Where does Federer go from here? - 4/15/2011

Date: 4/15/2011
Result: Monte-Carlo QF, Jurgen Melzer def. Roger Federer, 6-4 6-4
Why it matters:
- Melzer adds another scalp to his collection.  After good wins over Rafa and Novak in the last 12 months, he finally picks off Roger, someone he's struggled with in their meetings - all having taken place in the last 10 months.  Melzer has taken the advice I've given previously to shotmakers - just go for it and you'll win sometimes.  Jurgen just attacked a lot, sometimes haphazardly, and today the shots found the court in the right place and the right time.  He's still 1-3 against Roger, and the next few times things probably won't go his way again, and that's fine.  He's got the big win once when it mattered, in one of the larger events, and he can take confidence away from it.  Being aggressive and taking chances is the best thing he can do when faced with "better" competition, so well done to Melzer!
- I've gone a lot into what Roger is now, and what he isn't anymore, but what people should really wonder is where can he go from here.  He's going home to regroup which is probably a good idea.  He's got to figure out what events to target and how to finish out this year.  He may want to push for #1, but playing to win every match might not be in the best interest of his legacy anymore - let Rafa and Novak do that kind of work.  If Roger takes these events literally as "warm-up" then he can work on what needs work, and not worry about his results.  There are too many people who can threaten him on clay to really consider another title at Roland Garros.  He won his one in Paris, it meant a lot to him, and now he should just focus at his better slams - Wimbledon and the US Open.  By preparing himself for the majors only, he may just stay fresh enough to peak at the right moments.  And most importantly, especially right now, he might diffuse the pressure of trying to be as dominant as he once was, let a few of these "shocking" losses roll off his back, and get back to the winner's circle in London or New York.

Honorable Mention:
- Monte-Carlo QF, David Ferrer def. Viktor Troicki - 63 63 - Intriguing match between two guys who continue to fly under the radar.  Ferrer took it routinely in the end, but both these guys are tough outs.  Ferrer is proving that his run up to #4 in the world was no fluke, but people keep sleeping on his ability.  On any surface that's foolish, but especially on the clay.  Troicki is having a career year, and his style of play should be perfectly effective on clay.  Look for both these guys (assuming they avoid Rafa in the draw) to make some runs over the next few weeks.