Exposing Weaknesses - 3/14/11

Date: 3/14/11
Result: Indian Wells R3, Dinara Safina def. Sam Stosur 7-6 6-4
Why it matters:
- Tactically, Safina started out impressively.  She picked on Stosur's backhand consistently and Sam paid the price.  She started to let go of that strategy too much in the middle of the 1st set which let Stosur back in the match.  I'm surprised no one has tried to use against Stosur the strategy people have been employing against Federer recently - pound balls to Sam's forehand to then expose the open court on her weaker backhand side and force her to hit a winner on the run.  Dinara's double faulting was out of control, but it almost didn't bother me because she was winning so many free points on serve when she did get the serve in.  The only concern is she didn't recognize her dominance in the majority of rallies once the point got going.  She could've spun more first serves in (well, in theory she can, though in practice...), especially at critical times, and relied on the good groundstroking that is the cornerstone of her game.  All in all, Dinara played a level-headed match with a real strategy.  I'm thinking at least part of the improvement tactically is due to Davide Sanguinetti, Dinara's new coach, but I don't want to give him all the credit.
- This is Safina's first win over a top 10 player since beating a slumping Schiavone in New Haven last year, and her first win over a top 5 player since beating Venus Williams in Rome in 2009.  She really showed some emotion in her win, but I don't think she's set up for a meltdown.  Look for a tenacious battle with Sharapova next round, an opponent who also is struggling with some confidence issues.
- Speaking of confidence issues, where did the "consistent major contender Sam Stosur" go?  At the French Open in 2010 she looked like a future number 1 and an all surface threat, but her results since the French make her seem more and more like a clay-court specialist - a rare moniker for an Australian.  Her serve was on fire during the match, and that's what kept her from taking a more severe beating.  But if she doesn't pick up the intensity in the next few weeks, she won't manage to match her impressive clay results from 2010.

Honorable Mentions:
- Indian Wells R3, Somdev Devvarman def. Xavier Malisse - 61 36 76 - This appeared to be Malisse's obligatory really good week in a big enough event to buoy his ranking for the next 12 months, and while R3 at a Masters Series 1000 is good, this was a match I expected him to win.  Devvarman, on the other hand, is fast rising this year, and is having some impressive results.  To be fair, his draw in Indian Wells hasn't been the most difficult, but he's made the most of it.  I don't expect too much, though, against Nadal next round.

- Indian Wells R3, Philipp Kohlschreiber def. Robin Soderling - 76 64 - Everyone had been talking about how hot Soderling has been this year, but if you look at his results, none of them were that surprising and none made you necessarily think he was becoming unbeatable.  Of his three titles this year, two were indoors (where he has always excelled, even before he was an "elite" player), and the other was in Brisbane, which has a covered roof that makes it as close to indoors as possible for an outdoor event.  His outdoor hardcourt results have always been middling, and this is further evidence.