What to make of a total beatdown? - 4/12/2011

Date: 4/12/2011
Result: Monte-Carlo R2, Roger Federer def. Philipp Kohlschreiber, 6-2 6-1
Why it matters:
- This was just a joke of a matchup. 50 minutes. 4 breaks by Federer.  Federer won more than half of the points played on Kohlschreiber's serve.  So now everyone thinks Federer is totally back.  But I'm waiting. Kohlschreiber is tricky, but Federer had only lost one set in their 5 previous matches.  Although Federer has owned Kohlschreiber, the bigger story is that in 2009 when Federer had similar setbacks during the hard court season, he showed frailty in both Monte-Carlo and Rome before taking out a sub-par Nadal in Madrid, and then salvaging his season at the French.  Now, Federer DID salvage his season in the end, but I'm not convinced that his level really rose until the confidence came back from getting the Roland Garros monkey off his back.  Until Federer gets that big win, I don't take much out of his demolition over someone he's dominated previously.  We'll see if Roger can take that big step in the next few weeks.  His season may depend on it.
- For Kohlschreiber, he's troubled, and sometimes beaten, top players in big occassions.  He's got a tough game-style as a tricky shotmaker who can grind until he stunningly hits a winner from an unexpected position. I think his reliance on high-risk tennis is exactly why he can win big matches, but also go out in 50 minutes.  Unfortunately for Kohlschreiber, that just seems to be his game.  I don't seem him becoming a speedster who runs everything down, or a massive server.  But if he can work a bit more strategy into his gameplan from the get go in every match he plays, rather than rely on talent alone, he may come out on top - or at least be more competitive - a bit more regularly.

Honorable Mentions:
- Monte-Carlo R1, Feliciano Lopez def. Janko Tipsarevic - 46 63 76 - good fight back from Lopez, who usually excels on faster surfaces, but can certainly make his mark on clay.  Tipsarevic lets another close match slip this year.  Unlike Troicki and Djokovic, who excelled from the Davis Cup victory for Serbia, Tipsarevic hasn't made strong improvements.

- Monte-Carlo R2, Milos Raonic def. Ernests Gulbis - 64 75 - So the Raonic experience moves to the clay, and he pulls off a great win over a player coming off a big win over Dolgopolov.  There's no reason Raonic can't excel on the surface, so he just needs to prove it.  He should focus on trying to improve to the top 24 so he can avoid the top players at the French Open until the 4th round.  For Gulbis, another example of his inconsistent results that keep his ranking below where his talent should have him.