As tough as she seems? - 3/11/2011

Date: 3/11/2011
Result: Indian Wells R2, Shahar Peer def. Bethanie Mattek-Sands 4-6 7-6 6-3
Why it matters:
- Mattek-Sands has really developed enough variety in her game that she regularly troubles top players, and almost always beats the players she should.  Mattek-Sands projects the confidence and the fight required to continue to move up the rankings, but her results in the majors and top level Premier events keep her ranking lower than it could be.  In the last year, she has lost to beatable players like Rus, Bacsinszky, and Sprem in the big events, or pushed top players like Clijsters, Jankovic, or Peer to 3 sets with a reasonable chance to win and failed to close it out. She is also 0-3 in tour finals, further evidence that when push comes to shove, Mattek-Sands might not be as tough as she appears. With some extra work (maybe with a sports psychologist?) Bethanie could make a big push towards the top 30, before it's too late.
- Peer might be the opposite of Mattek-Sands, really getting the absolute most out of her talent.  Peer is just a few wins away from reaching the top 10 for the first time in her career.  It would be a tremendous accomplishment for the Israeli who seemed destined for a career where she would rank between 15 and 30. Peer is also peaking at a time where more accomplished players are struggling, leaving open a few top ten spots to those willing to take advantage.

Honorable Mentions:

- Indian Wells R1, Yen-Hsun Lu def. Lleyton Hewitt 62 63 - Lu is so unpredictable, having just lost to someone ranked 368 in the world, but we remember his big win at Wimbledon last year over Roddick.  Lu continues to be a wild-card performer, blowing Hewitt off the court.  If he Hewitt can't start to put together some solid wins, he will have to consider how much long he wants to play.  It might be a bit early to write Hewitt off given that he beat Federer to win the title in Halle last year, but his good results are becoming rarer each month.

- Indian Wells R1, Nikolay Davydenko def. Fabio Fognini 57 62 64 - Fognini is another player who pushed the top guys but can't cross the finish line.  But the bigger story is Davydenko, who has fallen since his extended break from tennis due to a wrist injury.  Davydenko's game requires a lot of rhythm and timing, so it's not surprising he's been struggling to string a lot of wins together.  His record in Indian Wells is poor, but his result in Miami, where he is a former champion, could be an early forecast for his year.