem cost him a shot at defending in Barcelona - he feels unappreciated. Verdasco is opting instead to skip the tournament and play in the 250 level Estoril event instead the week after. Having personal pride is important, but Verdasco needs ranking points. He should've really just bitten the bullet and entered anyway. The best revenge would be to win the title again.
Honorable Mentions:
- Monte-Carlo R2, Nicolas Almagro def. Maximo Gonzalez - 67 75 76 - Given their career paths and respective years, who would've expected this kind of dogfight. But you know a match is good when you've got other players tweeting about it almost point-by-point. It just goes to show that a lot of effort and determination can get you close on clay and make for great matches. Unfortunately, sometimes it can't take you across that finish line.
- Monte-Carlo R2, Andy Murray def. Radek Stepanek - 61 64 - Murray finally wins a match! And on clay, no less, without his clay court mentor Alex Corretja. This was a solid win over someone who knows how to work a clay court well. But for Murray it's always going to be about attitude. I think his extended mental vacation (not to mention physical vacation having played so little tennis) may just have refreshed him. But as I've said previously, he better have some positive momentum come Wimbledon if he wants any chance of thrilling the home fans in early July.
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
What to make of a total beatdown? - 4/12/2011
Date: 4/12/2011
Result: Monte-Carlo R2, Roger Federer def. Philipp Kohlschreiber, 6-2 6-1
Why it matters:
- This was just a joke of a matchup. 50 minutes. 4 breaks by Federer. Federer won more than half of the points played on Kohlschreiber's serve. So now everyone thinks Federer is totally back. But I'm waiting. Kohlschreiber is tricky, but Federer had only lost one set in their 5 previous matches. Although Federer has owned Kohlschreiber, the bigger story is that in 2009 when Federer had similar setbacks during the hard court season, he showed frailty in both Monte-Carlo and Rome before taking out a sub-par Nadal in Madrid, and then salvaging his season at the French. Now, Federer DID salvage his season in the end, but I'm not convinced that his level really rose until the confidence came back from getting the Roland Garros monkey off his back. Until Federer gets that big win, I don't take much out of his demolition over someone he's dominated previously. We'll see if Roger can take that big step in the next few weeks. His season may depend on it.
- For Kohlschreiber, he's troubled, and sometimes beaten, top players in big occassions. He's got a tough game-style as a tricky shotmaker who can grind until he stunningly hits a winner from an unexpected position. I think his reliance on high-risk tennis is exactly why he can win big matches, but also go out in 50 minutes. Unfortunately for Kohlschreiber, that just seems to be his game. I don't seem him becoming a speedster who runs everything down, or a massive server. But if he can work a bit more strategy into his gameplan from the get go in every match he plays, rather than rely on talent alone, he may come out on top - or at least be more competitive - a bit more regularly.
Honorable Mentions:
- Monte-Carlo R1, Feliciano Lopez def. Janko Tipsarevic - 46 63 76 - good fight back from Lopez, who usually excels on faster surfaces, but can certainly make his mark on clay. Tipsarevic lets another close match slip this year. Unlike Troicki and Djokovic, who excelled from the Davis Cup victory for Serbia, Tipsarevic hasn't made strong improvements.
- Monte-Carlo R2, Milos Raonic def. Ernests Gulbis - 64 75 - So the Raonic experience moves to the clay, and he pulls off a great win over a player coming off a big win over Dolgopolov. There's no reason Raonic can't excel on the surface, so he just needs to prove it. He should focus on trying to improve to the top 24 so he can avoid the top players at the French Open until the 4th round. For Gulbis, another example of his inconsistent results that keep his ranking below where his talent should have him.
Result: Monte-Carlo R2, Roger Federer def. Philipp Kohlschreiber, 6-2 6-1
Why it matters:
- This was just a joke of a matchup. 50 minutes. 4 breaks by Federer. Federer won more than half of the points played on Kohlschreiber's serve. So now everyone thinks Federer is totally back. But I'm waiting. Kohlschreiber is tricky, but Federer had only lost one set in their 5 previous matches. Although Federer has owned Kohlschreiber, the bigger story is that in 2009 when Federer had similar setbacks during the hard court season, he showed frailty in both Monte-Carlo and Rome before taking out a sub-par Nadal in Madrid, and then salvaging his season at the French. Now, Federer DID salvage his season in the end, but I'm not convinced that his level really rose until the confidence came back from getting the Roland Garros monkey off his back. Until Federer gets that big win, I don't take much out of his demolition over someone he's dominated previously. We'll see if Roger can take that big step in the next few weeks. His season may depend on it.
- For Kohlschreiber, he's troubled, and sometimes beaten, top players in big occassions. He's got a tough game-style as a tricky shotmaker who can grind until he stunningly hits a winner from an unexpected position. I think his reliance on high-risk tennis is exactly why he can win big matches, but also go out in 50 minutes. Unfortunately for Kohlschreiber, that just seems to be his game. I don't seem him becoming a speedster who runs everything down, or a massive server. But if he can work a bit more strategy into his gameplan from the get go in every match he plays, rather than rely on talent alone, he may come out on top - or at least be more competitive - a bit more regularly.
Honorable Mentions:
- Monte-Carlo R1, Feliciano Lopez def. Janko Tipsarevic - 46 63 76 - good fight back from Lopez, who usually excels on faster surfaces, but can certainly make his mark on clay. Tipsarevic lets another close match slip this year. Unlike Troicki and Djokovic, who excelled from the Davis Cup victory for Serbia, Tipsarevic hasn't made strong improvements.
- Monte-Carlo R2, Milos Raonic def. Ernests Gulbis - 64 75 - So the Raonic experience moves to the clay, and he pulls off a great win over a player coming off a big win over Dolgopolov. There's no reason Raonic can't excel on the surface, so he just needs to prove it. He should focus on trying to improve to the top 24 so he can avoid the top players at the French Open until the 4th round. For Gulbis, another example of his inconsistent results that keep his ranking below where his talent should have him.
Winning the matches you should win - 4/11/2011
Date: 4/11/2011
Result: Monte-Carlo R1, Jarkko Nieminen def. Julien Benneteau, 4-6 6-3 7-6
Why it matters:
- Since a severe wrist injury took Nieminen away from the game in mid-2009, he just hasn't been the same consistent performer on the tour that he had long proven himself to be. He gets enough quality wins mixed in with some poor losses nowadays, but his progress back seems to really have been slowed. Del Potro went through a severe wrist injury, but he has shown that his recovery can be mercurial. Now, of course I don't mean to suggest that Nieminen's talent matches that of Del Potro, a major winner, but it makes me wonder a bit about how the recovery process might work. I think the fact that Nieminen is the only "top" player from Finland may hamper his ability to recover. Del Potro has a strong contingent of Argentine buddies who were willing and able to practice with him when they were at home to help Del Potro remember what top-flight competition is like. Nieminen, while likeable enough, probably did not have his "pick of the litter" of top talent while home in Finland recuperating. It just makes Nieminen's career impressive as a whole that he had to be the single trend-setter in his nation to perform well on tour. I wonder if, but highly doubt, we'll see a crop of young Finns storming the tour in the next decade following in the footsteps of Jarkko.
- Benneteau probably should have won this match. Not just because he served for it, but because on paper he seemed more impressive. Although his year has been less than stellar, he's had some nice results on clay over his career and, as a qualifier, had positive momentum. But Benneteau seems to struggle with the players he should probably be beating. He plays the top guys tough - even gets wins at times - so he always is on the radar as a possible dark horse. Yet, if you look at his results, he goes three sets often against people ranked below him, and loses too many matches to those outside the top 100 (or gets taken to 3 or 5 sets by them and loses the next round due to fatigue). If Benneteau can stop putting pressure on himself to win the "easy" matches, the way he swings freely against the top guys, he still could stay a part of the main tour into his early 30s.
Honorable Mentions:
- Monte-Carlo R1, Robin Haase def. Nikolay Davydenko - 75 46 64 - I've said this numerous times, but I still can't believe Davydenko isn't making his push back to the top yet. With a history of solid results on clay, this is probably his last true chance to gain momentum before his nemesis - grass courts. For Haase, a good, grinding win to start the clay court season. Dutch players always seem to be fairly adept on all surfaces, but I would never pick clay as the perfect fit for Haase. That makes the result all the more impressive
- Monte-Carlo R1, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga def. Juan Monaco - 46 63 62 - Tsonga's pounding groundstrokes should allow him to have similar success on clay as someone like Robin Soderling, but Tsonga always seems to lack the patience and picks inopportune times to go for a little something extra. If Tsonga can keep his composure like he did today and play more within himself, he may be able to thrill the home crowd in Paris next month. For Monaco, another winnable match slips by. With 5 three set losses on tour already this year, along with a four set loss against Haase in Australia, Monaco has put himself in reasonable positions over and over without closing; a worrying pattern for the Argentine who would want to put himself back in the top 20.
Result: Monte-Carlo R1, Jarkko Nieminen def. Julien Benneteau, 4-6 6-3 7-6
Why it matters:
- Since a severe wrist injury took Nieminen away from the game in mid-2009, he just hasn't been the same consistent performer on the tour that he had long proven himself to be. He gets enough quality wins mixed in with some poor losses nowadays, but his progress back seems to really have been slowed. Del Potro went through a severe wrist injury, but he has shown that his recovery can be mercurial. Now, of course I don't mean to suggest that Nieminen's talent matches that of Del Potro, a major winner, but it makes me wonder a bit about how the recovery process might work. I think the fact that Nieminen is the only "top" player from Finland may hamper his ability to recover. Del Potro has a strong contingent of Argentine buddies who were willing and able to practice with him when they were at home to help Del Potro remember what top-flight competition is like. Nieminen, while likeable enough, probably did not have his "pick of the litter" of top talent while home in Finland recuperating. It just makes Nieminen's career impressive as a whole that he had to be the single trend-setter in his nation to perform well on tour. I wonder if, but highly doubt, we'll see a crop of young Finns storming the tour in the next decade following in the footsteps of Jarkko.
- Benneteau probably should have won this match. Not just because he served for it, but because on paper he seemed more impressive. Although his year has been less than stellar, he's had some nice results on clay over his career and, as a qualifier, had positive momentum. But Benneteau seems to struggle with the players he should probably be beating. He plays the top guys tough - even gets wins at times - so he always is on the radar as a possible dark horse. Yet, if you look at his results, he goes three sets often against people ranked below him, and loses too many matches to those outside the top 100 (or gets taken to 3 or 5 sets by them and loses the next round due to fatigue). If Benneteau can stop putting pressure on himself to win the "easy" matches, the way he swings freely against the top guys, he still could stay a part of the main tour into his early 30s.
Honorable Mentions:
- Monte-Carlo R1, Robin Haase def. Nikolay Davydenko - 75 46 64 - I've said this numerous times, but I still can't believe Davydenko isn't making his push back to the top yet. With a history of solid results on clay, this is probably his last true chance to gain momentum before his nemesis - grass courts. For Haase, a good, grinding win to start the clay court season. Dutch players always seem to be fairly adept on all surfaces, but I would never pick clay as the perfect fit for Haase. That makes the result all the more impressive
- Monte-Carlo R1, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga def. Juan Monaco - 46 63 62 - Tsonga's pounding groundstrokes should allow him to have similar success on clay as someone like Robin Soderling, but Tsonga always seems to lack the patience and picks inopportune times to go for a little something extra. If Tsonga can keep his composure like he did today and play more within himself, he may be able to thrill the home crowd in Paris next month. For Monaco, another winnable match slips by. With 5 three set losses on tour already this year, along with a four set loss against Haase in Australia, Monaco has put himself in reasonable positions over and over without closing; a worrying pattern for the Argentine who would want to put himself back in the top 20.
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Interesting revelations as clay season gets going - 4/10/2011
Date: 4/10/2011
Result: Houston F, Ryan Sweeting def. Kei Nishikori 6-4 7-6
Why it matters:
- It would've been nice for Kei to break through on Project 45 by taking the title, and then set his sights higher, but it seems inevitable that he'll make it to the top 45 soon. I do think there's been too much build up on Project 45, as if once he makes it there he can stop working hard. But Nishikori seems motivated enough to continue improving. So although this one goal may need to wait, the big concern for the Nishikori camp is that he looked frozen during the match. He let it get completely taken away from him. Where was the confident Nishikori that stormed through and won his first final? Where was the Nishikori of earlier this week in Houston where he had yet to drop a set? Perhaps it was just an off day, but if Nishikori wants to push into the upper echelon of the game, he better be sure that his nerves won't get the best of him when he's the favorite to win big matches.
- For Ryan, this is impressive. Ok, so it's not the most impressive field of the year, but there were enough decent claycourters who showed up, not to mention many more accomplished players generally. At 17-32 career at the tour level coming in, this is a great effort no matter the field. An impressive junior player, Sweeting really has been a late bloomer. But as I mentioned at the beginning of the week, Sweeting's game looks like it transitions well to clay. With this type of confidence boost to get him motivated for the big European road trip, with a decent draw, maybe Sweeting will be the American to watch for at Roland Garros to finally get us a player back into the second week.
- A quick note - Sweeting won this event as a wildcard. And while I'm sure it's happened many times, it makes me think back to Ivanisevic winning Wimbledon in 2001. Everyone always says "the tournament director must be pleased with himself for picking him as a wild card" whenever a wild card does well. But it always makes me wonder. Sure, wildcards are usually players who are talented, or would be a crowd-pleaser in some way, but I wonder if tournaments really think "we need to pick people who will perform well!", because if they did, then they should just give them out to the next highest ranked players as opposed to home favorites who have no chance.
Honorable Mentions:
- Marbella F, Victoria Azarenka def. Irina-Camelia Begu - 63 62 - Another win for Azarenka, and one that puts her in the top 5. The rankings speak for themselves, but I don't think of Azarenka as a top 5 player. I thought of her over the last few years as someone who could or should get to the top 5, but for some reason, now that she's there I'm still kind of surprised. And with Schiavone needing to defend her French Open title to maintain her top 4 position, Azarenka could keep moving up depending on how things play out over the next few weeks. For Begu, she didn't get her fairy-tale ending, but she already had a great week. Can she build on it?
- Monte-Carlo R1, Ernests Gulbis def. Alexandr Dolgopolov - 61 64 - Didn't see this one coming. Dolgopolov has been on fire this year, including performing well on clay, so all signs pointed to the Ukrainian putting it together in the first clay Masters Series of the year. But Gulbis had different ideas, breaking 4 times. Gulbis seems like he should be more effective on hard courts, but has consistently done his best work on clay. If Gulbis wants to become more than a dangerous floater, he'll need to build on his impressive wins.
Result: Houston F, Ryan Sweeting def. Kei Nishikori 6-4 7-6
Why it matters:
- It would've been nice for Kei to break through on Project 45 by taking the title, and then set his sights higher, but it seems inevitable that he'll make it to the top 45 soon. I do think there's been too much build up on Project 45, as if once he makes it there he can stop working hard. But Nishikori seems motivated enough to continue improving. So although this one goal may need to wait, the big concern for the Nishikori camp is that he looked frozen during the match. He let it get completely taken away from him. Where was the confident Nishikori that stormed through and won his first final? Where was the Nishikori of earlier this week in Houston where he had yet to drop a set? Perhaps it was just an off day, but if Nishikori wants to push into the upper echelon of the game, he better be sure that his nerves won't get the best of him when he's the favorite to win big matches.
- For Ryan, this is impressive. Ok, so it's not the most impressive field of the year, but there were enough decent claycourters who showed up, not to mention many more accomplished players generally. At 17-32 career at the tour level coming in, this is a great effort no matter the field. An impressive junior player, Sweeting really has been a late bloomer. But as I mentioned at the beginning of the week, Sweeting's game looks like it transitions well to clay. With this type of confidence boost to get him motivated for the big European road trip, with a decent draw, maybe Sweeting will be the American to watch for at Roland Garros to finally get us a player back into the second week.
- A quick note - Sweeting won this event as a wildcard. And while I'm sure it's happened many times, it makes me think back to Ivanisevic winning Wimbledon in 2001. Everyone always says "the tournament director must be pleased with himself for picking him as a wild card" whenever a wild card does well. But it always makes me wonder. Sure, wildcards are usually players who are talented, or would be a crowd-pleaser in some way, but I wonder if tournaments really think "we need to pick people who will perform well!", because if they did, then they should just give them out to the next highest ranked players as opposed to home favorites who have no chance.
Honorable Mentions:
- Marbella F, Victoria Azarenka def. Irina-Camelia Begu - 63 62 - Another win for Azarenka, and one that puts her in the top 5. The rankings speak for themselves, but I don't think of Azarenka as a top 5 player. I thought of her over the last few years as someone who could or should get to the top 5, but for some reason, now that she's there I'm still kind of surprised. And with Schiavone needing to defend her French Open title to maintain her top 4 position, Azarenka could keep moving up depending on how things play out over the next few weeks. For Begu, she didn't get her fairy-tale ending, but she already had a great week. Can she build on it?
- Monte-Carlo R1, Ernests Gulbis def. Alexandr Dolgopolov - 61 64 - Didn't see this one coming. Dolgopolov has been on fire this year, including performing well on clay, so all signs pointed to the Ukrainian putting it together in the first clay Masters Series of the year. But Gulbis had different ideas, breaking 4 times. Gulbis seems like he should be more effective on hard courts, but has consistently done his best work on clay. If Gulbis wants to become more than a dangerous floater, he'll need to build on his impressive wins.
Patience is key - 4/9/2011
Date: 4/9/2011
Result: Charleston SF, Caroline Wozniacki def. Jelena Jankovic 6-4 6-4
Why it matters:
- Jankovic just can't seem to win the matches against other top players. She's 3-6 in the last 12 months against the top 10. Where she used to buckle down and really work the point when she needed it the most, she seems to take chances on opening up the court at marginal times, and just making too many errors. Last year in Indian Wells, Jankovic picked apart Wozniacki with precision. Today, it seemed like she just wanted to outhit Wozniacki, always being the first to try to break open the court, even when ill-advised. Jankovic needs to remember what got her to #1, which was unbreakable determination, incredible movement, and intelligent play. Jankovic also needs some of her diva swagger back.
- Wozniacki has basically stolen the mantle from Jankovic in playing that solid tennis that is so tough to break through against. Many are asking Wozniacki to be more aggressive (including me, at times), but she would be wise to learn from Jankovic, who tried to beef up her game and her body to compete with the power-players more effectively, but ended up losing her most powerful weapons. Wozniacki should stick with what she does best. It is so effective day-in, day-out that the law of averages should mean that eventually it'll work for the 7 of 14 days needed to take home a Grand Slam title. As long as she stays patient, her crowning moment will come.
Honorable Mentions:
- Casablanca SF, Potito Starace def. Victor Hanescu - 61 67 76 - Another solid win for Starace. What was most impressive was that he kept it together after blowing a solid lead in the second set (including match points) and was able to win a tight third. For Hanescu, Monte-Carlo awaits just across the Mediterranean. Sometimes I wonder if there are "strategic" losses by players trying to make sure they are ready to try to qualify or perform well in the next event. Hanescu's effort to try to comeback here shows that he was fully committed.
- Marbella SF, Irina-Camelia Begu def. Svetlana Kuznetsova - 36 76 64 - Begu finished what Mona Barthel couldn't. Given the field in Marbella, Kuznetsova losing in the semifinals wouldn't have been shocking at the start of the week, and given the form she displayed, it's not shocking either. But all things considered, she should not be losing this match, especially to someone who had never won a tour match previously (let alone barely played any). But for Begu, she's got no pressure in the final. It should be interesting to see how she handles things.
Result: Charleston SF, Caroline Wozniacki def. Jelena Jankovic 6-4 6-4
Why it matters:
- Jankovic just can't seem to win the matches against other top players. She's 3-6 in the last 12 months against the top 10. Where she used to buckle down and really work the point when she needed it the most, she seems to take chances on opening up the court at marginal times, and just making too many errors. Last year in Indian Wells, Jankovic picked apart Wozniacki with precision. Today, it seemed like she just wanted to outhit Wozniacki, always being the first to try to break open the court, even when ill-advised. Jankovic needs to remember what got her to #1, which was unbreakable determination, incredible movement, and intelligent play. Jankovic also needs some of her diva swagger back.
- Wozniacki has basically stolen the mantle from Jankovic in playing that solid tennis that is so tough to break through against. Many are asking Wozniacki to be more aggressive (including me, at times), but she would be wise to learn from Jankovic, who tried to beef up her game and her body to compete with the power-players more effectively, but ended up losing her most powerful weapons. Wozniacki should stick with what she does best. It is so effective day-in, day-out that the law of averages should mean that eventually it'll work for the 7 of 14 days needed to take home a Grand Slam title. As long as she stays patient, her crowning moment will come.
Honorable Mentions:
- Casablanca SF, Potito Starace def. Victor Hanescu - 61 67 76 - Another solid win for Starace. What was most impressive was that he kept it together after blowing a solid lead in the second set (including match points) and was able to win a tight third. For Hanescu, Monte-Carlo awaits just across the Mediterranean. Sometimes I wonder if there are "strategic" losses by players trying to make sure they are ready to try to qualify or perform well in the next event. Hanescu's effort to try to comeback here shows that he was fully committed.
- Marbella SF, Irina-Camelia Begu def. Svetlana Kuznetsova - 36 76 64 - Begu finished what Mona Barthel couldn't. Given the field in Marbella, Kuznetsova losing in the semifinals wouldn't have been shocking at the start of the week, and given the form she displayed, it's not shocking either. But all things considered, she should not be losing this match, especially to someone who had never won a tour match previously (let alone barely played any). But for Begu, she's got no pressure in the final. It should be interesting to see how she handles things.
Saturday, April 9, 2011
Does anyone like serve-fests? - 4/8/2011
Date: 4/8/2011
Result: Houston QF, Ivo Karlovic def. John Isner 7-6 6-7 7-6
Why it matters:
- It might not get any closer than this, but do we care? Sure, the final set tiebreak was exciting, and match points were saved which usually thrills the crowd. But think about the inevitable string of 12 service holds just to get to a (potentially) interesting tiebreak. I say potentially because 7-2 tiebreaks, like in the first two sets, are rarely incredibly entertaining. Granted, there was a flurry of action at the end of the 2nd set also, where the players traded breaks at 5-5 to set up the tiebreak. But even in that case, the point stands that it took 10 service holds until something exciting happened. I don't blame the scoring system - I think shorter sets would be more problematic in most matches - and I don't blame the guys for using their natural gifts (they teamed to be the tallest doubles pair ever in 2008) to develop devastating serve games, it's just an unfortunate circumstance when they have to meet, because I don't find the matches compelling. This one is over at least, and Karlovic will play on.
-Speaking of Ivo, the 2007 champion on green clay, is having great success on the unauthentic red clay this time around too. The Har-tru in play in 2007 is similar to the synthetic red used in Houston now. For those who haven't played on it, it's faster than true red clay, and also slipperier to move on. Given that description and thoughts of how Karlovic plays, it's not too surprising that he's had success in Houston. Add that to the fact that he seems to love being in the US, and is enjoying the Rockets' home games and Final Four while in town, Ivo seems at home in Houston.
- For Isner, another loss where he clearly had chances to win. These ones sting for someone pushing to become a fixture in the top 20. Isner will never be a clay court stalwart with his game style and mobility issues, but his serve and forehand should be impactful enough to wrap up matches once in awhile. We'll see if Isner can round into form and put together a run at one of the Masters Series or at the French. My money is on the tournament in Madrid, where altitude could help his serve be even more difficult to return.
Honorable Mentions:
- Marbella QF, Victoria Azarenka def. Dinara Safina - 51 ret. - If this back injury is a recurrence of the injury that (at least partially) triggered Safina's massive plummet down the rankings, then this could be the beginning of the end. She's already said she considered retirement this year. Let's hope for her sake - especially given her recent momentum - that she'll be back soon. For Azarenka, a short match has got to feel good. She's still riding her win streak following her title in Miami.
- Casablanca QF, Potito Starace def. Gilles Simon - 64 36 64 - These are the matches that keep Simon from getting back to the top 10. He has the talent, but not always the focus to finish off matches. If you only "get up" for the big tournaments, that's fine, I guess. But he enters so many small ones and loses matches he shouldn't so often, that one wonders if he should be better about selective scheduling. For Starace, almost the opposite story. He seems to be able to win some good matches in smaller events, but never puts it together when it matters most. Hopefully he can show the home crowd something good in Rome later this year.
Result: Houston QF, Ivo Karlovic def. John Isner 7-6 6-7 7-6
Why it matters:
- It might not get any closer than this, but do we care? Sure, the final set tiebreak was exciting, and match points were saved which usually thrills the crowd. But think about the inevitable string of 12 service holds just to get to a (potentially) interesting tiebreak. I say potentially because 7-2 tiebreaks, like in the first two sets, are rarely incredibly entertaining. Granted, there was a flurry of action at the end of the 2nd set also, where the players traded breaks at 5-5 to set up the tiebreak. But even in that case, the point stands that it took 10 service holds until something exciting happened. I don't blame the scoring system - I think shorter sets would be more problematic in most matches - and I don't blame the guys for using their natural gifts (they teamed to be the tallest doubles pair ever in 2008) to develop devastating serve games, it's just an unfortunate circumstance when they have to meet, because I don't find the matches compelling. This one is over at least, and Karlovic will play on.
-Speaking of Ivo, the 2007 champion on green clay, is having great success on the unauthentic red clay this time around too. The Har-tru in play in 2007 is similar to the synthetic red used in Houston now. For those who haven't played on it, it's faster than true red clay, and also slipperier to move on. Given that description and thoughts of how Karlovic plays, it's not too surprising that he's had success in Houston. Add that to the fact that he seems to love being in the US, and is enjoying the Rockets' home games and Final Four while in town, Ivo seems at home in Houston.
- For Isner, another loss where he clearly had chances to win. These ones sting for someone pushing to become a fixture in the top 20. Isner will never be a clay court stalwart with his game style and mobility issues, but his serve and forehand should be impactful enough to wrap up matches once in awhile. We'll see if Isner can round into form and put together a run at one of the Masters Series or at the French. My money is on the tournament in Madrid, where altitude could help his serve be even more difficult to return.
Honorable Mentions:
- Marbella QF, Victoria Azarenka def. Dinara Safina - 51 ret. - If this back injury is a recurrence of the injury that (at least partially) triggered Safina's massive plummet down the rankings, then this could be the beginning of the end. She's already said she considered retirement this year. Let's hope for her sake - especially given her recent momentum - that she'll be back soon. For Azarenka, a short match has got to feel good. She's still riding her win streak following her title in Miami.
- Casablanca QF, Potito Starace def. Gilles Simon - 64 36 64 - These are the matches that keep Simon from getting back to the top 10. He has the talent, but not always the focus to finish off matches. If you only "get up" for the big tournaments, that's fine, I guess. But he enters so many small ones and loses matches he shouldn't so often, that one wonders if he should be better about selective scheduling. For Starace, almost the opposite story. He seems to be able to win some good matches in smaller events, but never puts it together when it matters most. Hopefully he can show the home crowd something good in Rome later this year.
Friday, April 8, 2011
The signs of a real slump - 4/7/2011
Date: 4/7/2011
Result: Charleston R3, Elena Vesnina def. Sam Stosur 6-4 6-1
Why it matters:
- Remember when Stosur tore apart the field in Charleston last year? Remember how she then went on to put together one of the finer clay court seasons of the last few years by reach the final in Stuttgart and Roland Garros? Well once the tennis calendar moved away from clay, Stosur's results started to level off. Sure, she was still playing well enough to maintain her top 10 ranking, but away from the clay, she's not the same threat to the top players. So we all gave her a pass. We didn't really worry about how it wasn't just the surface, but things about her serve mechanics and mental state that were keeping her from racking up more and more wins. But this kind of result makes you begin to question whether she's still suffering from a hangover from her French Open loss. Sure it's the first tournament on clay, so maybe she hasn't adjusted yet. But it was the first tournament for her on clay last year and she had no problems. And maybe Stosur has won so few titles in her career that she doesn't have a lot of experience with the pressure of defending a title. Unfortunately for her, she doesn't have a big cushion of ranking points to learn how to deal with that kind of pressure over time. She needs a quick fix. Her coach should really encourage her to go back to enjoying her tennis without expectations. If she can play freely and let go, then maybe she can make another big push on the clay.
- Vesnina is underranked. She was 22nd in late 2009 before an injury plagued 2010 and a lack of rhythm from it caused her ranking to plummet. These types of wins will help her get herself back where she belongs in the rankings - around 30. Her game is limited, and she's probably best described as "solid", but on days when the top players are off their best, a solid performance can be enough, especially on clay courts. If Vesnina ever wants to actually make a move to the elite, she'll need to take a page from someone like Zvonareva, who has enough firepower to break open rallies when necessary, while solid play is usually enough the rest of the time. Unfortunately, the window of opportunity for such improvement might already be shut.
Honorable Mentions:
- Charleston R3, Caroline Wozniacki def. Barbora Zahlavova Strycova - 76 76 - If you watched this match, you know Strycova had ample opportunity to pull off the shock result. She's talented, fiery, and has variety - everything that should make her a threat on any given day on clay. But the real reason this was so close was that Wozniacki was so inconsistent. For someone who has built their game on the solid foundation of consistently good groundstrokes and movement, Wozniacki left a lot to be desired. She was the default favorite for the French Open for many, but a performance like this makes me wonder whether or not clay suits her game as well as it should seem to on paper.
- Houston R2, Kei Nishikori def. Igor Andreev - 63 63 - What a turn of events! After Andreev, whose results on hardcourt have always been middling, beat Nishikori on a surface that seemed to favor the Japanese player, Nishikori turned the tables on Andreev's most successful surface. Now Houston's clay is frankly not the same quality as European clay, and maybe on a more authentic, slower surface Andreev would have the advantage. But either way, another important win for Nishikori in his evolution to becoming an all-surface threat.
Result: Charleston R3, Elena Vesnina def. Sam Stosur 6-4 6-1
Why it matters:
- Remember when Stosur tore apart the field in Charleston last year? Remember how she then went on to put together one of the finer clay court seasons of the last few years by reach the final in Stuttgart and Roland Garros? Well once the tennis calendar moved away from clay, Stosur's results started to level off. Sure, she was still playing well enough to maintain her top 10 ranking, but away from the clay, she's not the same threat to the top players. So we all gave her a pass. We didn't really worry about how it wasn't just the surface, but things about her serve mechanics and mental state that were keeping her from racking up more and more wins. But this kind of result makes you begin to question whether she's still suffering from a hangover from her French Open loss. Sure it's the first tournament on clay, so maybe she hasn't adjusted yet. But it was the first tournament for her on clay last year and she had no problems. And maybe Stosur has won so few titles in her career that she doesn't have a lot of experience with the pressure of defending a title. Unfortunately for her, she doesn't have a big cushion of ranking points to learn how to deal with that kind of pressure over time. She needs a quick fix. Her coach should really encourage her to go back to enjoying her tennis without expectations. If she can play freely and let go, then maybe she can make another big push on the clay.
- Vesnina is underranked. She was 22nd in late 2009 before an injury plagued 2010 and a lack of rhythm from it caused her ranking to plummet. These types of wins will help her get herself back where she belongs in the rankings - around 30. Her game is limited, and she's probably best described as "solid", but on days when the top players are off their best, a solid performance can be enough, especially on clay courts. If Vesnina ever wants to actually make a move to the elite, she'll need to take a page from someone like Zvonareva, who has enough firepower to break open rallies when necessary, while solid play is usually enough the rest of the time. Unfortunately, the window of opportunity for such improvement might already be shut.
Honorable Mentions:
- Charleston R3, Caroline Wozniacki def. Barbora Zahlavova Strycova - 76 76 - If you watched this match, you know Strycova had ample opportunity to pull off the shock result. She's talented, fiery, and has variety - everything that should make her a threat on any given day on clay. But the real reason this was so close was that Wozniacki was so inconsistent. For someone who has built their game on the solid foundation of consistently good groundstrokes and movement, Wozniacki left a lot to be desired. She was the default favorite for the French Open for many, but a performance like this makes me wonder whether or not clay suits her game as well as it should seem to on paper.
- Houston R2, Kei Nishikori def. Igor Andreev - 63 63 - What a turn of events! After Andreev, whose results on hardcourt have always been middling, beat Nishikori on a surface that seemed to favor the Japanese player, Nishikori turned the tables on Andreev's most successful surface. Now Houston's clay is frankly not the same quality as European clay, and maybe on a more authentic, slower surface Andreev would have the advantage. But either way, another important win for Nishikori in his evolution to becoming an all-surface threat.
Thursday, April 7, 2011
Wasted Talent - 4/6/2011
Date: 4/6/2011
Result: Casablanca R2, Andrey Kuznetsov def. Marcos Baghdatis, 6-4 4-6 6-4
Why it matters:
-When Baghdatis is focused, motivated, and in form, he can beat anybody. He can hit any shot from any position. But if he is missing any of those 3 important qualities (focus, motivation, form), then he's just average for a pro, and can lose to basically anybody on tour. His initial slump following his breakthrough year in 2006 seemed to have been mainly due to a lack of conditioning. But he says he's gotten fit - though photos don't always prove that (he's not THAT big, but for an elite athlete...) - so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt there. But it's the motivation that seems to be missing. You never hear him saying anything about how badly he wants it, and you certainly don't see the fight on the court. He may be a showman at times, but it's more about the entertainment factor, not the desire. I'm not sure that his top level is necessarily good enough to be a dominant champion, but we know it should at least be good enough for the top 10. I don't think anyone can convince him that he'll regret wasting this amazing opportunity later in life, so hopefully he'll realize it himself soon, because he truly is fun to watch.
- For Kuznetsov, this is by far his biggest win in his whole career - only his fourth on the main tour ever - but he seems to like something about Morocco. He needs to build on these experiences if he wants to improve, especially since he seems to have decided that he wants to climb the rankings by playing challengers rather than trying to qualify for tour events most weeks. Getting to climb the rankings slowly at the challengers can be a smart choice, but many players struggle with the transition to the "big leagues" later on. If Kuznetsov makes the most of his experience in Casablanca, it might make the step up less daunting.
Honorable Mentions:
- Charleston R2, Sabine Lisicki def. Marion Bartoli - 62 63 - Bartoli's hot streak has come to an end seemingly. Oddly, she loses in the first round of her first American clay event every year. I guess it takes her time to transition, and also her aggressive game style (and lack of movement) just doesn't really suit clay. Lisicki, meanwhile, is on the comeback from a pretty severe injury in a place where she had her greatest success. Lisicki is talented, but her game can sometimes get wild. If she gets the swagger back that took her to the title in 2009, she could be a dangerous floater over the next several months.
- Marbella R2, Dinara Safina def. Tsvetana Pironkova - 63 64 - Safina really controlled the match start to finish, though that's not to say that she didn't falter at times. But if Safina can continue to play matches on her terms, once she strings more and more of these wins together she should find herself back among the games elite players, or at the very least seeded for grand slams so she can avoid some unfortunate first round matchups. Pironkova, on the other hand, better get her act together. Her poor record (9-15) since reaching the Wimbledon semifinals last year means that once July rolls around, her ranking will plummet.
Result: Casablanca R2, Andrey Kuznetsov def. Marcos Baghdatis, 6-4 4-6 6-4
Why it matters:
-When Baghdatis is focused, motivated, and in form, he can beat anybody. He can hit any shot from any position. But if he is missing any of those 3 important qualities (focus, motivation, form), then he's just average for a pro, and can lose to basically anybody on tour. His initial slump following his breakthrough year in 2006 seemed to have been mainly due to a lack of conditioning. But he says he's gotten fit - though photos don't always prove that (he's not THAT big, but for an elite athlete...) - so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt there. But it's the motivation that seems to be missing. You never hear him saying anything about how badly he wants it, and you certainly don't see the fight on the court. He may be a showman at times, but it's more about the entertainment factor, not the desire. I'm not sure that his top level is necessarily good enough to be a dominant champion, but we know it should at least be good enough for the top 10. I don't think anyone can convince him that he'll regret wasting this amazing opportunity later in life, so hopefully he'll realize it himself soon, because he truly is fun to watch.
- For Kuznetsov, this is by far his biggest win in his whole career - only his fourth on the main tour ever - but he seems to like something about Morocco. He needs to build on these experiences if he wants to improve, especially since he seems to have decided that he wants to climb the rankings by playing challengers rather than trying to qualify for tour events most weeks. Getting to climb the rankings slowly at the challengers can be a smart choice, but many players struggle with the transition to the "big leagues" later on. If Kuznetsov makes the most of his experience in Casablanca, it might make the step up less daunting.
Honorable Mentions:
- Charleston R2, Sabine Lisicki def. Marion Bartoli - 62 63 - Bartoli's hot streak has come to an end seemingly. Oddly, she loses in the first round of her first American clay event every year. I guess it takes her time to transition, and also her aggressive game style (and lack of movement) just doesn't really suit clay. Lisicki, meanwhile, is on the comeback from a pretty severe injury in a place where she had her greatest success. Lisicki is talented, but her game can sometimes get wild. If she gets the swagger back that took her to the title in 2009, she could be a dangerous floater over the next several months.
- Marbella R2, Dinara Safina def. Tsvetana Pironkova - 63 64 - Safina really controlled the match start to finish, though that's not to say that she didn't falter at times. But if Safina can continue to play matches on her terms, once she strings more and more of these wins together she should find herself back among the games elite players, or at the very least seeded for grand slams so she can avoid some unfortunate first round matchups. Pironkova, on the other hand, better get her act together. Her poor record (9-15) since reaching the Wimbledon semifinals last year means that once July rolls around, her ranking will plummet.
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Can Kuznetsova ever put it all together? - 4/5/2011
Date: 4/5/2011
Result: Marbella R1, Svetlana Kuznetsova def. Mona Barthel, 4-6 7-6 6-4
Why it matters:
- Kuznetsova is a two time major champion, including at the French Open. Therefore she's proven she can beat anyone on clay. Anyone... like Mona Barthel? No offense to Barthel (I'll discuss the impact of this for her later), but this seemed like a "why would I want to watch a crazy beatdown?" match when the draw came out. And the reason turned out to be obvious and a reason that comes up so often with Kuznetsova: Sveta is a headcase and can lose to anyone at any time. Kuznetsova has all the weaponry to be a dominant number 1. If she had the mentality to harness her skills and optimally utilize them, there's no reason she couldn't dominate even against players like Serena Williams or Kim Clijsters. She's as athletic, hits as hard, hits with more topspin, and is extremely competent at closing points from the net. But with her fragile mind, she can just lose focus at the drop of a hat - and more often than not, loses to the top players (like Williams or Clijsters) who can keep it together mentally. I've made mention before that certain players should be visiting sports psychologists, and Kuznetsova should be at the top of the list. In the end, she scraped through against Barthel. But the point is that she never should've had to.
- For Barthel, #165 in the world, a player who has never beaten anyone in the top 50, let alone a two-time major winner, closing out the match when she served for it at 5-4 in the 2nd set would've been a huge accomplishment. But for so many players, that surprising big win leads into a let down - often caused by raised expectations that come too early. Although this loss will sting, hopefully Barthel will get more motivated by how competitive she was against Kuznetsova, and will be spurred on to bigger and better things. We'll see...
Honorable Mentions:
- Houston R1, Ryan Sweeting def. Tim Smyczek - 62 62 - Sweeting's game looks like it would transition well to clay, and he's taken a first good step in Houston. Smyczek seems to have appeared out of nowhere in the last several months, playing extremely well and shooting up the rankings. This loss is acceptable - Smyczek seems to be more suited to hardcourt, but by the same token, in order to become part of the US tennis conversation, Smyczek will need to post a big result somewhere - anywhere - soon.
- Casablanca R1, Frederico Gil def. Simone Bolelli - 63 61 - Gil is a solid player, not spectacular, but gave Bolelli a beatdown on this day. Gil made the finals in his home tourney at Estoril last year, so he has plenty of ranking points to defend this year. Winning a few rounds in Casablanca will help with confidence (and ranking points) before his big week coming up. Bolelli is extremely talented, having reached #36 in the world at one point, and used to have enough variety and firepower that he could excel on clay and win enough matches on hard court. But since his friend and countryman Federico Luzzi passed away stunningly from Leukemia at the end of the season in 2008, Bolelli has barely been winning matches; he most notably had a 14 match losing streak from the end of 2009 to 2010. Hopefully Simone will regain his focus and make another push towards the top of the game, but at age 25, his time is limited.
Result: Marbella R1, Svetlana Kuznetsova def. Mona Barthel, 4-6 7-6 6-4
Why it matters:
- Kuznetsova is a two time major champion, including at the French Open. Therefore she's proven she can beat anyone on clay. Anyone... like Mona Barthel? No offense to Barthel (I'll discuss the impact of this for her later), but this seemed like a "why would I want to watch a crazy beatdown?" match when the draw came out. And the reason turned out to be obvious and a reason that comes up so often with Kuznetsova: Sveta is a headcase and can lose to anyone at any time. Kuznetsova has all the weaponry to be a dominant number 1. If she had the mentality to harness her skills and optimally utilize them, there's no reason she couldn't dominate even against players like Serena Williams or Kim Clijsters. She's as athletic, hits as hard, hits with more topspin, and is extremely competent at closing points from the net. But with her fragile mind, she can just lose focus at the drop of a hat - and more often than not, loses to the top players (like Williams or Clijsters) who can keep it together mentally. I've made mention before that certain players should be visiting sports psychologists, and Kuznetsova should be at the top of the list. In the end, she scraped through against Barthel. But the point is that she never should've had to.
- For Barthel, #165 in the world, a player who has never beaten anyone in the top 50, let alone a two-time major winner, closing out the match when she served for it at 5-4 in the 2nd set would've been a huge accomplishment. But for so many players, that surprising big win leads into a let down - often caused by raised expectations that come too early. Although this loss will sting, hopefully Barthel will get more motivated by how competitive she was against Kuznetsova, and will be spurred on to bigger and better things. We'll see...
Honorable Mentions:
- Houston R1, Ryan Sweeting def. Tim Smyczek - 62 62 - Sweeting's game looks like it would transition well to clay, and he's taken a first good step in Houston. Smyczek seems to have appeared out of nowhere in the last several months, playing extremely well and shooting up the rankings. This loss is acceptable - Smyczek seems to be more suited to hardcourt, but by the same token, in order to become part of the US tennis conversation, Smyczek will need to post a big result somewhere - anywhere - soon.
- Casablanca R1, Frederico Gil def. Simone Bolelli - 63 61 - Gil is a solid player, not spectacular, but gave Bolelli a beatdown on this day. Gil made the finals in his home tourney at Estoril last year, so he has plenty of ranking points to defend this year. Winning a few rounds in Casablanca will help with confidence (and ranking points) before his big week coming up. Bolelli is extremely talented, having reached #36 in the world at one point, and used to have enough variety and firepower that he could excel on clay and win enough matches on hard court. But since his friend and countryman Federico Luzzi passed away stunningly from Leukemia at the end of the season in 2008, Bolelli has barely been winning matches; he most notably had a 14 match losing streak from the end of 2009 to 2010. Hopefully Simone will regain his focus and make another push towards the top of the game, but at age 25, his time is limited.
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Bright future for some former powerhouse nations? - 4/4/2011
Date: 4/4/2011
Result: Charleston R1, Christina McHale def. Heather Watson, 5-7 6-3 7-6
Why it matters:
-Both these ladies have a lot of talent, and for each of their nations, wondering who the next great champion might be, McHale and Watson may represent the bright spots that the US and UK are looking for, respectively.
- McHale is the more intimidating player. She's got the big serve, can pound returns, and looks to open up the court by firing forehands. But she isn't a great mover. The first time I saw McHale was against Maria Sharapova at the US Open. While her annoyingly bubbly teenage fan section sitting nearby may have taken away some of my enjoyment of the match, you could see that McHale needed to polish the elements, but had the elements. She's done a good job improving (has wins over Kuznetsova and Petrova, to name a few), but needs to be grittier, more determined and believe in her shots at the right times. Winning a dogfight like this should help her improve.
- I first saw Watson playing on tv in Eastbourne in 2010, taking out Aleksandra Wozniak - she beat eventual Wimbledon semifinalist Tsevetana Pironkova in the qualifying there - and was impressed with her attitude and game. She's had a very solid season so far for someone who is continuing to improve. Yet she's the opposite of McHale in many ways. She's got weapons, no doubt, but it's her fighting spirit that really sees her stick in many matches. Like many players who win on emotion, she can let the negative creep in along with the positive, which can cost her in situations like the one she faced in Charleston. However, her perspective is truly impressive. Shortly afterwards, she tweeted "Learned A LOT today... now ready to hit the gym for a couple weeks !" That kind of attitude can only spell good things for a player determined to improve. While she's too young to do anything major at Wimbledon, I think the Brits would be pleased even if she won a round or two - assuming the pressure of the British media doesn't become to big too quickly for the young Watson.
Honorable Mentions:
- Houston R1, Grigor Dimitrov def. Rainer Schuettler - 60 62 - Dimitrov is the wave of the future (supposedly), and wins like this will make more people believers. Schuettler, at his best, was one of the grittiest fighters on tour, and ground his way up to #5 in the world . While Schuettler's best days are behind him, Dimitrov's win while dropping just 2 games is still impressive - it required a strong mental focus for the whole match against a former top player. For someone as young as Dimitrov, that type of focus is never a bad sign.
- Marbella R1, Alexandra Dulgheru def. Anastasia Pivovarova - 76 67 75 - After her big run in Miami, Dulgheru apparently wasn't completely ready to transition back to clay courts. But she competed well, as she always does, and came out on top. Expect her to round into form quickly. For Pivovarova, she's still on her way in the right direction. Look for her to improve on her already solid performances over the last 12 months, especially during the clay season.
Result: Charleston R1, Christina McHale def. Heather Watson, 5-7 6-3 7-6
Why it matters:
-Both these ladies have a lot of talent, and for each of their nations, wondering who the next great champion might be, McHale and Watson may represent the bright spots that the US and UK are looking for, respectively.
- McHale is the more intimidating player. She's got the big serve, can pound returns, and looks to open up the court by firing forehands. But she isn't a great mover. The first time I saw McHale was against Maria Sharapova at the US Open. While her annoyingly bubbly teenage fan section sitting nearby may have taken away some of my enjoyment of the match, you could see that McHale needed to polish the elements, but had the elements. She's done a good job improving (has wins over Kuznetsova and Petrova, to name a few), but needs to be grittier, more determined and believe in her shots at the right times. Winning a dogfight like this should help her improve.
- I first saw Watson playing on tv in Eastbourne in 2010, taking out Aleksandra Wozniak - she beat eventual Wimbledon semifinalist Tsevetana Pironkova in the qualifying there - and was impressed with her attitude and game. She's had a very solid season so far for someone who is continuing to improve. Yet she's the opposite of McHale in many ways. She's got weapons, no doubt, but it's her fighting spirit that really sees her stick in many matches. Like many players who win on emotion, she can let the negative creep in along with the positive, which can cost her in situations like the one she faced in Charleston. However, her perspective is truly impressive. Shortly afterwards, she tweeted "Learned A LOT today... now ready to hit the gym for a couple weeks !" That kind of attitude can only spell good things for a player determined to improve. While she's too young to do anything major at Wimbledon, I think the Brits would be pleased even if she won a round or two - assuming the pressure of the British media doesn't become to big too quickly for the young Watson.
Honorable Mentions:
- Houston R1, Grigor Dimitrov def. Rainer Schuettler - 60 62 - Dimitrov is the wave of the future (supposedly), and wins like this will make more people believers. Schuettler, at his best, was one of the grittiest fighters on tour, and ground his way up to #5 in the world . While Schuettler's best days are behind him, Dimitrov's win while dropping just 2 games is still impressive - it required a strong mental focus for the whole match against a former top player. For someone as young as Dimitrov, that type of focus is never a bad sign.
- Marbella R1, Alexandra Dulgheru def. Anastasia Pivovarova - 76 67 75 - After her big run in Miami, Dulgheru apparently wasn't completely ready to transition back to clay courts. But she competed well, as she always does, and came out on top. Expect her to round into form quickly. For Pivovarova, she's still on her way in the right direction. Look for her to improve on her already solid performances over the last 12 months, especially during the clay season.
Sunday, April 3, 2011
Modern tennis at its finest - 4/3/2011
Date: 4/3/2011
Result: Novak Djokovic def. Rafael Nadal, 4-6 6-3 7-6
Why it matters:
- You watched that match, right? And enjoyed it? The crowd certainly did. They were rocking and rolling. Why? Because for all the talk and nostalgia over "classic style" and "variety", etc. people forget to recognize that these guys DO play with variety. Not only can they hammer shots from every part of the court, but they mixed in plenty of dropshots, Djokovic hit some amazing lobs, both closed at net (when appropriate), there was clutch serving but also amazing returning, and the most exciting part of the modern game: the ability to transition from defense to offense with one swing. The rallies, imagination, and skills on display in today's match shows why tennis is in such an amazing place. We don't need Rafter v. Agassi anymore (though it was a rivalry I loved) to feature points with contrasting styles (Serve and Volley v. Counterpunching) because most players these days can do everything. Nadal and Djokovic surely can. And when you don't know what to expect, it makes things so much more fun.
- This rivalry is also really awesome. At 16-9 for Nadal, it's very compelling. I don't care that Novak is 0-11 on grass and clay, because he's had his chances in most of those matches - if you look at the results, Novak blows Rafa out on hard more often than Rafa does the same to Novak on clay: Nadal's easiest win on clay (lost 5 games in Rome 2007) v. Novak's easiest wins on hard court (lost 5 games in Indian Wells 2008, Cincinnati 2009, and Paris Indoors 2009). Additionally, Novak and Rafa have played at every important event on the tennis calendar (majors, Masters Series, Olympics, Year End Championships) except the Australian Open and the Shanghai Masters (the latter only in existence for 2 years thus far - and they played at the now defunct Hamburg Masters before).
- Transitioning to clay, Djokovic still has his undefeated record intact, and one has to expect he'll win at least 1 match in Monte-Carlo to match Ivan Lendl's start in 1986 - and Lendl didn't beat 8 top 10 players in the stretch. In 2009, Nadal and Djokovic met in Monte-Carlo, Rome, and Madrid (the most compelling of those matches). Look for them to meet in at least a few of those events, and potentially Roland Garros, this year as well. I think Rafa will of course be the favorite, but these matches could and should be really exciting.
Honorable Mention:
- Charleston Qualifying Final Round, Alexandra Stevenson def. Coco Vandeweghe - 62 26 64 - She's BAAAACCCKKK. Well, not really I don't think. She has qualified for the main draw in this large event, but since her injury problems started, she's not been the same player who reached the Wimbledon semifinals . She has her chance to make her mark on the main tour against Mattek-Sands. Let's see if she takes advantage.
Result: Novak Djokovic def. Rafael Nadal, 4-6 6-3 7-6
Why it matters:
- You watched that match, right? And enjoyed it? The crowd certainly did. They were rocking and rolling. Why? Because for all the talk and nostalgia over "classic style" and "variety", etc. people forget to recognize that these guys DO play with variety. Not only can they hammer shots from every part of the court, but they mixed in plenty of dropshots, Djokovic hit some amazing lobs, both closed at net (when appropriate), there was clutch serving but also amazing returning, and the most exciting part of the modern game: the ability to transition from defense to offense with one swing. The rallies, imagination, and skills on display in today's match shows why tennis is in such an amazing place. We don't need Rafter v. Agassi anymore (though it was a rivalry I loved) to feature points with contrasting styles (Serve and Volley v. Counterpunching) because most players these days can do everything. Nadal and Djokovic surely can. And when you don't know what to expect, it makes things so much more fun.
- This rivalry is also really awesome. At 16-9 for Nadal, it's very compelling. I don't care that Novak is 0-11 on grass and clay, because he's had his chances in most of those matches - if you look at the results, Novak blows Rafa out on hard more often than Rafa does the same to Novak on clay: Nadal's easiest win on clay (lost 5 games in Rome 2007) v. Novak's easiest wins on hard court (lost 5 games in Indian Wells 2008, Cincinnati 2009, and Paris Indoors 2009). Additionally, Novak and Rafa have played at every important event on the tennis calendar (majors, Masters Series, Olympics, Year End Championships) except the Australian Open and the Shanghai Masters (the latter only in existence for 2 years thus far - and they played at the now defunct Hamburg Masters before).
- Transitioning to clay, Djokovic still has his undefeated record intact, and one has to expect he'll win at least 1 match in Monte-Carlo to match Ivan Lendl's start in 1986 - and Lendl didn't beat 8 top 10 players in the stretch. In 2009, Nadal and Djokovic met in Monte-Carlo, Rome, and Madrid (the most compelling of those matches). Look for them to meet in at least a few of those events, and potentially Roland Garros, this year as well. I think Rafa will of course be the favorite, but these matches could and should be really exciting.
Honorable Mention:
- Charleston Qualifying Final Round, Alexandra Stevenson def. Coco Vandeweghe - 62 26 64 - She's BAAAACCCKKK. Well, not really I don't think. She has qualified for the main draw in this large event, but since her injury problems started, she's not been the same player who reached the Wimbledon semifinals . She has her chance to make her mark on the main tour against Mattek-Sands. Let's see if she takes advantage.
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