Date: 5/26/2011
Result: Roland Garros R2, Arantxa Rus def. Kim Clijsters, 3-6 7-5 6-1
Why it matters:
- This was legitimately painful to watch. Frankly, even the tennis Clijsters was playing when she put herself at match point was pretty poor. Of course she had some winners mixed in, but she was not playing at her top level. And the minute any semblance of form left her today, it was embarrassingly bad. It's not often to see a top player collapse so incredibly, especially against someone so inexperienced. But if anyone can do it, it's Clijsters. She proved that while she has probably the most complete set of skills of any player on tour, she still only has a plan A with no plan B. She attacks and dictates when possible and defends when she has to. Although those two concepts are opposing, they can be part of the same overall plan. Plan B means having something else to go to, like a mix-up play - she could've looped some shots (she could've done this earlier in the Australian Open final against Li - it maybe would've saved her a set), attacked by coming to net (instead of letting Rus have all the time in the world to retrieve), or start slicing. Clijsters' plan A is a four-time major winning plan, so it's hard to criticize it, but if she were willing to slow down and think rather than rush back to the base line to serve, she might avoid more of these horrible losses. See you in England, Kim!
- Rus ground this out by biding her time. She acknowledged she picked up the aggressiveness late in the match, but really she didn't do anything but watch Kim lose until the third set. In the third, she fed the blaze that engulfed Kim by starting to hit her own winners and increase her depth of shot. This was an intelligent way to play and she was admirably aware of how to get the most out of Clijsters. This could spur Rus on to greater things, including here in Paris as she's created a gap in the bottom eighth of the draw. But hopefully she'll just savor the win for a day or so.
Honorable Mentions:
- Roland Garros R2, Maria Sharapova def. Caroline Garcia - 36 64 60 - This collapse was as extreme in number, but it was more traditional: the inexperienced player fell apart when she sensed her chance to win, while the champion raised her game at the most important time. Sharapova's win ensures that there isn't a massive void in the bottom quarter of the draw for a very inexperienced major semifinalist (Wickmayer the only one who has ever been to one - US Open 2009), she's still a strong favorite to get through to that round. Garcia was impressive though. It's ok for someone her age to not finish - maybe even better - as she'll learn more from a loss than a win. Add her to the list of promising young players who are ready to make a mark.
- Roland Garros R2, Lukas Rosol def. Jurgen Melzer - 67 64 46 76 64 - This was an amazing partial collapse. Rosol had the 5th wrapped up early, and then let Melzer all the way back in and Melzer frankly should've gone up a break late in the 5th. Rosol proved it's possible for a giant underdog to go through the nervy patch that costs them a lead and still regroup and return to the courageous tennis that got them to the brink of victory in the first place. Melzer will be unable take advantage of what should've been an easy draw (similar to watch Sharapova would've left if she'd lost) - now Rosol, Chela, Falla, or Kubot will be in the quarterfinals. Go with experience and go with Chela.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Lisicki's intense injury - 5/25/2011
Date: 5/25/2011
Result: Roland Garros R2, Vera Zvonareva def. Sabine Lisicki, 4-6 7-5 7-5
Why it matters:
- You have to feel bad for Lisicki, who took her chances and put herself in a great winning position not just in the final set, but the second as well. Her body just gave out on her. Such is the story of the talented German who just can't gather enough momentum to pull herself back into the upper echelons again. The weird thing was that it all came out of nowhere - she seemed fine, then all of a sudden she looked panicked on the sidelines. In the rallies, she was moving great (I even thought she might break for 6-6) and then once the match finished she needed a stretcher. I truly believe something was wrong with her, but why it became so extreme so quickly is worrisome. Lisicki could've done real damage with a kinder draw, but she'll need to look for her breakthrough elsewhere.
- Zvonareva showed mental maturity to pull back and win this match. She was being outplayed and didn't let herself get overly frustrated. That part is impressive, to be sure. However, if Zvonareva wants to make the next step to a Slam title that she couldn't make in 2010, she needs to have intensity to do so. It's a double-edged sword, unfortunately. The emotional highs and fiery attitude can push her to some great results, but once things start going wrong, the emotions can bring her to the depths, too. In her continual evolution, perhaps Zvonareva will strike that perfect balance sometime, but she's not seemed the same player who was a dominant force at the top of the game since around March/April - could her coaching situation have anything to do with it?
Honorable Mentions:
- Roland Garros R2, Caroline Wozniacki def. Aleksandra Wozniak - 63 76 - Remember how I've been saying how uptight and anxious Wozniacki has seemed? Well everyone at ESPN finally caught on. I think having an edge isn't a bad thing for Caroline, but she needs to make sure it's controlled and doesn't get the best of her. Wozniak has been struggling, but showed some of her best tennis today. We'll see if this sparks her back to the to her former heights.
-Roland Garros R2, Gael Monfils def. Guillaume Rufin - 63 16 61 63 - Will Monfils ever learn? He can't afford to assume his opponent will just roll over after he plays a good first set. Rufin tried to take advantage, and did a good job to take his chance quickly and try and stun Monfils. The problem for Monfils is that he does this in almost every match, not just matches where it is pretty clear he should win. If he were only taking mental breaks when it (probably) wouldn't cost him too much, then it's still be a bad habit, but it wouldn't cost him a chance at being an elite player like it is now.
- Roland Garros R2,
Result: Roland Garros R2, Vera Zvonareva def. Sabine Lisicki, 4-6 7-5 7-5
Why it matters:
- You have to feel bad for Lisicki, who took her chances and put herself in a great winning position not just in the final set, but the second as well. Her body just gave out on her. Such is the story of the talented German who just can't gather enough momentum to pull herself back into the upper echelons again. The weird thing was that it all came out of nowhere - she seemed fine, then all of a sudden she looked panicked on the sidelines. In the rallies, she was moving great (I even thought she might break for 6-6) and then once the match finished she needed a stretcher. I truly believe something was wrong with her, but why it became so extreme so quickly is worrisome. Lisicki could've done real damage with a kinder draw, but she'll need to look for her breakthrough elsewhere.
- Zvonareva showed mental maturity to pull back and win this match. She was being outplayed and didn't let herself get overly frustrated. That part is impressive, to be sure. However, if Zvonareva wants to make the next step to a Slam title that she couldn't make in 2010, she needs to have intensity to do so. It's a double-edged sword, unfortunately. The emotional highs and fiery attitude can push her to some great results, but once things start going wrong, the emotions can bring her to the depths, too. In her continual evolution, perhaps Zvonareva will strike that perfect balance sometime, but she's not seemed the same player who was a dominant force at the top of the game since around March/April - could her coaching situation have anything to do with it?
Honorable Mentions:
- Roland Garros R2, Caroline Wozniacki def. Aleksandra Wozniak - 63 76 - Remember how I've been saying how uptight and anxious Wozniacki has seemed? Well everyone at ESPN finally caught on. I think having an edge isn't a bad thing for Caroline, but she needs to make sure it's controlled and doesn't get the best of her. Wozniak has been struggling, but showed some of her best tennis today. We'll see if this sparks her back to the to her former heights.
-Roland Garros R2, Gael Monfils def. Guillaume Rufin - 63 16 61 63 - Will Monfils ever learn? He can't afford to assume his opponent will just roll over after he plays a good first set. Rufin tried to take advantage, and did a good job to take his chance quickly and try and stun Monfils. The problem for Monfils is that he does this in almost every match, not just matches where it is pretty clear he should win. If he were only taking mental breaks when it (probably) wouldn't cost him too much, then it's still be a bad habit, but it wouldn't cost him a chance at being an elite player like it is now.
- Roland Garros R2,
Was Rafa really in trouble? - 5/24/2011
Date: 5/24/2011
Result: Roland Garros R1, Rafael Nadal def. John Isner 6-4 6-7 6-7 6-2 6-4
Why it matters:
- Everyone is saying "the unthinkable almost happened", but did it? Sure Isner was a set away, but that was a whole set away, and when it was pretty clear he wasn't going to break again. His only realistic chance was to win in a fourth set tiebreak (Rafa himself said this was his internal analysis) and the fourth set was a blow out, so Isner never even could taste the opportunity for real. Isner did make things interesting in some ways, and by winning the tiebreaks dominantly, proved it wasn't just his serve that was winning him points. And it was easy to get caught up in the frenzy of the commentating - it's not often that a French Open match of Nadal's gets so interesting - but if you really look at what was happening, Nadal just wasn't going to lose.
- What does this mean for Nadal? Another closer than usual match so it makes you think he's not in his tip-top shape. And maybe the balls aren't as favorable to him as he thought. Azarenka implied they reminded her of playing in altitude like in Madrid in an interview on ESPN, and we know that Nadal isn't usually at his best there. Do I think he'll lose early? No, but someone like Soderling or Djokovic could be tricky for him once again.
Honorable Mentions:
- Roland Garros R1, Kim Clijsters def. Anastasia Yakimova - 62 63 - This was both easier than and not as easy as the score indicated. Kim dictated start to finish, but was incredibly patchy in her play. This may be typical for Clijsters even when she's in peak form, but this felt like a lot of rust - not surprisingly! But Clijsters won and her post-match interview with Pam Shriver showed that she's in a great frame of mind, something we didn't see in Indian Wells and Miami. Her drive to keep collecting majors should help a lot - she was even more rusty when she won her second US Open in 2009 but elevated her game with each match. Look for her to do the same in this event.
- Roland Garros R1, Ayumi Morita def. Kristina Mladenovic - 26 64 75 - Incredible comeback from Morita, who choked a break lead in the 3rd set and subsequently recovered from a 3-5 deficit in that same set. Her record of retirements (7 from 2009-2010) may make some question her fight, but she wiped away questions today. For Mladenovic, she's the next French hope, and though she plays a more modern game with less of the flair as the French crowd's beloved Amelie Mauresmo, she's got some great qualities. However, Mladenovic lacked the push to close her match that Heather Watson had yesterday. If Mladenovic, who did well in the Hopman Cup in January, wants to keep pace with her contemporaries like Watson and Sloane Stephens, to name a few, she'll need to start getting some big wins on tour.
Result: Roland Garros R1, Rafael Nadal def. John Isner 6-4 6-7 6-7 6-2 6-4
Why it matters:
- Everyone is saying "the unthinkable almost happened", but did it? Sure Isner was a set away, but that was a whole set away, and when it was pretty clear he wasn't going to break again. His only realistic chance was to win in a fourth set tiebreak (Rafa himself said this was his internal analysis) and the fourth set was a blow out, so Isner never even could taste the opportunity for real. Isner did make things interesting in some ways, and by winning the tiebreaks dominantly, proved it wasn't just his serve that was winning him points. And it was easy to get caught up in the frenzy of the commentating - it's not often that a French Open match of Nadal's gets so interesting - but if you really look at what was happening, Nadal just wasn't going to lose.
- What does this mean for Nadal? Another closer than usual match so it makes you think he's not in his tip-top shape. And maybe the balls aren't as favorable to him as he thought. Azarenka implied they reminded her of playing in altitude like in Madrid in an interview on ESPN, and we know that Nadal isn't usually at his best there. Do I think he'll lose early? No, but someone like Soderling or Djokovic could be tricky for him once again.
Honorable Mentions:
- Roland Garros R1, Kim Clijsters def. Anastasia Yakimova - 62 63 - This was both easier than and not as easy as the score indicated. Kim dictated start to finish, but was incredibly patchy in her play. This may be typical for Clijsters even when she's in peak form, but this felt like a lot of rust - not surprisingly! But Clijsters won and her post-match interview with Pam Shriver showed that she's in a great frame of mind, something we didn't see in Indian Wells and Miami. Her drive to keep collecting majors should help a lot - she was even more rusty when she won her second US Open in 2009 but elevated her game with each match. Look for her to do the same in this event.
- Roland Garros R1, Ayumi Morita def. Kristina Mladenovic - 26 64 75 - Incredible comeback from Morita, who choked a break lead in the 3rd set and subsequently recovered from a 3-5 deficit in that same set. Her record of retirements (7 from 2009-2010) may make some question her fight, but she wiped away questions today. For Mladenovic, she's the next French hope, and though she plays a more modern game with less of the flair as the French crowd's beloved Amelie Mauresmo, she's got some great qualities. However, Mladenovic lacked the push to close her match that Heather Watson had yesterday. If Mladenovic, who did well in the Hopman Cup in January, wants to keep pace with her contemporaries like Watson and Sloane Stephens, to name a few, she'll need to start getting some big wins on tour.
Monday, May 23, 2011
Collapse - 5/23/2011
Date: 5/23/2011
Result: Roland Garros R1, Sara Errani def. Christina McHale, 6-7 6-2 9-7
Why it matters:
- McHale was so close. Legitimately, problematically close. She really shouldn't have lost this. Despite the fact that coming in, few would've given her a shot in this match, once you put yourself in a winning position, it's all about closing. And McHale has proven that she's not yet a closer. Already falling 9-7 in the third once in her career, this was a chance to move past that. Her massive 5-0 lead should've clearly been enough, but then to break back when Errani served for it at 6-5 only to choke a big opportunity away again is unforgivable. McHale will have to look deep inside to stem this disturbing pattern if she wants to make a big jump up the rankings any time soon.
- The Italian has to be proud of herself. She hung tough, and she pulled out the win. But she also has to do some soul searching. Being down 5-0 in the third against an inexperienced clay courter is a little shocking for someone who plays her best tennis on clay usually. Errani is too small of stature to be able to take control of points in the same way McHale can, but why not take a page from Schiavone and close more often at net? Just 13 net approaches in a long 3-setter is crazy, especially for a talented doubles player like Sara.
Honorable Mentions:
- Roland Garros R1, Marsel Ilhan def. Tommy Haas - 64 46 76 64 - With all due respect to Ilhan, especially because his stats were truly amazing, but Tommy Haas couldn't have asked for a much more friendly draw to reintroduce himself to the tour in Paris. Fine, he's been a better grass courter over the years, so maybe this was a brief warmup before heading somewhere he can be more effective, but the truth remains that if he wants to get back to his previous ranking on tour, he'll have to be able to beat the Ilhans of the world.
- Roland Garros R1, Stephane Robert def. Tomas Berdych - 36 36 62 62 97 - This was a shocking result given how routine the opening two sets were. Berdych didn't look like he wanted to fight for it, and his apathetic tennis was almost good enough anyway. Further proof that although he's incredibly talented, but talent alone is insufficient in this day and age. Great crowd support for Robert today. It was pleasant to see the French crowd really pulling for Robert without getting against Berdych - sometimes when they become overzealous in favor of one player they feel that they need to also become antagonistic towards the other player (or vice versa). That didn't seem to be the case today, only positive emotion for Robert.
Result: Roland Garros R1, Sara Errani def. Christina McHale, 6-7 6-2 9-7
Why it matters:
- McHale was so close. Legitimately, problematically close. She really shouldn't have lost this. Despite the fact that coming in, few would've given her a shot in this match, once you put yourself in a winning position, it's all about closing. And McHale has proven that she's not yet a closer. Already falling 9-7 in the third once in her career, this was a chance to move past that. Her massive 5-0 lead should've clearly been enough, but then to break back when Errani served for it at 6-5 only to choke a big opportunity away again is unforgivable. McHale will have to look deep inside to stem this disturbing pattern if she wants to make a big jump up the rankings any time soon.
- The Italian has to be proud of herself. She hung tough, and she pulled out the win. But she also has to do some soul searching. Being down 5-0 in the third against an inexperienced clay courter is a little shocking for someone who plays her best tennis on clay usually. Errani is too small of stature to be able to take control of points in the same way McHale can, but why not take a page from Schiavone and close more often at net? Just 13 net approaches in a long 3-setter is crazy, especially for a talented doubles player like Sara.
Honorable Mentions:
- Roland Garros R1, Marsel Ilhan def. Tommy Haas - 64 46 76 64 - With all due respect to Ilhan, especially because his stats were truly amazing, but Tommy Haas couldn't have asked for a much more friendly draw to reintroduce himself to the tour in Paris. Fine, he's been a better grass courter over the years, so maybe this was a brief warmup before heading somewhere he can be more effective, but the truth remains that if he wants to get back to his previous ranking on tour, he'll have to be able to beat the Ilhans of the world.
- Roland Garros R1, Stephane Robert def. Tomas Berdych - 36 36 62 62 97 - This was a shocking result given how routine the opening two sets were. Berdych didn't look like he wanted to fight for it, and his apathetic tennis was almost good enough anyway. Further proof that although he's incredibly talented, but talent alone is insufficient in this day and age. Great crowd support for Robert today. It was pleasant to see the French crowd really pulling for Robert without getting against Berdych - sometimes when they become overzealous in favor of one player they feel that they need to also become antagonistic towards the other player (or vice versa). That didn't seem to be the case today, only positive emotion for Robert.
Sunday, May 22, 2011
Not the way to start a major - 5/22/2011
Date: 5/22/2011
Result: Roland Garros R1, Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo def. Marin Cilic, 7-6 6-4 6-4
Why it matters:
- With just three top-100 wins in the last 2 years (granted, two were this year...), and only one win ever in the first round of a major this should never have happened for Ramirez-Hidalgo. He didn't have to do so much, just wait around while Cilic self-destructed, but he did hold his nerve when Cilic decided to make a final push and try to win the match. Ramirez Hidalgo is near the end of his career, so he should savor this - if his post-match reaction was an indication, then he intends to - and also try to make the most of it as he's cleared the seed from his section now. He's got the winner of the unheralded Turk Marsel Ilhan and a just-back-from-injury Tommy Haas. He could repeat his run to the fourth round in 2006.
- What more can be said about Cilic than he needs to wake up and seem like he cares. His game is perfect for clay, but it's better than what he showed today. The big benefit for Cilic, though, is that because the top guys are SO stingy about letting anyone else win tournaments, even though his season has been unspectacular he is still 18th in the Race, counting only points from 2011, and he's just one good tournament from getting himself into the top 10. If Cilic gets in the right mindset, look for him in the US summer season, but if he doesn't, we'll have another case of wasted talent.
Honorable Mentions:
- Roland Garros R1, Varvara Lepchenko def. Flavia Pennetta - 63 26 63 - Pennetta didn't look herself and Lepchenko took advantage. This is the second time Pennetta has had a shock first round loss to an American at Roland Garros, and it's a disturbing pattern for the Italian. Believe it or not, Lepchenko is an American who prefers clay. It's probably because she was born and grew up in the Soviet Union, but she's a naturalized citizen and the Americans should be happy to have her. Now there is a guaranteed American woman in R3 because Lepchenko's next opponent is...
- Roland Garros R1, Bethanie Mattek-Sands def. Arantxa Parra Santonja - 26 76 63 - Bethanie was down and out to a clay-court specialist, but her newfound good attitude carried her through. She bided her time and reeled in her errors just in time. I'm not as brave (read: crazy) as Steve Tignor, who has chosen Mattek-Sands to make the semifinals, but winning today was important to consolidating her high ranking. Her true goal should be win enough to get into the top 32 in time for Wimbledon seedings. She's played well there before and ensuring a favorable draw may allow her another good result.
Result: Roland Garros R1, Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo def. Marin Cilic, 7-6 6-4 6-4
Why it matters:
- With just three top-100 wins in the last 2 years (granted, two were this year...), and only one win ever in the first round of a major this should never have happened for Ramirez-Hidalgo. He didn't have to do so much, just wait around while Cilic self-destructed, but he did hold his nerve when Cilic decided to make a final push and try to win the match. Ramirez Hidalgo is near the end of his career, so he should savor this - if his post-match reaction was an indication, then he intends to - and also try to make the most of it as he's cleared the seed from his section now. He's got the winner of the unheralded Turk Marsel Ilhan and a just-back-from-injury Tommy Haas. He could repeat his run to the fourth round in 2006.
- What more can be said about Cilic than he needs to wake up and seem like he cares. His game is perfect for clay, but it's better than what he showed today. The big benefit for Cilic, though, is that because the top guys are SO stingy about letting anyone else win tournaments, even though his season has been unspectacular he is still 18th in the Race, counting only points from 2011, and he's just one good tournament from getting himself into the top 10. If Cilic gets in the right mindset, look for him in the US summer season, but if he doesn't, we'll have another case of wasted talent.
Honorable Mentions:
- Roland Garros R1, Varvara Lepchenko def. Flavia Pennetta - 63 26 63 - Pennetta didn't look herself and Lepchenko took advantage. This is the second time Pennetta has had a shock first round loss to an American at Roland Garros, and it's a disturbing pattern for the Italian. Believe it or not, Lepchenko is an American who prefers clay. It's probably because she was born and grew up in the Soviet Union, but she's a naturalized citizen and the Americans should be happy to have her. Now there is a guaranteed American woman in R3 because Lepchenko's next opponent is...
- Roland Garros R1, Bethanie Mattek-Sands def. Arantxa Parra Santonja - 26 76 63 - Bethanie was down and out to a clay-court specialist, but her newfound good attitude carried her through. She bided her time and reeled in her errors just in time. I'm not as brave (read: crazy) as Steve Tignor, who has chosen Mattek-Sands to make the semifinals, but winning today was important to consolidating her high ranking. Her true goal should be win enough to get into the top 32 in time for Wimbledon seedings. She's played well there before and ensuring a favorable draw may allow her another good result.
Saturday, May 21, 2011
Monkey off her back - 5/21/2011
Date: 5/21/2011
Result: Brussels F, Caroline Wozniacki def. Peng Shuai, 2-6 6-3 6-3
Why it matters:
- Wozniacki finally has her red clay title. But what does that mean? Pro: she ground down Peng with her consistency and ball movement; con: she got pounded in the first set when Peng was on form. Pro: she's coming in "hot" with a winning streak into a wide-open major; con: she's won four titles the week before a major previously (three times at New Haven before the US Open; once at Eastbourne before Wimbledon) and she's still major-less, so it might not be enough of a boost. Pro: she showed her mental toughness by grinding out some hard matches back to back; con: she played a lot of tennis right before a major, and is probably going to be scheduled for a Monday start at Roland Garros against a feisty and very fit 40-year-old Kimiko Date Krumm, who is no stranger to some big first round upsets at the French. All in all, good for Wozniacki to prove to herself that she can win on clay, but it doesn't change the fact that I think she's at best fourth favorite for the title.
- Peng had a great week regardless, but her fitness really let her down. To be successful on clay, she'll have to figure out how to hit several big shots in succession without getting tired or out of position. She was doubled over after a lot of the long rallies, especially late in the second set through the end of the match. If she wants to take this strong run of form to the next level, especially in the heat of the American summer, she should work on her off-court training for a few weeks post-Wimbledon. But on the grass where points are shorter and the conditions are usually cooler, she should be able to keep things up.
Honorable Mention:
-Dusseldorf F, Philipp Kohlschreiber/Philipp Petzschner def. Juan Ignacio Chela/Maximo Gonzalez - 63 76 - I'm not sure I get why there needs to be a week long World Team Cup other than a free chance to get some guaranteed matches before the French, but with the comparatively long lead-in season for Roland Garros there has been ample opportunity for players to get used to clay courts, wouldn't a round-robin providing guaranteed matches make more sense pre-Wimbledon so players get grass court experience? Nonetheless, for many players, the chance to play for their country is exciting no matter the circumstance, and more so for the Germans, who got to prove their merit in front of their home crowd. Argentina was pumped - check out @picomonaco juan monaco No se cumplio el objetivo que era defender el titulo, pero se llego a la final y estamos orgullosos de jugar para nuestro pais !! - but fell a little short. I have to admit that although a format like this, or Fed Cup, which puts doubles as the last match obviously can then make the doubles obsolete, it is probably preferable because then when the doubles does matter, it is incredibly exciting. This is probably a plus for doubles on the whole.
Result: Brussels F, Caroline Wozniacki def. Peng Shuai, 2-6 6-3 6-3
Why it matters:
- Wozniacki finally has her red clay title. But what does that mean? Pro: she ground down Peng with her consistency and ball movement; con: she got pounded in the first set when Peng was on form. Pro: she's coming in "hot" with a winning streak into a wide-open major; con: she's won four titles the week before a major previously (three times at New Haven before the US Open; once at Eastbourne before Wimbledon) and she's still major-less, so it might not be enough of a boost. Pro: she showed her mental toughness by grinding out some hard matches back to back; con: she played a lot of tennis right before a major, and is probably going to be scheduled for a Monday start at Roland Garros against a feisty and very fit 40-year-old Kimiko Date Krumm, who is no stranger to some big first round upsets at the French. All in all, good for Wozniacki to prove to herself that she can win on clay, but it doesn't change the fact that I think she's at best fourth favorite for the title.
- Peng had a great week regardless, but her fitness really let her down. To be successful on clay, she'll have to figure out how to hit several big shots in succession without getting tired or out of position. She was doubled over after a lot of the long rallies, especially late in the second set through the end of the match. If she wants to take this strong run of form to the next level, especially in the heat of the American summer, she should work on her off-court training for a few weeks post-Wimbledon. But on the grass where points are shorter and the conditions are usually cooler, she should be able to keep things up.
Honorable Mention:
-Dusseldorf F, Philipp Kohlschreiber/Philipp Petzschner def. Juan Ignacio Chela/Maximo Gonzalez - 63 76 - I'm not sure I get why there needs to be a week long World Team Cup other than a free chance to get some guaranteed matches before the French, but with the comparatively long lead-in season for Roland Garros there has been ample opportunity for players to get used to clay courts, wouldn't a round-robin providing guaranteed matches make more sense pre-Wimbledon so players get grass court experience? Nonetheless, for many players, the chance to play for their country is exciting no matter the circumstance, and more so for the Germans, who got to prove their merit in front of their home crowd. Argentina was pumped - check out @picomonaco juan monaco No se cumplio el objetivo que era defender el titulo, pero se llego a la final y estamos orgullosos de jugar para nuestro pais !! - but fell a little short. I have to admit that although a format like this, or Fed Cup, which puts doubles as the last match obviously can then make the doubles obsolete, it is probably preferable because then when the doubles does matter, it is incredibly exciting. This is probably a plus for doubles on the whole.
An American in Paris - 5/20/2011
Date: 5/20/2011
Result: Roland Garros Qualifying Final Round, Sloane Stephens def. Anastasia Pivovarova, 6-3 6-4
Why it matters:
- Is Stephens for real? It certainly seems like it after plowing through the qualifying draw, including beating the top seed in Pivovarova. Away from home she's blossomed and gained critical experience that players often miss out of by getting too many home wildcards. By grinding out tough wins in qualifying, not only do you get used to conditions at the event, which may help in the next round, but you build confidence from a three match win streak. She has a winnable match against Baltacha in the first round of the main draw, as Baltacha withdrew from Strasbourg this week and may not be in the physical condition to grind out a win against the youngster. Maybe there is an American story to watch for after all at this year's French Open.
- Pivovarova has to be disappointed. Because the entry list for the French Open is based on rankings from six weeks prior, there are usually some shakeups right around the cut-off point during the next few weeks before the event. If the current ranking list was utilized by Roland Garros to grant direct entry into the draw, Pivovarova would've been directly in, however, she had to settle as top seed in qualifying. Such a slim margin cost her a great opportunity to make a run in Paris. She now has the slightly "evil" task of sitting in her hotel for a day or two and pray someone has to withdraw, so she might get into the tournament as a lucky loser. And if so, will she be able to make the most of it?
Honorable Mentions:
- Roland Garros Qualifying Final Round, Javier Marti def. Ryan Harrison - 62 76 - Opposite story for Harrison, who opted to play the official qualifying event rather than attempt to get the USTA Wildcard to the French Open, was unable to pull off the feat. Still, as mentioned above, a good experience for Harrison, whose attacking style might not be best suited for the clay courts. If he plays smart tennis, he'll have a much better crack at making some impact at Wimbledon. But it can't be pleasing to lose to another young player who has only played (and lost) one match at tour level in his career. Marti will get his second chance at the elite level (and first match at a major) against countryman Albert Ramos - which might just be winnable.
- Brussels SF, Peng Shuai def. Vera Zvonareva - 63 63 - Hats off to Peng, who just keeps winning no matter the surface. She really bullied Zvonareva around the court and dictated. For as consistent as Zvonareva is (and Wozniacki, too), clay is about smart aggression more than pure patience these days. Zvonareva will have to remember how to take the initiative if she wants to make a big impact in Paris.
Result: Roland Garros Qualifying Final Round, Sloane Stephens def. Anastasia Pivovarova, 6-3 6-4
Why it matters:
- Is Stephens for real? It certainly seems like it after plowing through the qualifying draw, including beating the top seed in Pivovarova. Away from home she's blossomed and gained critical experience that players often miss out of by getting too many home wildcards. By grinding out tough wins in qualifying, not only do you get used to conditions at the event, which may help in the next round, but you build confidence from a three match win streak. She has a winnable match against Baltacha in the first round of the main draw, as Baltacha withdrew from Strasbourg this week and may not be in the physical condition to grind out a win against the youngster. Maybe there is an American story to watch for after all at this year's French Open.
- Pivovarova has to be disappointed. Because the entry list for the French Open is based on rankings from six weeks prior, there are usually some shakeups right around the cut-off point during the next few weeks before the event. If the current ranking list was utilized by Roland Garros to grant direct entry into the draw, Pivovarova would've been directly in, however, she had to settle as top seed in qualifying. Such a slim margin cost her a great opportunity to make a run in Paris. She now has the slightly "evil" task of sitting in her hotel for a day or two and pray someone has to withdraw, so she might get into the tournament as a lucky loser. And if so, will she be able to make the most of it?
Honorable Mentions:
- Roland Garros Qualifying Final Round, Javier Marti def. Ryan Harrison - 62 76 - Opposite story for Harrison, who opted to play the official qualifying event rather than attempt to get the USTA Wildcard to the French Open, was unable to pull off the feat. Still, as mentioned above, a good experience for Harrison, whose attacking style might not be best suited for the clay courts. If he plays smart tennis, he'll have a much better crack at making some impact at Wimbledon. But it can't be pleasing to lose to another young player who has only played (and lost) one match at tour level in his career. Marti will get his second chance at the elite level (and first match at a major) against countryman Albert Ramos - which might just be winnable.
- Brussels SF, Peng Shuai def. Vera Zvonareva - 63 63 - Hats off to Peng, who just keeps winning no matter the surface. She really bullied Zvonareva around the court and dictated. For as consistent as Zvonareva is (and Wozniacki, too), clay is about smart aggression more than pure patience these days. Zvonareva will have to remember how to take the initiative if she wants to make a big impact in Paris.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
A good result for both players? - 5/19/2011
Date: 5/19/2011
Result: Nice QF, Alexandr Dolgopolov def. David Ferrer, 6-4 1-6 7-5
Why it matters:
Honorable Mentions:
- Brussels QF, Vera Zvonareva def. Alexandra Dulgheru - 60 61 - This was laughable. Zvonareva just dominated from start to finish and Dulgheru looked a mess. Zvonareva could use an injection of confidence, but winning against weak competition might not do the trick. Fortunately for her, the field in Brussels is strong, so she'll likely get at least one tough match before beginning her campaign in Paris. Dulgheru must want to strangle whoever ultimately pulled Warsaw (see her career titles) from the calendar in favor of Brussels.
- Strasbourg QF, Marion Bartoli def. Lucie Hradecka - 62 63 - Well done for Bartoli who has been at her worst on clay this year to beat someone who has been at her best on everything this year. Bartoli has always been an outcast, so performing well in front of her home fans has to feel good, but doing well in Paris would mean a LOT more than a good run in Strasbourg.
Result: Nice QF, Alexandr Dolgopolov def. David Ferrer, 6-4 1-6 7-5
Why it matters:
- Dolgopolov needed to prove that he's a threat again. His recent string of losses, having not won a set let alone a match since Miami in March, prior to Nice were embarrassing for someone included as part of the "next generation", and also sent him back below .500 for his career. A good performance here, even if it's a smaller event, can put him back in the right frame of mind for the French. He had a decent QF run in Sydney the week before the Australian where he made it to the Quarterfinals also. He'll be seeded, so the top guys will be able to avoid him for awhile, but there are many preferable opponents than Dolgopolov people will want to see in their section of tomorrow's French Open draw.
- Ferrer is such a fighter that I'm sure he'll never see a positive out of a loss. But this was a good week. He got to get two matches in since his sickness in Rome, including a nice win and a gritty fight today against a good player which tested his fitness. Given Ferrer's form in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, and even Madrid, (not to mention Acapulco in February) he's done enough to feel great about his chances in Paris. If he didn't miss Rome I would've been very against Ferrer playing here - he needs to peak at the right time - and I was concerned about him playing to the end of the week as well. By losing here, he can get used to the conditions in the capital and ready to fight soon. He, too, should have his fingers crossed for the draw tomorrow. Avoiding Nadal and Djokovic could mean a second consecutive semifinal of a major for David.Honorable Mentions:
- Brussels QF, Vera Zvonareva def. Alexandra Dulgheru - 60 61 - This was laughable. Zvonareva just dominated from start to finish and Dulgheru looked a mess. Zvonareva could use an injection of confidence, but winning against weak competition might not do the trick. Fortunately for her, the field in Brussels is strong, so she'll likely get at least one tough match before beginning her campaign in Paris. Dulgheru must want to strangle whoever ultimately pulled Warsaw (see her career titles) from the calendar in favor of Brussels.
- Strasbourg QF, Marion Bartoli def. Lucie Hradecka - 62 63 - Well done for Bartoli who has been at her worst on clay this year to beat someone who has been at her best on everything this year. Bartoli has always been an outcast, so performing well in front of her home fans has to feel good, but doing well in Paris would mean a LOT more than a good run in Strasbourg.
The joy of Qualifying - 5/18/2011
Date: 5/18/2011
Result: Roland Garros R1 Qualifying, Heather Watson def. Ioana Raluca Olaru, 6-3 6-0
Why it matters:
- Just a general comment that the qualifying for the majors is really awesome. Qualifying is pretty cool anyway, because it's great to think that you can have just one golden week and put yourself into a major tournament by winning a few matches - against your usual competition, no less, it's not like really top players are ever in the qualies (usually) - and if you do so you could be on one of the most famous courts in the world against a top player within a few days. So the desire is super high for the players, which can make for great drama. Most events allow free entrance to watch qualifying days, so if you're ever able to go watch,you definitely should.
- To this match specifically, Watson is a Brit hopeful who doesn't play a game that should be clay friendly, but she's just improving day by day and has a tremendous attitude. By beating a clay-courter like Olaru, who although nowhere near her career high of 53 is certainly more experienced, Watson is showing her maturity. I'm not sure we should expect her to qualify in Paris, but picking up even qualifying experience points at a major can only help her come Wimbledon, where the home crowd would go wild for if she could even win a round.
Honorable Mentions:
- Nice R2, Nicolas Almagro def. Carlos Berlocq - 67 64 63 - Almagro's top ten stint seems dubious following his recent string of results. Unable to put up a big win, he's also had some strange losses. And although he pulled out today's match, losing a set to Berlocq isn't confidence building. One assumes Almagro played another clay event this week to pad his ranking and be in the best possible form in time for Paris. It doesn't look like either will happen if he plays like he did today.
- Brussels R2, Caroline Wozniacki def. Varvara Lepchenko - 64 76 - A messy match for the World #1. She's looking more and more like a second tier favorite for the French as players who go for it can trouble Wozniacki each and every time. Moreover, her resiliency to bounce back when she loses seems to be less effective. I think that eventually her gamestyle will yield a major title, assuming she keeps up her level for awhile, but it's hard for any player to be patient, especially when the media keeps annoying her. I think she's finally hit her saturation point. But unfortunately for her, it just doesn't seem like the French or Wimbledon will be her tournaments. We'll see if she can keep it together long enough. Lepchenko pushed but just isn't at the level to close out Wozniacki.
Result: Roland Garros R1 Qualifying, Heather Watson def. Ioana Raluca Olaru, 6-3 6-0
Why it matters:
- Just a general comment that the qualifying for the majors is really awesome. Qualifying is pretty cool anyway, because it's great to think that you can have just one golden week and put yourself into a major tournament by winning a few matches - against your usual competition, no less, it's not like really top players are ever in the qualies (usually) - and if you do so you could be on one of the most famous courts in the world against a top player within a few days. So the desire is super high for the players, which can make for great drama. Most events allow free entrance to watch qualifying days, so if you're ever able to go watch,you definitely should.
- To this match specifically, Watson is a Brit hopeful who doesn't play a game that should be clay friendly, but she's just improving day by day and has a tremendous attitude. By beating a clay-courter like Olaru, who although nowhere near her career high of 53 is certainly more experienced, Watson is showing her maturity. I'm not sure we should expect her to qualify in Paris, but picking up even qualifying experience points at a major can only help her come Wimbledon, where the home crowd would go wild for if she could even win a round.
Honorable Mentions:
- Nice R2, Nicolas Almagro def. Carlos Berlocq - 67 64 63 - Almagro's top ten stint seems dubious following his recent string of results. Unable to put up a big win, he's also had some strange losses. And although he pulled out today's match, losing a set to Berlocq isn't confidence building. One assumes Almagro played another clay event this week to pad his ranking and be in the best possible form in time for Paris. It doesn't look like either will happen if he plays like he did today.
- Brussels R2, Caroline Wozniacki def. Varvara Lepchenko - 64 76 - A messy match for the World #1. She's looking more and more like a second tier favorite for the French as players who go for it can trouble Wozniacki each and every time. Moreover, her resiliency to bounce back when she loses seems to be less effective. I think that eventually her gamestyle will yield a major title, assuming she keeps up her level for awhile, but it's hard for any player to be patient, especially when the media keeps annoying her. I think she's finally hit her saturation point. But unfortunately for her, it just doesn't seem like the French or Wimbledon will be her tournaments. We'll see if she can keep it together long enough. Lepchenko pushed but just isn't at the level to close out Wozniacki.
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
How challenger tournaments prep players for the tour - 5/17/2011
Date: 5/17/2011
Result: Brussels R1, Alison van Uytvanck def. Patty Schnyder, 6-3 2-6 6-2
Why it matters:
- Van Uytvanck is having an incredible year. Ok, so it's on the 10K futures circuit (with a 25K mixed in), but she's only got one loss this year - to former top 15er Anna-Lena Groenefeld - and she follows it up with a win over the crafty veteran on home soil. She has to know that the crowd support she's getting in Belgium won't always be there, but she should count her blessings that her first tour level win is not just at a WTA level event where she's having this great support, but a Premier level event, meaning extra prize money and extra ranking points. She's still young and probably will prioritize juniors for awhile, but van Uytvanck has a promising future ahead of her, and with role models like Clijsters and Henin, maybe a lot of ambition as well.
- I highlighted Schnyder back in my first match analysis, and a lot of the same applies. Her motivation seems low and she's just going through the motions. A player with her experience and success probably just hits the wall at the end, but it's getting sad. I'm sure Schnyder probably wants to see the year out and do a final tour, but that kind of tour is pointless if either (a) she's not competitive due to lack of motivation or (b) she's not competitive due to deterioration of skills. I doubt it's the latter given her craftiness, so let's hope Schnyder figures out how to push it for a few more months before she's ready to call it quits once and for all.
Honorable Mentions:
- Dusseldorf RR, Mikhail Kukushkin def. Sam Querrey - 36 75 75 - See yesterday's post. Only it's worse because Kukushkin is no Soderling even when he's on, and he's been VERY off this year. Enough said.
- Dusseldorf RR, Dusan Lajovic def. Igor Andreev - 16 76 64 - Lajovic has been winning a lot of matches this year, but like van Uytvanck, most on the lowest level. But now he, too, can chalk up his first tour level victory against a very solid clay court player in Andreev. And more impressively, he won coming back from a horrid first set. Andreev's been amiss this year though, but he always seems to get inspired at the French, so hopefully for his sake this won't stunt his progress. But the most important question, is what did Tipsarevic have to do with this win? "You can call me Mourinho... Lajovic vs. Andreev 1/6 7/6 6/4" -@TipsarevicJanko
Result: Brussels R1, Alison van Uytvanck def. Patty Schnyder, 6-3 2-6 6-2
Why it matters:
- Van Uytvanck is having an incredible year. Ok, so it's on the 10K futures circuit (with a 25K mixed in), but she's only got one loss this year - to former top 15er Anna-Lena Groenefeld - and she follows it up with a win over the crafty veteran on home soil. She has to know that the crowd support she's getting in Belgium won't always be there, but she should count her blessings that her first tour level win is not just at a WTA level event where she's having this great support, but a Premier level event, meaning extra prize money and extra ranking points. She's still young and probably will prioritize juniors for awhile, but van Uytvanck has a promising future ahead of her, and with role models like Clijsters and Henin, maybe a lot of ambition as well.
- I highlighted Schnyder back in my first match analysis, and a lot of the same applies. Her motivation seems low and she's just going through the motions. A player with her experience and success probably just hits the wall at the end, but it's getting sad. I'm sure Schnyder probably wants to see the year out and do a final tour, but that kind of tour is pointless if either (a) she's not competitive due to lack of motivation or (b) she's not competitive due to deterioration of skills. I doubt it's the latter given her craftiness, so let's hope Schnyder figures out how to push it for a few more months before she's ready to call it quits once and for all.
Honorable Mentions:
- Dusseldorf RR, Mikhail Kukushkin def. Sam Querrey - 36 75 75 - See yesterday's post. Only it's worse because Kukushkin is no Soderling even when he's on, and he's been VERY off this year. Enough said.
- Dusseldorf RR, Dusan Lajovic def. Igor Andreev - 16 76 64 - Lajovic has been winning a lot of matches this year, but like van Uytvanck, most on the lowest level. But now he, too, can chalk up his first tour level victory against a very solid clay court player in Andreev. And more impressively, he won coming back from a horrid first set. Andreev's been amiss this year though, but he always seems to get inspired at the French, so hopefully for his sake this won't stunt his progress. But the most important question, is what did Tipsarevic have to do with this win? "You can call me Mourinho... Lajovic vs. Andreev 1/6 7/6 6/4" -@TipsarevicJanko
Round Robin - 5/17/2011
Date: 5/16/2011
Result: Dusseldorf RR, Robin Soderling def. Sam Querrey, 5-7 7-5 7-6
Why it matters:
- Querrey blows it again. Sam led a set and a break and let it slip. I don't care that it was on his worst surface and Soderling's probably best, and I don't care that Soderling is just outright better. Querrey had the match in his pocket and he didn't win it. The mid-ranked players HAVE to close these types of matches if they ever want to make positive moves into the highest echelon, and Querrey has repeatedly shown that he can't do it. Querrey should be bitterly disappointed, but he lucks out in a way. Because this event is round robin, he'll get a chance to wash away that memory with a win before heading to Paris. He'll need it if he wants to also end his disappointed runs in the majors.
- It's good to see Robin put up such a big fight in a pretty low key match. Down big time he came back when he really didn't need to. But Robin's not at his most confident right now with the coaching carousel turning in his life, so any win is bound to do him some good. The sight of Paris will give him confidence, as mentioned a few days ago, but if he's already moving in the right direction this week, then it can only make things go even more smoothly at the French.
Honorable Mention:
- Brussels R1, Casey Dellacqua def. Shahar Peer - 61 57 63 - Peer is really dipping in form. Her great play in 2010 seems a distant memory. With her clay results shockingly poor and no great history on grass, the bad patch doesn't seem likely to end soon. For Dellacqua, her fighting attitude looks like it's back, but it might be too little too late. If she wants to make a push back into the mix for good, the time is now.
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Result: Dusseldorf RR, Robin Soderling def. Sam Querrey, 5-7 7-5 7-6
Why it matters:
- Querrey blows it again. Sam led a set and a break and let it slip. I don't care that it was on his worst surface and Soderling's probably best, and I don't care that Soderling is just outright better. Querrey had the match in his pocket and he didn't win it. The mid-ranked players HAVE to close these types of matches if they ever want to make positive moves into the highest echelon, and Querrey has repeatedly shown that he can't do it. Querrey should be bitterly disappointed, but he lucks out in a way. Because this event is round robin, he'll get a chance to wash away that memory with a win before heading to Paris. He'll need it if he wants to also end his disappointed runs in the majors.
- It's good to see Robin put up such a big fight in a pretty low key match. Down big time he came back when he really didn't need to. But Robin's not at his most confident right now with the coaching carousel turning in his life, so any win is bound to do him some good. The sight of Paris will give him confidence, as mentioned a few days ago, but if he's already moving in the right direction this week, then it can only make things go even more smoothly at the French.
Honorable Mention:
- Brussels R1, Casey Dellacqua def. Shahar Peer - 61 57 63 - Peer is really dipping in form. Her great play in 2010 seems a distant memory. With her clay results shockingly poor and no great history on grass, the bad patch doesn't seem likely to end soon. For Dellacqua, her fighting attitude looks like it's back, but it might be too little too late. If she wants to make a push back into the mix for good, the time is now.
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Monday, May 16, 2011
Bravo Nole - 5/15/2011
Date: 5/15/2011
Result: Rome F, Novak Djokovic def. Rafael Nadal, 6-4 6-4
Why it matters:
- The most interesting thing is how different this match looked to the match in Madrid and how the result was so strikingly similar. In Madrid, serves won plenty of points outright (though there were plenty of breaks), Djokovic dictated essentially every point, and the rallies were comparatively straightforward. In Rome, serves looked completely ineffective, Djokovic and Nadal had a tug-of-war over who could dictate (and plenty of rallies were completely neutral until the very end), and the angles and changes in direction with every shot made for extremely unpredictable rallies. But, in the end, Djokovic had a little too much on average, and he took it in a tight two sets.
- What does this mean for the French coming up? Djokovic has won on two different kinds of clay courts against Nadal, so there's no reason he can't win against Rafa in Paris, too. But I think the fatigue factor might be more in play for Novak in Paris. He's been playing great, that's obvious, but sets have gotten away from him in Madrid and Rome, and he needs to conserve that extra energy in Paris where the matches will be longer anyway. But there's no match for pure desire, and that's what's driving Djokovic at the moment. Nadal is still the favorite, slightly, but assuming Djokovic doesn't realize what he's been doing is absolutely insane and suddenly feel the pressure, Djokovic's got an amazing chance. Although the all-time win streak coincides with his winning the title, he can cinch up the #1 ranking with just an appearance in the final, so for Novak, at least that won't be at stake should he be around in Paris on Sunday.
Honorable Mentions:
- Rome F, Maria Sharapova def. Sam Stosur - 62 64 - When you own someone, you own someone. And Sharapova just matches up well with Stosur. For Stosur, it's another worrying dud of a performance in a clay court final. She plays so admirably to get there and then comes out flat. Sharapova is the bigger story, though. She gets a big title back in her possession, and it's on clay. The confidence has got to be at a high right now and as crazy as it would've sounded following her loss to Petkovic in Melbourne, she seems ready to win another major. Maybe not in Paris, but then again...
- Prague Challenger F, Magdalena Rybarikova def. Petra Kvitova - 63 64 - I warned that Kvitova probably made an error playing at home, though I understood the impulse. Rybarikova has talent, but that's beside the point. Kvitova's a top tenner now, and any loss in a challenger is bad on the resume. I don't think this will affect her mentally come the French, but I think it highlights how inconsistent her results can be. So don't be too surprised to see Kvitova holding the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen in a few weeks, but don't be too surprised to see her out in R1 either.
Result: Rome F, Novak Djokovic def. Rafael Nadal, 6-4 6-4
Why it matters:
- The most interesting thing is how different this match looked to the match in Madrid and how the result was so strikingly similar. In Madrid, serves won plenty of points outright (though there were plenty of breaks), Djokovic dictated essentially every point, and the rallies were comparatively straightforward. In Rome, serves looked completely ineffective, Djokovic and Nadal had a tug-of-war over who could dictate (and plenty of rallies were completely neutral until the very end), and the angles and changes in direction with every shot made for extremely unpredictable rallies. But, in the end, Djokovic had a little too much on average, and he took it in a tight two sets.
- What does this mean for the French coming up? Djokovic has won on two different kinds of clay courts against Nadal, so there's no reason he can't win against Rafa in Paris, too. But I think the fatigue factor might be more in play for Novak in Paris. He's been playing great, that's obvious, but sets have gotten away from him in Madrid and Rome, and he needs to conserve that extra energy in Paris where the matches will be longer anyway. But there's no match for pure desire, and that's what's driving Djokovic at the moment. Nadal is still the favorite, slightly, but assuming Djokovic doesn't realize what he's been doing is absolutely insane and suddenly feel the pressure, Djokovic's got an amazing chance. Although the all-time win streak coincides with his winning the title, he can cinch up the #1 ranking with just an appearance in the final, so for Novak, at least that won't be at stake should he be around in Paris on Sunday.
Honorable Mentions:
- Rome F, Maria Sharapova def. Sam Stosur - 62 64 - When you own someone, you own someone. And Sharapova just matches up well with Stosur. For Stosur, it's another worrying dud of a performance in a clay court final. She plays so admirably to get there and then comes out flat. Sharapova is the bigger story, though. She gets a big title back in her possession, and it's on clay. The confidence has got to be at a high right now and as crazy as it would've sounded following her loss to Petkovic in Melbourne, she seems ready to win another major. Maybe not in Paris, but then again...
- Prague Challenger F, Magdalena Rybarikova def. Petra Kvitova - 63 64 - I warned that Kvitova probably made an error playing at home, though I understood the impulse. Rybarikova has talent, but that's beside the point. Kvitova's a top tenner now, and any loss in a challenger is bad on the resume. I don't think this will affect her mentally come the French, but I think it highlights how inconsistent her results can be. So don't be too surprised to see Kvitova holding the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen in a few weeks, but don't be too surprised to see her out in R1 either.
Sunday, May 15, 2011
Another great rivalry - 5/14/2011
Date: 5/14/2011
Result: Rome SF, Novak Djokovic def. Andy Murray, 6-1 3-6 7-6
Why it matters:
- What a match! Just when it seemed like another Djokovic blowout was on the cards, Murray's serve picked up incredibly and made life difficult for Djokovic. Additionally, Murray's ability to grind out long rallies and patience was impressive. But confidence is key - when Murray had the chance to close out Djokovic, his serve deserted him and he collapsed completely once Djokovic edged out in front in the tiebreak. Conversely, Djokovic looked completely on the ropes, physically spent and as if some sort of leg muscle problem might take him out for good. But the confidence factor carried him to another victory.
- The rallies were insanely long, the quality of tennis was incredibly high, and it was just a pleasure to watch. Those who market tennis that aren't promoting the idea that Murray-Djokovic, Nadal-Murray, and Nadal-Djokovic are all rivalries that can produce as compelling a level of tennis as Nadal-Federer are doing an incredible disservice to the game. I'm not discounting the greatness of Nadal-Federer - many of their matches are all-time classics, including of course their 2008 Wimbledon Final - but their Miami match, and frankly the quality of their Madrid match, this year seem to indicate that the luster is gone from that rivalry. So these matches need to be given big billing now so the average tennis fan knows where to look for some high-quality stuff. I guess the fear is that for every amazing match between these two, there is an Australian Open Final dud. But away from the high-pressure Grand Slams, Murray's been able to press Nadal and Djokovic (and Federer, for that matter) as well as anyone, including the top three themselves. So talk these guys up, (American) media! Tennis can be popular again with this young cast of characters, but not if nostalgia for Federer's best tennis or desire for American champions dominates the conversation.
Honorable Mentions:
- Rome SF, Maria Sharapova def. Caroline Wozniacki - 75 63 - Sharapova is back to World #1 beating ways, and who would've expected it to happen on clay? Especially after the beatdown Wozniacki inflicted on Maria in Indian Wells. But as I've said recently, Wozniacki is not as great on clay as it seems like she should be. And Sharapova has been better on clay recently than she's given credit for in the media. She may have once been a "cow on ice", but now, although she's not perfect, she's learned to be effective enough with her movement that she can be a better defender on clay than on hard by taking advantage of the slower speed of the court. Sharapova might just be gaining confidence in her relationship with new coach Hogstedt.
Result: Rome SF, Novak Djokovic def. Andy Murray, 6-1 3-6 7-6
Why it matters:
- What a match! Just when it seemed like another Djokovic blowout was on the cards, Murray's serve picked up incredibly and made life difficult for Djokovic. Additionally, Murray's ability to grind out long rallies and patience was impressive. But confidence is key - when Murray had the chance to close out Djokovic, his serve deserted him and he collapsed completely once Djokovic edged out in front in the tiebreak. Conversely, Djokovic looked completely on the ropes, physically spent and as if some sort of leg muscle problem might take him out for good. But the confidence factor carried him to another victory.
- The rallies were insanely long, the quality of tennis was incredibly high, and it was just a pleasure to watch. Those who market tennis that aren't promoting the idea that Murray-Djokovic, Nadal-Murray, and Nadal-Djokovic are all rivalries that can produce as compelling a level of tennis as Nadal-Federer are doing an incredible disservice to the game. I'm not discounting the greatness of Nadal-Federer - many of their matches are all-time classics, including of course their 2008 Wimbledon Final - but their Miami match, and frankly the quality of their Madrid match, this year seem to indicate that the luster is gone from that rivalry. So these matches need to be given big billing now so the average tennis fan knows where to look for some high-quality stuff. I guess the fear is that for every amazing match between these two, there is an Australian Open Final dud. But away from the high-pressure Grand Slams, Murray's been able to press Nadal and Djokovic (and Federer, for that matter) as well as anyone, including the top three themselves. So talk these guys up, (American) media! Tennis can be popular again with this young cast of characters, but not if nostalgia for Federer's best tennis or desire for American champions dominates the conversation.
Honorable Mentions:
- Rome SF, Maria Sharapova def. Caroline Wozniacki - 75 63 - Sharapova is back to World #1 beating ways, and who would've expected it to happen on clay? Especially after the beatdown Wozniacki inflicted on Maria in Indian Wells. But as I've said recently, Wozniacki is not as great on clay as it seems like she should be. And Sharapova has been better on clay recently than she's given credit for in the media. She may have once been a "cow on ice", but now, although she's not perfect, she's learned to be effective enough with her movement that she can be a better defender on clay than on hard by taking advantage of the slower speed of the court. Sharapova might just be gaining confidence in her relationship with new coach Hogstedt.
Saturday, May 14, 2011
Is Djokovic still improving? - 5/13/2011
Date: 5/13/2011
Result: Rome QF, Novak Djokovic def. Robin Soderling, 6-3 6-0
Why it matters:
- This didn't end the way it began, surely. Soderling just blew Djokovic off the court in the first game and it looked like Robin was going to have one of those days where he just didn't miss. But Novak didn't lose his cool, made adjustments, and broke back immediately. And once he put himself in the lead, he didn't look back. This was the first real beatdown Novak's put on a top player. He's been bageling players all year, but against Murray, Rafa, and Roger, he's had a few routine wins, but nothing that was this complete. It doesn't seem possible that Djokovic is still improving, but it might be the case.
- For Soderling, he's just another victim. But the truth is that for as great a player as he's been the last few years, especially at the French, Paris is really the special place for him and his results the other weeks of the year aren't consistently amazing, including on the clay that seems to suit him so well. Paris is different somehow - Soderling just brings his best. So no worries yet, Soderling fans. I still expect him to at least live up to his seeding in Paris. And if he ends up in Novak's quarter and things look bleak given this match, remember what Nadal did to Soderling in Rome just before the Swede took out the king of clay in Paris.
Honorable Mentions:
- Rome QF, Sam Stosur def. Francesca Schiavone - 62 64 - That's what we were expecting last year in the French final. Stosur comprehensively overpowered Schiavone, leaving the Italian with almost no possible plan B to counter the tide. Stosur's depth and power prevented Schiavone from mixing it up or attacking the net. She could only defend the whole time. It's just further proof that when you get in the pressure-filled situation of a Grand Slam final, anything can happen. If Stosur can keep this form up, look for her the final weekend in Paris once again.
- Rome QF, Maria Sharapova def. Victoria Azarenka - 46 30 ret. - Azarenka must be thinking "not again"; really, he was on the court PLEADING with herself as if she had a choice whether or not she could finish. She couldn't even hit a real shot. That's really frustrating, but wouldn't you rather have it in Rome than in Paris? It wasn't clear how severe this is, but perhaps Azarenka will be back and ready in time for the French. Sharapova should use the momentum. She'll get her crack at Wozniacki, but more imporantly, she's cemented herself in the top 8 for seeding purposes in Paris. That should finally help her make a deep run either in Paris or Wimbledon after tough draws last year.
Result: Rome QF, Novak Djokovic def. Robin Soderling, 6-3 6-0
Why it matters:
- This didn't end the way it began, surely. Soderling just blew Djokovic off the court in the first game and it looked like Robin was going to have one of those days where he just didn't miss. But Novak didn't lose his cool, made adjustments, and broke back immediately. And once he put himself in the lead, he didn't look back. This was the first real beatdown Novak's put on a top player. He's been bageling players all year, but against Murray, Rafa, and Roger, he's had a few routine wins, but nothing that was this complete. It doesn't seem possible that Djokovic is still improving, but it might be the case.
- For Soderling, he's just another victim. But the truth is that for as great a player as he's been the last few years, especially at the French, Paris is really the special place for him and his results the other weeks of the year aren't consistently amazing, including on the clay that seems to suit him so well. Paris is different somehow - Soderling just brings his best. So no worries yet, Soderling fans. I still expect him to at least live up to his seeding in Paris. And if he ends up in Novak's quarter and things look bleak given this match, remember what Nadal did to Soderling in Rome just before the Swede took out the king of clay in Paris.
Honorable Mentions:
- Rome QF, Sam Stosur def. Francesca Schiavone - 62 64 - That's what we were expecting last year in the French final. Stosur comprehensively overpowered Schiavone, leaving the Italian with almost no possible plan B to counter the tide. Stosur's depth and power prevented Schiavone from mixing it up or attacking the net. She could only defend the whole time. It's just further proof that when you get in the pressure-filled situation of a Grand Slam final, anything can happen. If Stosur can keep this form up, look for her the final weekend in Paris once again.
- Rome QF, Maria Sharapova def. Victoria Azarenka - 46 30 ret. - Azarenka must be thinking "not again"; really, he was on the court PLEADING with herself as if she had a choice whether or not she could finish. She couldn't even hit a real shot. That's really frustrating, but wouldn't you rather have it in Rome than in Paris? It wasn't clear how severe this is, but perhaps Azarenka will be back and ready in time for the French. Sharapova should use the momentum. She'll get her crack at Wozniacki, but more imporantly, she's cemented herself in the top 8 for seeding purposes in Paris. That should finally help her make a deep run either in Paris or Wimbledon after tough draws last year.
Friday, May 13, 2011
If only this happened in France... - 5/12/2011
Date: 5/12/2011
Result: Rome R3, Richard Gasquet def. Roger Federer
Why it matters:
- This is so much more about Gasquet than Federer (though we’ll talk about him soon). Richard has the talent to be a top 5 player and maybe higher. He just has never come close to having the mentality. His previous win over Federer was so impressive at the time, but it has become evident that Gasquet just didn’t know pressure at that point. The minute expectation came into the equation, Gasquet became a shadow of who he could’ve or should’ve been. But fortunately he’s young and maybe still has time to be that special player. The biggest test will come in Paris in two weeks, where he has always crumbled. This win is a big step, but it happened in Rome, not France. I’m not saying Gasquet needs to win the title at Roland Garros, but making a run and putting at least one big win on the board could be a springboard towards another top 10 run.
- I refuse to sound like a broken record about Federer’s losses, and I don’t think I would’ve made this the featured match if it wasn’t for the Gasquet factor. But, Federer just isn’t going to win consistently anymore and he’s got to stop making silly excuses and strange soundbytes that make him seem delusional about the state of play. He ruled the game either as a clear #1 or close 2nd to Nadal for 7 years. That’s remarkable. So his attitude about these losses and insistence that he’s essentially the same as he ever was just sounds sad. Federer can continue to be a great champion even if he’s not winning very often, but he won’t be one if he refuses to accept his losses for what they are.
Honorable Mentions:
- Rome R3, Francesca Schiavone def. Daniela Hantuchova – 36 62 75 – Schiavone really wanted this. She wasn’t playing her best and Hantuchova was playing some of her best clay court tennis and hitting her spots. But a long 11.5 months after becoming a massive superstar in her country by winning Roland Garros, she has the chance to perform in front of her own crowd and seems determined to make the most of it. Fortunately for Schiavone, the flair and passion she plays with is stereotypically part of the Italian personality, so the Roman crowd roared with an equal flair and passion to carry Schiavone through. If Schiavone and the crowd can keep this symbiotic relationship going, it may take the Italian already to the title.
-Rome R3, Maria Sharapova def. Shahar Peer – 62 62 – Sharapova just owns Peer. Their H2H is completely one-sided, and Sharapova proved it wasn’t a fluke. Sharapova seems to be able to play a great match on any given day, but it’s the consistency of wins that is so hard to come by. The way she’s begun in Rome, though, makes one wonder if Sharapova is ready to reclaim her spot at the top of the game. Peer lost to a more talented player, but her ability to grind out wins has been shockingly absent this year. She’ll need to find that ability if she’s going to make a run at either Grand Slam coming soon.
Becoming the Belgian threat - 5/11/2011
Apologies that this is late! Blogger was doing maintenance last night… enjoy!
Date: 5/11/2011
Result: Rome R2, Yanina Wickmayer def. Ana Ivanovic, 2-6 7-6 6-3
Why it matters:
- Wickmayer needed a win like this. She ground down Li Na back in February, but doesn't have a signature win this year. That's not to say she had any bad losses, either, but for someone as talented as Wickmayer, who looked like she was ready to take the tour by storm in the 2009 US Open. And with Henin gone and Clijsters ready to hit the sidelines again for good, it's Wickmayer's time to step-up. Ivanovic isn't as big of a win as she used to be, but the fight that Wickmayer showed in scraping back from the brink was the impressive part of this match. Ivanovic rolled through the first and looked ready to close, but Wickmayer played smartly aggressive tennis in the tiebreak to take the pressure off. This may be a one off with Wozniacki being Wickmayer's next opponent, but look for Yanina to really put her stamp on the hardcourt season this summer.
- This wouldn't be a terrible loss for Ivanovic if you didn't look at the score. Losing to Wickmayer is completely acceptable, but not when Ivanovic was dominating. That makes two weeks in a row where she played a great first set and couldn't close. This is becoming a disturbing pattern. Frankly, Ivanovic didn't look nervous or really collapse this one away, she just didn't raise her level at the critical points when she needed to perform like a champion. Ivanovic will need to remember how to think and perform like a champion and not rely purely on talent if she wants to make the next push back into the top 10.
Honorable Mentions:
- Rome R2, Rafael Nadal def. Paolo Lorenzi - 67 64 60 - I just don't think this was as big a deal as everyone else. So Rafa lost a set, big whoop. He looked a mess for most of the first two sets, and STILL WON. It's obvious he's upset about the Madrid loss, came from playing 5 matches in different conditions with this bad mindset, and was flat for the first hour of the match. Then, when he realized his position, he shook things off and closed it out in style. It doesn't mean Nadal is done and doesn't mean anything for his prospects either this week or in Paris. What it does mean is that Novak is concerning to him. And if we've learned anything from the Nadal camp over the past few years, its that they will make changes to Rafa's game that are necessary to beat his biggest rivals - and they aren't afraid to sacrifice warm-up event results to make sure things click at the majors.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Confidence is key - 5/10/2011
Date: 5/10/2011
Result: Rome R2, Robin Soderling def. Fernando Verdasco, 2-6 7-5 6-4
Why it matters:
- What a little bit of confidence could've done for Verdasco today. It looked like he'd found it from somewhere, maybe taking down Raonic in a complete match once and for all was really big for him, when he raced through a near perfect first set and was set up to close out the second. But his incredible collapse at 6-2 5-4 40-0 was truly breathtaking. He just isn't having the follow-up season he wanted after a pretty great 2010 and that has his confidence in the tubes. Unfortunately for Verdasco, he showed the world exactly what can happen to a player who is low in confidence. Where does he go from here? Unfortunately, it's hard to see anywhere other than down. He'll put together a run sometime and maybe turn things around by the end of 2011, but finishing the year in the top 20, at this point, would be an accomplishment.
- Soderling showed why weathering a storm for as long as possible is SUCH a valuable skill. Soderling was playing fine while Verdasco was dominating. He stuck around close to a player who could do no wrong until that player did a lot wrong. By not pressing and playing outside of his capabilities, Soderling saved the match. That's not to say pushing one's self is never the right answer, but he made a smart decision given the circumstances and didn't give Verdasco a bigger lead which would've taken the pressure off.
Honorable Mentions:
- Rome R1, Romina Oprandi def. Kaia Kanepi - 75 36 61 - What have you done for me lately Ms. Kanepi? Without a top 20 win this year, Kanepi feels ridiculously overranked. And with a large chunk of her points coming off at Wimbledon where she tore a hole through the draw in 2010, Kanepi might slide down to her rightful place for the way she's been playing recently. But for all the bad losses she's had this year, Kanepi's got a ton of talent and probably will never find a settling place. She'll keep yo-yoing around. And with all this, it's a good win for Oprandi. She'll be a home-favorite to make a surprising run.
- Rome R1, Paolo Lorenzi def. Thomaz Bellucci - 76 63 - Bellucci doesn't have the experience to back up as intense a week as he had in Madrid with another top-flight result. Lorenzi played well, and has been putting together a solid season for his standards, but it was all about the drop in level by Bellucci compared to when it looked like he might snap Djokovic's streak. Bellucci will bounce back and be a dangerous opponent to whoever has the misfortune of facing him in Paris. And Lorenzi gets to be the national hero for the day, after some disappointing results for his compatriots.
Result: Rome R2, Robin Soderling def. Fernando Verdasco, 2-6 7-5 6-4
Why it matters:
- What a little bit of confidence could've done for Verdasco today. It looked like he'd found it from somewhere, maybe taking down Raonic in a complete match once and for all was really big for him, when he raced through a near perfect first set and was set up to close out the second. But his incredible collapse at 6-2 5-4 40-0 was truly breathtaking. He just isn't having the follow-up season he wanted after a pretty great 2010 and that has his confidence in the tubes. Unfortunately for Verdasco, he showed the world exactly what can happen to a player who is low in confidence. Where does he go from here? Unfortunately, it's hard to see anywhere other than down. He'll put together a run sometime and maybe turn things around by the end of 2011, but finishing the year in the top 20, at this point, would be an accomplishment.
- Soderling showed why weathering a storm for as long as possible is SUCH a valuable skill. Soderling was playing fine while Verdasco was dominating. He stuck around close to a player who could do no wrong until that player did a lot wrong. By not pressing and playing outside of his capabilities, Soderling saved the match. That's not to say pushing one's self is never the right answer, but he made a smart decision given the circumstances and didn't give Verdasco a bigger lead which would've taken the pressure off.
Honorable Mentions:
- Rome R1, Romina Oprandi def. Kaia Kanepi - 75 36 61 - What have you done for me lately Ms. Kanepi? Without a top 20 win this year, Kanepi feels ridiculously overranked. And with a large chunk of her points coming off at Wimbledon where she tore a hole through the draw in 2010, Kanepi might slide down to her rightful place for the way she's been playing recently. But for all the bad losses she's had this year, Kanepi's got a ton of talent and probably will never find a settling place. She'll keep yo-yoing around. And with all this, it's a good win for Oprandi. She'll be a home-favorite to make a surprising run.
- Rome R1, Paolo Lorenzi def. Thomaz Bellucci - 76 63 - Bellucci doesn't have the experience to back up as intense a week as he had in Madrid with another top-flight result. Lorenzi played well, and has been putting together a solid season for his standards, but it was all about the drop in level by Bellucci compared to when it looked like he might snap Djokovic's streak. Bellucci will bounce back and be a dangerous opponent to whoever has the misfortune of facing him in Paris. And Lorenzi gets to be the national hero for the day, after some disappointing results for his compatriots.
Monday, May 9, 2011
What it must be like for a Kuznetsova fan - 5/9/2011
Date: 5/9/2011
Result: Rome R1, Greta Arn def. Svetlana Kuznetsova, 3-6 7-6 7-6
Why it matters:
- So your favorite player is Svetlana Kuznetsova. The draw comes out and you notice that she's up against Greta Arn, who is in the best form of her fairly long career, but that best form has never been good enough for a top 15 win. Kuznetsova's game is almost tailor-made for clay courts. She can beat anyone on any day, has won Roland Garros, and has that heavy topspin that gives players fits. And so then she wins a comfortable first set and you think you can maybe relax. But you know Kuznetsova too well to be certain about how this is going to end. And then she loses a tight second where she had plenty of opportunities. Kuznetsova could shake it off and win 6-0, be jaded and lose 0-6, or anything in between could happen. But the worst possible thing happens - she loses a heartbreaker 7-6 in the 3rd and a very tight tiebreak. She's lost an insanely close match already this year and it seemed to stay with her. You know her mental strength is really only a mental weakness. You know her game collapses at the drop of a hat and she just doesn't play with the confidence of a two-time major champion. But when you watch, you can only think of the possibilities - the talent is SO big that you can imagine in an alternate universe she's been #1 for 200 straight weeks - but they almost never pan out. But you're a Kuznetsova fan, so you've resigned yourself to hoping, and accepting the sad procession of disappointments with the rare shining moment.
- For Arn, her first top 15 win is memorable in such an epic match and in an important event. After an impressive run already this year in Auckland, she keeps improving. Her game doesn't seem suited to clay, but on a hot day in Rome, the courts can quicken enough that her power can be devastating. Here's to hoping that Arn can ride this wave and continue to higher and higher career highs. And this seems entirely possible in the new "old" WTA, where the more experienced the player, the better the results they can put together.
Honorable Mentions:
- Rome R1, Gilles Simon def. Andy Roddick - 63 63 - The joke's over, isn't it? I believe that Roddick has been overranked for awhile, but he's not the type of player to lose this many matches in a row, even if the last two were on his least favorite surface. Even his fans could get something out of seeing Andy lose early for a few matches - maybe he would decide to be aggressive and abandon his "pusher" game. But this match he tried to be more aggressive, but did it so purposelessly that he was repeatedly passed by someone as talented as Simon. I believe Roddick has the desire, but if he can't channel it properly (namely, by playing smart aggressive tennis rather than being aggressive in his demeanor against officials, the media and the crowd), then he should just give it up. Simon played incredibly, by the way, and totally deserved to win. He's been underranked for awhile and it'll only be a matter of time before he's back in the top 20.
- Rome R1, Potito Starace def. Alexandr Dolgopolov - 63 63 - Starace put on a great show for the home crowd, comprehensively winning his first match and allowing the Italians to dream big this week. But in the end, it's Dolgopolov who has been so off recently that those lucky enough to show up against him just need to stick to the script to pick up the W. Dolgopolov's game impressed in Australia and his style seemed easily transferable to clay, but it hasn't happened. It seems to slow to match to grass, at least immediately, so look to the US Open Series to see if Dolgopolov was a flash in the pan, is actually a threat, or needs a few years.
Result: Rome R1, Greta Arn def. Svetlana Kuznetsova, 3-6 7-6 7-6
Why it matters:
- So your favorite player is Svetlana Kuznetsova. The draw comes out and you notice that she's up against Greta Arn, who is in the best form of her fairly long career, but that best form has never been good enough for a top 15 win. Kuznetsova's game is almost tailor-made for clay courts. She can beat anyone on any day, has won Roland Garros, and has that heavy topspin that gives players fits. And so then she wins a comfortable first set and you think you can maybe relax. But you know Kuznetsova too well to be certain about how this is going to end. And then she loses a tight second where she had plenty of opportunities. Kuznetsova could shake it off and win 6-0, be jaded and lose 0-6, or anything in between could happen. But the worst possible thing happens - she loses a heartbreaker 7-6 in the 3rd and a very tight tiebreak. She's lost an insanely close match already this year and it seemed to stay with her. You know her mental strength is really only a mental weakness. You know her game collapses at the drop of a hat and she just doesn't play with the confidence of a two-time major champion. But when you watch, you can only think of the possibilities - the talent is SO big that you can imagine in an alternate universe she's been #1 for 200 straight weeks - but they almost never pan out. But you're a Kuznetsova fan, so you've resigned yourself to hoping, and accepting the sad procession of disappointments with the rare shining moment.
- For Arn, her first top 15 win is memorable in such an epic match and in an important event. After an impressive run already this year in Auckland, she keeps improving. Her game doesn't seem suited to clay, but on a hot day in Rome, the courts can quicken enough that her power can be devastating. Here's to hoping that Arn can ride this wave and continue to higher and higher career highs. And this seems entirely possible in the new "old" WTA, where the more experienced the player, the better the results they can put together.
Honorable Mentions:
- Rome R1, Gilles Simon def. Andy Roddick - 63 63 - The joke's over, isn't it? I believe that Roddick has been overranked for awhile, but he's not the type of player to lose this many matches in a row, even if the last two were on his least favorite surface. Even his fans could get something out of seeing Andy lose early for a few matches - maybe he would decide to be aggressive and abandon his "pusher" game. But this match he tried to be more aggressive, but did it so purposelessly that he was repeatedly passed by someone as talented as Simon. I believe Roddick has the desire, but if he can't channel it properly (namely, by playing smart aggressive tennis rather than being aggressive in his demeanor against officials, the media and the crowd), then he should just give it up. Simon played incredibly, by the way, and totally deserved to win. He's been underranked for awhile and it'll only be a matter of time before he's back in the top 20.
- Rome R1, Potito Starace def. Alexandr Dolgopolov - 63 63 - Starace put on a great show for the home crowd, comprehensively winning his first match and allowing the Italians to dream big this week. But in the end, it's Dolgopolov who has been so off recently that those lucky enough to show up against him just need to stick to the script to pick up the W. Dolgopolov's game impressed in Australia and his style seemed easily transferable to clay, but it hasn't happened. It seems to slow to match to grass, at least immediately, so look to the US Open Series to see if Dolgopolov was a flash in the pan, is actually a threat, or needs a few years.
Sunday, May 8, 2011
Streak Broken - 5/8/2011
Date: 5/8/2011
Result: Madrid F, Novak Djokovic def. Rafael Nadal, 7-5 6-4
Why it matters:
- Why doesn't this matter?! This was a massive massive match. After wins for Djokovic in Indian Wells and Miami in the finals, it was clear that Djokovic was the master of hardcourts, but everyone was still hesitant to confirm that Novak could put together big results on clay. After an expected title in Belgrade, this was the big week. And no bigger way to finish it with a win over Nadal in his home country. And in two sets. After grinding in tight three-setters, Djokovic closed both of the sets admirably in Madrid - especially the first where he could've collapsed after blowing his dominant lead in the first and several set points in the 10th game.
- This was also important history-wise. As amazing a year as it's been for Novak, it's hard to imagine him matching Rafa and Roger in the Major tally or with weeks at #1, but he is pulling off something incredible that neither has done, and only McEnroe and Borg (though he'll likely pass Borg next week in Rome) have ever accomplished. Even if Djokovic can't convert long-term to be one of the all-time greats over his career, he'll always be able to hang his hat on what is indisputably one of the greatest all-time starts to a season ever.
- Nadal sounded more worried and looked more upset following this than I expected. These are not the best conditions for Rafa on clay - he's had his best stuff usually in Monte-Carlo, followed closely by Paris and Rome, but in the three years Madrid's been on clay, he's not been as dominant. So Nadal should chalk it up to Madrid being Madrid and think about his dominance in Rome and Paris. But instead he was thinking about the #1 ranking. It's not panic time yet for Nadal. I fully expect him to win Rome and Paris still, but if he suffers a shock loss at either, or worse another loss to Novak, then the panic might be proper. However, Nadal does need to watch this match and see how much more effective he was when he was stepping in and dictating rather than hitting defensive shots to Djokovic's backhand (who came up with that game plan, by the way?). The two might be linked, though. If he's concerned about losing his grip on #1, maybe he's losing his confidence in being aggressive.
Honorable Mentions:
- Madrid F, Petra Kvitova def. Victoria Azarenka - 76 64 - The first set tiebreak was so crucial. The players were trading breaks and holds haphazardly and that tiebreak was always going to set a big tone for the second set. Kvitova really hit her spots and overpowered Azarenka in the tiebreak, and rode the wave to the title. It was certainly impressive, but now Kvitova has set herself up for added pressure next week when she heads not to Rome, but home to Prague for a challenger event.
- Rome R1, Fernando Verdasco def. Milos Raonic - 64 64 - Finally, Verdasco got his full revenge. After an incomplete in Estoril two weeks ago, Verdasco got to give Raonic the clay court lesson that he'd been dying to give. For Verdasco, the icing on the cake is that it was early in a Masters Series, so it was a bigger event than either time Raonic had tagged him earlier in the season and if there is any kind of bad blood between the two, then Verdasco also had the pleasure of blocking what has been a meteoric rise up the rankings by Raonic. Raonic will never be a dominant force on clay, but he should be able to get through a few matches. But it's all about building towards grass where Raonic could be a natural. Raonic needs to push to try to be seeded as high as possible for Wimbledon to ease his possible draw.
Result: Madrid F, Novak Djokovic def. Rafael Nadal, 7-5 6-4
Why it matters:
- Why doesn't this matter?! This was a massive massive match. After wins for Djokovic in Indian Wells and Miami in the finals, it was clear that Djokovic was the master of hardcourts, but everyone was still hesitant to confirm that Novak could put together big results on clay. After an expected title in Belgrade, this was the big week. And no bigger way to finish it with a win over Nadal in his home country. And in two sets. After grinding in tight three-setters, Djokovic closed both of the sets admirably in Madrid - especially the first where he could've collapsed after blowing his dominant lead in the first and several set points in the 10th game.
- This was also important history-wise. As amazing a year as it's been for Novak, it's hard to imagine him matching Rafa and Roger in the Major tally or with weeks at #1, but he is pulling off something incredible that neither has done, and only McEnroe and Borg (though he'll likely pass Borg next week in Rome) have ever accomplished. Even if Djokovic can't convert long-term to be one of the all-time greats over his career, he'll always be able to hang his hat on what is indisputably one of the greatest all-time starts to a season ever.
- Nadal sounded more worried and looked more upset following this than I expected. These are not the best conditions for Rafa on clay - he's had his best stuff usually in Monte-Carlo, followed closely by Paris and Rome, but in the three years Madrid's been on clay, he's not been as dominant. So Nadal should chalk it up to Madrid being Madrid and think about his dominance in Rome and Paris. But instead he was thinking about the #1 ranking. It's not panic time yet for Nadal. I fully expect him to win Rome and Paris still, but if he suffers a shock loss at either, or worse another loss to Novak, then the panic might be proper. However, Nadal does need to watch this match and see how much more effective he was when he was stepping in and dictating rather than hitting defensive shots to Djokovic's backhand (who came up with that game plan, by the way?). The two might be linked, though. If he's concerned about losing his grip on #1, maybe he's losing his confidence in being aggressive.
Honorable Mentions:
- Madrid F, Petra Kvitova def. Victoria Azarenka - 76 64 - The first set tiebreak was so crucial. The players were trading breaks and holds haphazardly and that tiebreak was always going to set a big tone for the second set. Kvitova really hit her spots and overpowered Azarenka in the tiebreak, and rode the wave to the title. It was certainly impressive, but now Kvitova has set herself up for added pressure next week when she heads not to Rome, but home to Prague for a challenger event.
- Rome R1, Fernando Verdasco def. Milos Raonic - 64 64 - Finally, Verdasco got his full revenge. After an incomplete in Estoril two weeks ago, Verdasco got to give Raonic the clay court lesson that he'd been dying to give. For Verdasco, the icing on the cake is that it was early in a Masters Series, so it was a bigger event than either time Raonic had tagged him earlier in the season and if there is any kind of bad blood between the two, then Verdasco also had the pleasure of blocking what has been a meteoric rise up the rankings by Raonic. Raonic will never be a dominant force on clay, but he should be able to get through a few matches. But it's all about building towards grass where Raonic could be a natural. Raonic needs to push to try to be seeded as high as possible for Wimbledon to ease his possible draw.
Saturday, May 7, 2011
What Kvitova is capable of - 5/7/2011
Date: 5/7/2011
Result: Madrid SF, Petra Kvitova def. Li Na, 6-3 6-1
Why it matters:
- Kvitova isn't joking around. We know that she's capable of big wins - she not only made a massive run at Wimbledon, but followed it up with good results in Australia and Paris indoors. Now she's tackling the clay and putting together some wins on a big stage. The key today was not just that she beat someone the level of Li, but that she demolished her. She dominated all aspects and was especially impressive on the return. I've questioned if she can really string enough wins together against top players, but a title in Madrid would put most of those questions to rest, especially if she goes through three top-tenners to do so. I still think that she's such a rhythm player and can be so streaky, that winning in Paris is out of the question, but why not another big run at Wimbledon? She's top 10 now, which should help her draws significantly. I'm not ready to say she'll win a major yet, but maybe several more semifinals or a final? And it could be even as soon as Wimbledon or the US Open.
- Li can't be pleased, but this was her typical type of result up until she started to convince us she was capable of more in Australia. She, like Kvitova, has always been streaky but capable of dominating any opponent on any given day. Today just wasn't her day. If she wants to continue this upward momentum she's had in 2011, she'll need to figure out how to really minimize these losses throughout the year. However, if at the start of the tournament she was told she'd be in the semis, I think she'd have taken it. But losing to Kvitova, as opposed to Zvonareva or another "big" name, will still sting a bit.
Honorable Mentions:
- Madrid SF, Novak Djokovic def. Thomaz Bellucci - 46 64 61 - It REALLY seemed like this would be it for the streak. Bellucci was playing out of his mind, dictating every point; Djokovic was much too passive, as if he hadn't recovered from the late night effort against Ferrer in the quarterfinals. But once Bellucci gave Djokovic that small opening, and Djokovic won an inspired long rally to psyche him up, he remembered that losing this match wasn't in the script. He will lose tomorrow if he gets off to a slow start again, but don't be surprised if Novak gets himself up for another big test against Nadal.
- Madrid SF, Rafael Nadal def. Roger Federer - 57 61 63 - This was definitely not the demolition that we saw in Miami, but that might actually be a worse thing for Federer. Roger played some of the most inspired tennis he's played this year, Rafa looked a mess, and Roger eked out a set, then got routined (in score, which doesn't REALLY reflect how close that 3rd actually was) by Rafa. He was ornery in arguing line calls and on edge the whole time. And these were basically the best possible clay conditions for Roger. The fact that the roof was closed definitely helped Federer significantly in limiting mishits and errors. Federer can't delude himself into thinking that he was that close today. He really needs to regroup, restrategize, and most importantly, reevaluate his place in the game and what realistic expectations are. If he stops obsessing about #1 and focuses only on how to peak at the majors, he may add to his legacy in a more impactful way than he's been doing over the last 12 months.
Result: Madrid SF, Petra Kvitova def. Li Na, 6-3 6-1
Why it matters:
- Kvitova isn't joking around. We know that she's capable of big wins - she not only made a massive run at Wimbledon, but followed it up with good results in Australia and Paris indoors. Now she's tackling the clay and putting together some wins on a big stage. The key today was not just that she beat someone the level of Li, but that she demolished her. She dominated all aspects and was especially impressive on the return. I've questioned if she can really string enough wins together against top players, but a title in Madrid would put most of those questions to rest, especially if she goes through three top-tenners to do so. I still think that she's such a rhythm player and can be so streaky, that winning in Paris is out of the question, but why not another big run at Wimbledon? She's top 10 now, which should help her draws significantly. I'm not ready to say she'll win a major yet, but maybe several more semifinals or a final? And it could be even as soon as Wimbledon or the US Open.
- Li can't be pleased, but this was her typical type of result up until she started to convince us she was capable of more in Australia. She, like Kvitova, has always been streaky but capable of dominating any opponent on any given day. Today just wasn't her day. If she wants to continue this upward momentum she's had in 2011, she'll need to figure out how to really minimize these losses throughout the year. However, if at the start of the tournament she was told she'd be in the semis, I think she'd have taken it. But losing to Kvitova, as opposed to Zvonareva or another "big" name, will still sting a bit.
Honorable Mentions:
- Madrid SF, Novak Djokovic def. Thomaz Bellucci - 46 64 61 - It REALLY seemed like this would be it for the streak. Bellucci was playing out of his mind, dictating every point; Djokovic was much too passive, as if he hadn't recovered from the late night effort against Ferrer in the quarterfinals. But once Bellucci gave Djokovic that small opening, and Djokovic won an inspired long rally to psyche him up, he remembered that losing this match wasn't in the script. He will lose tomorrow if he gets off to a slow start again, but don't be surprised if Novak gets himself up for another big test against Nadal.
- Madrid SF, Rafael Nadal def. Roger Federer - 57 61 63 - This was definitely not the demolition that we saw in Miami, but that might actually be a worse thing for Federer. Roger played some of the most inspired tennis he's played this year, Rafa looked a mess, and Roger eked out a set, then got routined (in score, which doesn't REALLY reflect how close that 3rd actually was) by Rafa. He was ornery in arguing line calls and on edge the whole time. And these were basically the best possible clay conditions for Roger. The fact that the roof was closed definitely helped Federer significantly in limiting mishits and errors. Federer can't delude himself into thinking that he was that close today. He really needs to regroup, restrategize, and most importantly, reevaluate his place in the game and what realistic expectations are. If he stops obsessing about #1 and focuses only on how to peak at the majors, he may add to his legacy in a more impactful way than he's been doing over the last 12 months.
Friday, May 6, 2011
Battle for #2 on clay - 5/6/2011
Date: 5/6/2011
Result: Madrid QF, Novak Djokovic def. David Ferrer, 6-4 4-6 6-3
Why it matters:
- This was the match to unofficially determine who the second best claycourter is after Rafa Nadal. And it was a great battle of clay court tennis, with players using all parts of the court, defending incredibly, mixing up spins and just laying everything out late night (or in Madrid, at dinner time). Although I (and most others) already considered Djokovic to be a bigger threat in a match against Nadal on clay no matter today's result given how Ferrer had performed in the finals of Monte-Carlo and Barcelona, Djokovic pulled this one out anyway to reinforce the idea that Ferrer was just filling the void in Djokovic's absence at the previous two big events. Now that Djokovic is back and refreshed, he's performing at the same level as he did on the hard courts.
- Djokovic REALLY wanted this win. Maybe because it was his first big test against a big name on clay this year, but he showed his intensity on the big points. This is crucial because it looks like the motivation is still there. He is not getting complacent about his incredible win streak. But more importantly, he showed his emotion ONLY at the right times and didn't waste any extra energy. He'll need this kind of maturity if he's going to be able to threaten Nadal.
Honorable Mentions:
- Madrid QF, Thomaz Bellucci def. Tomas Berdych - 76 63 - Likely the biggest win of the Brazilian's career. Bellucci had beaten Berdych before in a challenger, but that was before Berdych's growth into a threat at the majors. This is Bellucci's first year with any top 10 wins and his two at this event have been more impressive because they weren't in a random early round against a top player who wasn't used to conditions. It was in a big event in a big round, and what's more, Bellucci took it to Berdych. A very impressive victory, but can he sustain this form?
- Madrid QF, Li Na def. Bethanie Mattek-Sands - 64 36 64 - Another fierce fight for Mattek-Sands, but in the end she's always going to need some help to win matches because she's too streaky to sustain a hot streak herself, so she needs her opponent's level to dip, too. This wasn't Li's best match, but she wasn't bad either. However, all things equal Li's always going to beat the American. This tournament is a great opportunity for Li to put her name back in the conversation and move even higher in the ranks. Bethanie had an amazing week, and if she keeps up the momentum, look for her to keep winning a lot of matches. For both, look for them especially on the grass where they've each performed well before.
Result: Madrid QF, Novak Djokovic def. David Ferrer, 6-4 4-6 6-3
Why it matters:
- This was the match to unofficially determine who the second best claycourter is after Rafa Nadal. And it was a great battle of clay court tennis, with players using all parts of the court, defending incredibly, mixing up spins and just laying everything out late night (or in Madrid, at dinner time). Although I (and most others) already considered Djokovic to be a bigger threat in a match against Nadal on clay no matter today's result given how Ferrer had performed in the finals of Monte-Carlo and Barcelona, Djokovic pulled this one out anyway to reinforce the idea that Ferrer was just filling the void in Djokovic's absence at the previous two big events. Now that Djokovic is back and refreshed, he's performing at the same level as he did on the hard courts.
- Djokovic REALLY wanted this win. Maybe because it was his first big test against a big name on clay this year, but he showed his intensity on the big points. This is crucial because it looks like the motivation is still there. He is not getting complacent about his incredible win streak. But more importantly, he showed his emotion ONLY at the right times and didn't waste any extra energy. He'll need this kind of maturity if he's going to be able to threaten Nadal.
Honorable Mentions:
- Madrid QF, Thomaz Bellucci def. Tomas Berdych - 76 63 - Likely the biggest win of the Brazilian's career. Bellucci had beaten Berdych before in a challenger, but that was before Berdych's growth into a threat at the majors. This is Bellucci's first year with any top 10 wins and his two at this event have been more impressive because they weren't in a random early round against a top player who wasn't used to conditions. It was in a big event in a big round, and what's more, Bellucci took it to Berdych. A very impressive victory, but can he sustain this form?
- Madrid QF, Li Na def. Bethanie Mattek-Sands - 64 36 64 - Another fierce fight for Mattek-Sands, but in the end she's always going to need some help to win matches because she's too streaky to sustain a hot streak herself, so she needs her opponent's level to dip, too. This wasn't Li's best match, but she wasn't bad either. However, all things equal Li's always going to beat the American. This tournament is a great opportunity for Li to put her name back in the conversation and move even higher in the ranks. Bethanie had an amazing week, and if she keeps up the momentum, look for her to keep winning a lot of matches. For both, look for them especially on the grass where they've each performed well before.
Fool me once... - 5/5/2011
Date: 5/5/2011
Result: Madrid R3, Julia Goerges def. Caroline Wozniacki, 6-4 1-6 6-3
Why it matters:
- Goerges proved it wasn't a fluke. She really just has the game that can be Woz on clay. The funny thing is, Goerges doesn't actually seem like a claycourter, but she's making the little adjustments to her game that lets her attack someone like Caroline. Think about how Soderling picked apart Rafa at the French by playing good "patiently aggressive" tennis. Soderling's really an indoor player, but has figured out how to make the clay work for him. Same with Goerges. She's got a big enough game that a faster court should be better, but when she tomahawks her forehand and mixes up her big serves with smart serves, she becomes tricky on a slower court.
- Another missed chance for Wozniacki on the red stuff. Her patient play seems to be tailored for clay, but in the end it's just too passive. When she can't really get extra help from the court surface to make her shots penetrate deep, she's more ready for the taking. And given the typical style of play that most people have on tour nowadays, it means that Wozniacki will get more likely than not get taken out in each event during the clay season. I don't think she'll be clear favorite at the French anymore...
Honorable Mentions:
- Madrid R3, Victoria Azarenka def. Arantxa Parra Santonja - 60 63 - ...because Victoria Azarenka probably has to be. Her only loss in the last month and a half has been when she retired up 6-4. I know I gave Azarenka a hard time, but she's really playing with confidence and showing exactly what she's capable of. Parra Santonja's been having an off year (though an on week in Madrid, beating Pennetta and Petkovic), but that doesn't diminish the ruthlessness with which Azarenka is winning. Unfortunately, if she is the favorite come Paris time, we'll see if she can deal with the pressure of taking that big step.
-Madrid R3, Robin Soderling def. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 76 75 - Another hierarchy match for the big hitters. Just as I noted that del Potro has separated himself from Soderling, I think Soderling is proving the gap between himself and Tsonga. This was tight, but Soderling has the more consistent weapons and the more level head when it matters. Tsonga plays with flair, passion and more excitement, but slow and steady wins the race, especially on clay. If Tsonga developed the strategic side, I think he's arguably more talented than Soderling. But when he's relying on moments of inspiration rather than an articulated and premeditated plan, he's going to come up short against the Soderling we've seen in the last two years more often than not.
Result: Madrid R3, Julia Goerges def. Caroline Wozniacki, 6-4 1-6 6-3
Why it matters:
- Goerges proved it wasn't a fluke. She really just has the game that can be Woz on clay. The funny thing is, Goerges doesn't actually seem like a claycourter, but she's making the little adjustments to her game that lets her attack someone like Caroline. Think about how Soderling picked apart Rafa at the French by playing good "patiently aggressive" tennis. Soderling's really an indoor player, but has figured out how to make the clay work for him. Same with Goerges. She's got a big enough game that a faster court should be better, but when she tomahawks her forehand and mixes up her big serves with smart serves, she becomes tricky on a slower court.
- Another missed chance for Wozniacki on the red stuff. Her patient play seems to be tailored for clay, but in the end it's just too passive. When she can't really get extra help from the court surface to make her shots penetrate deep, she's more ready for the taking. And given the typical style of play that most people have on tour nowadays, it means that Wozniacki will get more likely than not get taken out in each event during the clay season. I don't think she'll be clear favorite at the French anymore...
Honorable Mentions:
- Madrid R3, Victoria Azarenka def. Arantxa Parra Santonja - 60 63 - ...because Victoria Azarenka probably has to be. Her only loss in the last month and a half has been when she retired up 6-4. I know I gave Azarenka a hard time, but she's really playing with confidence and showing exactly what she's capable of. Parra Santonja's been having an off year (though an on week in Madrid, beating Pennetta and Petkovic), but that doesn't diminish the ruthlessness with which Azarenka is winning. Unfortunately, if she is the favorite come Paris time, we'll see if she can deal with the pressure of taking that big step.
-Madrid R3, Robin Soderling def. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 76 75 - Another hierarchy match for the big hitters. Just as I noted that del Potro has separated himself from Soderling, I think Soderling is proving the gap between himself and Tsonga. This was tight, but Soderling has the more consistent weapons and the more level head when it matters. Tsonga plays with flair, passion and more excitement, but slow and steady wins the race, especially on clay. If Tsonga developed the strategic side, I think he's arguably more talented than Soderling. But when he's relying on moments of inspiration rather than an articulated and premeditated plan, he's going to come up short against the Soderling we've seen in the last two years more often than not.
Thursday, May 5, 2011
Making 3 Tiebreaks fun - 5/4/2011
Date: 5/4/2011
Result: Madrid R2, Roger Federer def. Feliciano Lopez, 7-6 6-7 7-6
Why it matters:
- Roger and Feliciano put on an exciting show, full of solid shotmaking and some fun rallies. As with any three tiebreak match, lots of big serves were hit and there were only two breaks - one per player. But the return games were competitive, so it wasn't a given that each set would be decided at 6-6. On top of that, the tiebreaks were fascinating. Federer ground out both of his wins, while Lopez put on a shocking display to blowout Federer in the 2nd set. Thanks to the guys for entertaining anyone who got to watch.
- Now for each of the players, for Lopez, another heartbreaking loss, but he should really take a lot out of this. His best tennis can threaten most (he didn't really play his best in the Belgrade final), and he's in good form recently. Look out for him to be dangerous in the next few weeks - maybe not on the slower clay courts in Rome or Madrid, but definitely when grass season rolls around.
- This is kind of a big win for Roger. He's still in the event where he can try to play himself into top form. More importantly, though, he lost last time he played this tight a match against someone he was expected to beat. It's apparent he's not going to blow people out day after day like he used to, so he'll need to use his experience and talent to sneak through more of these types of matches to sustain himself at the very top of the game. Look for a bounce back against Malisse next round.
Honorable Mentions:
- Madrid R3, Petra Kvitova def. Vera Zvonareva - 61 64 - two players who fell out of the conversation in the last month for some reason, but Kvitova is trying to make a case why she should be back in the mix. Kvitova's style makes her a threat in any match against any opponent, but she's too inconsistent (and sometimes impatient) to imagine her making a 6 or 7 match run anytime soon when it matters. Even so, no one will want her anywhere nearby in the draw either in Rome or Paris. Zvonareva needs to recover. She made her first big splash on tour at the French, and with the field as open as ever, she could take the extra step she just couldn't take last year at Wimbledon or the US Open. But until she starts to beat some of the players she's been beating over the last 12 months, she's going to remain out of the main conversation.
- Madrid R2, Juan Martin del Potro def. Marin Cilic - 63 60 - remember when both these guys were in the next generation ready to threaten regularly? Well del Potro's been doing so (when not injured), but Cilic is MIA. His only top-10 win of the year was in a small event in Marseille over Berdych, and that was scattered among several poor losses. Cilic's stroke production and movement really isn't suited for clay courts - he's a much better hard court player - but even on his worst surface, losses this lopsided shouldn't be happening for someone as talented as him. For del Potro, it's a great sign that he could put together this kind of performance after a long first round match. Maybe his fitness is almost all the way back.
Result: Madrid R2, Roger Federer def. Feliciano Lopez, 7-6 6-7 7-6
Why it matters:
- Roger and Feliciano put on an exciting show, full of solid shotmaking and some fun rallies. As with any three tiebreak match, lots of big serves were hit and there were only two breaks - one per player. But the return games were competitive, so it wasn't a given that each set would be decided at 6-6. On top of that, the tiebreaks were fascinating. Federer ground out both of his wins, while Lopez put on a shocking display to blowout Federer in the 2nd set. Thanks to the guys for entertaining anyone who got to watch.
- Now for each of the players, for Lopez, another heartbreaking loss, but he should really take a lot out of this. His best tennis can threaten most (he didn't really play his best in the Belgrade final), and he's in good form recently. Look out for him to be dangerous in the next few weeks - maybe not on the slower clay courts in Rome or Madrid, but definitely when grass season rolls around.
- This is kind of a big win for Roger. He's still in the event where he can try to play himself into top form. More importantly, though, he lost last time he played this tight a match against someone he was expected to beat. It's apparent he's not going to blow people out day after day like he used to, so he'll need to use his experience and talent to sneak through more of these types of matches to sustain himself at the very top of the game. Look for a bounce back against Malisse next round.
Honorable Mentions:
- Madrid R3, Petra Kvitova def. Vera Zvonareva - 61 64 - two players who fell out of the conversation in the last month for some reason, but Kvitova is trying to make a case why she should be back in the mix. Kvitova's style makes her a threat in any match against any opponent, but she's too inconsistent (and sometimes impatient) to imagine her making a 6 or 7 match run anytime soon when it matters. Even so, no one will want her anywhere nearby in the draw either in Rome or Paris. Zvonareva needs to recover. She made her first big splash on tour at the French, and with the field as open as ever, she could take the extra step she just couldn't take last year at Wimbledon or the US Open. But until she starts to beat some of the players she's been beating over the last 12 months, she's going to remain out of the main conversation.
- Madrid R2, Juan Martin del Potro def. Marin Cilic - 63 60 - remember when both these guys were in the next generation ready to threaten regularly? Well del Potro's been doing so (when not injured), but Cilic is MIA. His only top-10 win of the year was in a small event in Marseille over Berdych, and that was scattered among several poor losses. Cilic's stroke production and movement really isn't suited for clay courts - he's a much better hard court player - but even on his worst surface, losses this lopsided shouldn't be happening for someone as talented as him. For del Potro, it's a great sign that he could put together this kind of performance after a long first round match. Maybe his fitness is almost all the way back.
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
A real shock - 5/3/2011
Date: 5/3/2011
Result: Madrid R1, Yen-Hsun Lu def. Fernando Verdasco, 7-6 7-5
Why it matters:
- Everything I said previously about Lu on clay still stands. He didn't magically put on a clay master class today. And he didn't make that many small adjustments to begin to become a clay court threat. That being said, his game isn't on its face horrible for clay courts, it just has never worked before. But Lu had never been lucky enough previously to face an opponent who looked like he was ready to self-destruct from the first point. We'll see if this spurs Lu on to more on the dirt.
- Another poor Verdasco result in an important clay event. Last year's runs in Monte-Carlo and Rome seemed like the start of something big, but after back-to-back poor results (sandwiching a good run in the smaller event in Estoril), Verdasco is on the outside looking in to the elite. His attitude on court was the most disturbing part of this loss. It must be frustrating to not perform at home against a less-than-dangerous opponent, but blaming the court surface and other random factors is ridiculous. Verdasco will be back in Rome, but will he be better?
Honorable Mentions:
- Madrid R2, David Ferrer def. Adrian Mannarino - 75 06 60 - Talk about momentum swings. Truth be told, for the first two sets Ferrer was being outplayed regularly, but Mannarino squandered his opportunities in the first, and then ran out of them in the third. This is the type of match top players just need to get through sometimes. Nothing too much to worry about, just really odd for Ferrer. Hopefully he's gotten it out of his system. Mannarino can take a lot from this - he knows he can hang with the big boys on their best surface, but turning that into something for the French to talk about in a few week? That'll be trickier.
- Madrid R2, Francesca Schiavone def. Sara Errani - 60 26 63 - Francesca still needs to find her best tennis, but she's still got three weeks before it becomes extremely critical. She had flashes of brilliance, but I think she's feeling the pressure this year that comes with expectation. Without the element of surprise and hope, and that joie de vivre that effervesced during her French Open run last year, she's not the same player. If she finds the inspiration, the field is as wide open as last year, so don't count Schiavone out. But given her current form, the more likely scenario is she crumbled at an early hurdle while trying to defend.
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
Defending a title in a different city - 5/2/2011
Date: 5/2/2011
Result: Madrid R1, Li Na def. Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez, 6-4 7-6
Why it matters:
- Because of the reorganization of the tennis calendar, putting Rome after Madrid, Martinez Sanchez's big week "defending" the ranking points from her Rome title actually happened this week in Madrid. In some ways, that could've been really nice for Martinez Sanchez, playing with home crowd support and being in a different city may not carry the same obvious pressure to defend as she could feel in the Italian capital. But instead, Martinez Sanchez couldn't convert. Li isn't an easy opponent, that's clear, but Schiavone, Wozniacki, Ivanovic, and Jankovic, all whom Maria Jose beat without losing a set in Rome last year, aren't easy either. The fact of the matter is that the Spaniard's run in Rome last year is looking more like a fluke every week. She's a talented player, and definitely better than the mid-80s rank she'll plummet to next week, but she was never the type of player who should be winning one of the more prestigious and historic titles on tour. Either way, Martinez Sanchez gets to truly defend next week in Rome, but she'll have to do so at her lowest ranking since January 2009.
- Li's piecing things back together. Since her loss in the Melbourne final from a set up against Clijsters, she'd only won one match. Li's game is too reliant on going for big flat shots for big winners to ever be extremely effective on clay - her opponents will get too many balls back until Li starts to spray errors. But if the Chinese #1 wants to cement herself among the game's elite and remain in the conversation as a potential repeat slam finalist (or champion? Wimbledon anyone?), she should work on some patience on the clay so she can be at her most deadly when she heads to England.
Honorable Mentions:
-Madrid R1, Thiemo de Bakker def. Juan Carlos Ferrero - 26 75 64 - After some positive momentum in his first event back, Ferrero stumbles at the first hurdle in Madrid. One of those players who is not really as much of a "clay-court specialist" as he's considered, Madrid seemed like a perfect fast clay-court for Ferrero to win a round or two. But de Bakker is also talented on clay, especially fast clay, and just wore down Ferrero over the course of a long match. Give Ferrero a few weeks to get back to peak condition, but for a player at age 31, his peak may not be high enough to compete at the highest level anymore.
-Madrid R1, Flavio Cipolla def. Andy Roddick - 64 67 63 - This is what happens when you're low on confidence, don't prepare intelligently for a new surface, and comport yourself with a bad attitude. Even with all this, Roddick shouldn't have lost to the world #160, but he did. Roddick should just throw in the towel on the clay court season, work on things that will work on the grass, and just think only of Wimbledon. But unfortunately for him, with his ranking sagging and sub-par grass results last year, his seeding at Wimbledon, even under the adjusted system, won't keep him away from the top players. So he'll need some wins along the way on the clay (remember, he actually did ok-ish in Paris last year) to boost his seeding in London.
Result: Madrid R1, Li Na def. Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez, 6-4 7-6
Why it matters:
- Because of the reorganization of the tennis calendar, putting Rome after Madrid, Martinez Sanchez's big week "defending" the ranking points from her Rome title actually happened this week in Madrid. In some ways, that could've been really nice for Martinez Sanchez, playing with home crowd support and being in a different city may not carry the same obvious pressure to defend as she could feel in the Italian capital. But instead, Martinez Sanchez couldn't convert. Li isn't an easy opponent, that's clear, but Schiavone, Wozniacki, Ivanovic, and Jankovic, all whom Maria Jose beat without losing a set in Rome last year, aren't easy either. The fact of the matter is that the Spaniard's run in Rome last year is looking more like a fluke every week. She's a talented player, and definitely better than the mid-80s rank she'll plummet to next week, but she was never the type of player who should be winning one of the more prestigious and historic titles on tour. Either way, Martinez Sanchez gets to truly defend next week in Rome, but she'll have to do so at her lowest ranking since January 2009.
- Li's piecing things back together. Since her loss in the Melbourne final from a set up against Clijsters, she'd only won one match. Li's game is too reliant on going for big flat shots for big winners to ever be extremely effective on clay - her opponents will get too many balls back until Li starts to spray errors. But if the Chinese #1 wants to cement herself among the game's elite and remain in the conversation as a potential repeat slam finalist (or champion? Wimbledon anyone?), she should work on some patience on the clay so she can be at her most deadly when she heads to England.
Honorable Mentions:
-Madrid R1, Thiemo de Bakker def. Juan Carlos Ferrero - 26 75 64 - After some positive momentum in his first event back, Ferrero stumbles at the first hurdle in Madrid. One of those players who is not really as much of a "clay-court specialist" as he's considered, Madrid seemed like a perfect fast clay-court for Ferrero to win a round or two. But de Bakker is also talented on clay, especially fast clay, and just wore down Ferrero over the course of a long match. Give Ferrero a few weeks to get back to peak condition, but for a player at age 31, his peak may not be high enough to compete at the highest level anymore.
-Madrid R1, Flavio Cipolla def. Andy Roddick - 64 67 63 - This is what happens when you're low on confidence, don't prepare intelligently for a new surface, and comport yourself with a bad attitude. Even with all this, Roddick shouldn't have lost to the world #160, but he did. Roddick should just throw in the towel on the clay court season, work on things that will work on the grass, and just think only of Wimbledon. But unfortunately for him, with his ranking sagging and sub-par grass results last year, his seeding at Wimbledon, even under the adjusted system, won't keep him away from the top players. So he'll need some wins along the way on the clay (remember, he actually did ok-ish in Paris last year) to boost his seeding in London.
Sunday, May 1, 2011
Squandering a chance to improve his image - 5/1/2011
Date: 5/1/2011
Result: Madrid R1, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga def. Nicolas Almagro, 6-1 6-3
Why it matters:
- This was to be Nicolas Almagro's big chance. In front of his home crowd, in his nation's biggest event (rankings-wise at least, there's some argument about the prestige factor/history of the Barcelona event), Almagro was going to make a run as a newly minted top 10 player, into the quarterfinals at least with his favorable draw, and maybe even threaten Federer in the quarters or Rafa in the semis, as he put up a game fight last year. But he just didn't show up today. Sunday starts are always a bit awkward for the top guys, but that shouldn't be an excuse. Almagro should recognize this as a missed opportunity and learn from it. Look for him to bounce back in Rome.
- Tsonga continues to mystify. Coming in without a top-10 win on the year and playing on his worst surface against a player who excels on clay, of course Tsonga was destined to win this match. He always seems to perform best when least expected. Unfortunately for him and the crowd a Roland Garros, the immense attention he always receives in Paris likely means that no matter how far of a run he makes in Madrid, he'll probably flop at the French.
Honorable Mentions:
- Madrid R1, Bethanie Mattek-Sands def. Ana Ivanovic - 06 64 64 - Another one of those "this is why tennis is great" matches. When a player takes the first 6-0, it seems like it should be proof that they are far superior and ready to roll. In hockey, soccer, or baseball, a 6-0 headstart is going to be almost impossible to overcome. But Mattek-Sands remembered that in tennis, a set, no matter the score, is worth one set. And so she put the first behind her and geared up for the next two. Ivanovic was allowed to lose this match, but not this way. After aggravating her ab injury during Fed Cup, if she needed an event to get back into the mix, it would've been acceptable, but blowing a lead reflects that health-wise she's ok, but mentally she's still prone to collapse. She performed well in Rome last year, and will need to again to make sure her momentum doesn't crap out again.
- Belgrade F, Novak Djokovic def. Feliciano Lopez - 76 62 - This was an ugly match, but Novak still pulled through. This is the type of effort that maintaining a winning streak requires. He was extremely lucky that he didn't have a serious injury when he took a tumble in the second set, but his flexibility seemed to really save him when an person of average build would've had something snap. Lopez did well to mix it up with Djokovic to make sure he couldn't get a grooved rhythm, but Lopez's game plan seemed ONLY to be mixing it up. He didn't have a clear enough idea of how to close points when he got an opening. But Lopez may have given some hope to those looking to challenge Djokovic during his hot streak about how to stay in the match.
Result: Madrid R1, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga def. Nicolas Almagro, 6-1 6-3
Why it matters:
- This was to be Nicolas Almagro's big chance. In front of his home crowd, in his nation's biggest event (rankings-wise at least, there's some argument about the prestige factor/history of the Barcelona event), Almagro was going to make a run as a newly minted top 10 player, into the quarterfinals at least with his favorable draw, and maybe even threaten Federer in the quarters or Rafa in the semis, as he put up a game fight last year. But he just didn't show up today. Sunday starts are always a bit awkward for the top guys, but that shouldn't be an excuse. Almagro should recognize this as a missed opportunity and learn from it. Look for him to bounce back in Rome.
- Tsonga continues to mystify. Coming in without a top-10 win on the year and playing on his worst surface against a player who excels on clay, of course Tsonga was destined to win this match. He always seems to perform best when least expected. Unfortunately for him and the crowd a Roland Garros, the immense attention he always receives in Paris likely means that no matter how far of a run he makes in Madrid, he'll probably flop at the French.
Honorable Mentions:
- Madrid R1, Bethanie Mattek-Sands def. Ana Ivanovic - 06 64 64 - Another one of those "this is why tennis is great" matches. When a player takes the first 6-0, it seems like it should be proof that they are far superior and ready to roll. In hockey, soccer, or baseball, a 6-0 headstart is going to be almost impossible to overcome. But Mattek-Sands remembered that in tennis, a set, no matter the score, is worth one set. And so she put the first behind her and geared up for the next two. Ivanovic was allowed to lose this match, but not this way. After aggravating her ab injury during Fed Cup, if she needed an event to get back into the mix, it would've been acceptable, but blowing a lead reflects that health-wise she's ok, but mentally she's still prone to collapse. She performed well in Rome last year, and will need to again to make sure her momentum doesn't crap out again.
- Belgrade F, Novak Djokovic def. Feliciano Lopez - 76 62 - This was an ugly match, but Novak still pulled through. This is the type of effort that maintaining a winning streak requires. He was extremely lucky that he didn't have a serious injury when he took a tumble in the second set, but his flexibility seemed to really save him when an person of average build would've had something snap. Lopez did well to mix it up with Djokovic to make sure he couldn't get a grooved rhythm, but Lopez's game plan seemed ONLY to be mixing it up. He didn't have a clear enough idea of how to close points when he got an opening. But Lopez may have given some hope to those looking to challenge Djokovic during his hot streak about how to stay in the match.
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Fizzled grudge match - 4/30/2011
Date: 4/30/2011
Result: Estoril SF, Fernando Verdasco def. Milos Raonic, 6-4 ret.
Why it matters:
- The grudge match that wasn't. Well, it kind of was. Verdasco should spin this as if he got the revenge he wanted after back-to-back losses to Raonic in February, after which Verdasco said he wanted to face the Canadian on clay to show him "real tennis". Fernando needs to convince himself that this was the win he needed to overcome his previous irritation. And there is some evidence that it was a significant win. Both players had to finish their quarterfinal matches earlier in the day, which likely contributed to Raonic's retirement - no need getting seriously injured before the big event in Madrid - so Verdasco's fitness (more specifically, his ability to play multiple matches without risk of injury) won out. And I think his complaint about Raonic's style being all serve stands up - hitting big serves can be taxing, but it takes a different level of fitness to grind through a high quality clay court match. Even so, there will probably be a seed of doubt in Verdasco's mind about Raonic until he takes him out in a completed match and has the feeling of winning match point.
- As mentioned above, Raonic's withdrawal likely is with an eye on Madrid (where the altitude may help is big game), Rome and of course Paris, so I'm not going to read too much into the retirement. Raonic is smart and well aware of how the year is going for him (10th best year-to-date), and that he'll need big results in the big events to keep pace. We'll see how he performs in Madrid as proof of this. But the fact of the matter was he was being asked to play at minimum 3 sets and at most 5 sets on this day, and guess how many he'll need to play in each individual round at Roland Garros? Exactly. If he wants to be an all-court contender, making sure he's got himself into top condition will be critical.
Honorable Mentions:
- Munich SF, Florian Mayer def. Philipp Petzschner - 63 64 - this was an interesting match in the battle between the Germans to take the lead in this generation of players, as well as making a push to match the results of the German women like Petkovic and Goerges. As with Goerges, a title before the home crowd could really boost the profile of Mayer, who already has been asserting himself. With 10 Germans in the top 100, but none in the top 30 (Mayer is tops at 35), someone will need to step up and inspire the others if they have any hope of matching the success of the Spaniards.
- Madrid R1, Victoria Azarenka def. Vera Dushevina - 60 60 - Azarenka seems to have recovered from her injury in Stuttgart. I mentioned previously that it was hard to believe that Azarenka is a top 5 player, but she's really trying to prove me, and her other doubters, wrong. Azarenka's game doesn't seem tailored to clay courts, but if she can string together a bunch of wins this spring, watch out for her on the American hardcourts where she traditionally excels. For Vera, just forget about this one...
Result: Estoril SF, Fernando Verdasco def. Milos Raonic, 6-4 ret.
Why it matters:
- The grudge match that wasn't. Well, it kind of was. Verdasco should spin this as if he got the revenge he wanted after back-to-back losses to Raonic in February, after which Verdasco said he wanted to face the Canadian on clay to show him "real tennis". Fernando needs to convince himself that this was the win he needed to overcome his previous irritation. And there is some evidence that it was a significant win. Both players had to finish their quarterfinal matches earlier in the day, which likely contributed to Raonic's retirement - no need getting seriously injured before the big event in Madrid - so Verdasco's fitness (more specifically, his ability to play multiple matches without risk of injury) won out. And I think his complaint about Raonic's style being all serve stands up - hitting big serves can be taxing, but it takes a different level of fitness to grind through a high quality clay court match. Even so, there will probably be a seed of doubt in Verdasco's mind about Raonic until he takes him out in a completed match and has the feeling of winning match point.
- As mentioned above, Raonic's withdrawal likely is with an eye on Madrid (where the altitude may help is big game), Rome and of course Paris, so I'm not going to read too much into the retirement. Raonic is smart and well aware of how the year is going for him (10th best year-to-date), and that he'll need big results in the big events to keep pace. We'll see how he performs in Madrid as proof of this. But the fact of the matter was he was being asked to play at minimum 3 sets and at most 5 sets on this day, and guess how many he'll need to play in each individual round at Roland Garros? Exactly. If he wants to be an all-court contender, making sure he's got himself into top condition will be critical.
Honorable Mentions:
- Munich SF, Florian Mayer def. Philipp Petzschner - 63 64 - this was an interesting match in the battle between the Germans to take the lead in this generation of players, as well as making a push to match the results of the German women like Petkovic and Goerges. As with Goerges, a title before the home crowd could really boost the profile of Mayer, who already has been asserting himself. With 10 Germans in the top 100, but none in the top 30 (Mayer is tops at 35), someone will need to step up and inspire the others if they have any hope of matching the success of the Spaniards.
- Madrid R1, Victoria Azarenka def. Vera Dushevina - 60 60 - Azarenka seems to have recovered from her injury in Stuttgart. I mentioned previously that it was hard to believe that Azarenka is a top 5 player, but she's really trying to prove me, and her other doubters, wrong. Azarenka's game doesn't seem tailored to clay courts, but if she can string together a bunch of wins this spring, watch out for her on the American hardcourts where she traditionally excels. For Vera, just forget about this one...
A modern women's claycourter - 4/29/2011
Date: 4/29/2011
Result: Barcelona SF, Roberta Vinci def. Laura Pous-Tio, 4-6 6-4 7-6
Why it matters:
- Three in a row for Vinci. After winning the title in 2009 and making the finals in 2010, Vinci is back again. But why? This is a place where she clearly excels, but her serve and volley game doesn't seem like the traditional tactic on clay. However, with the near extinction of slice in the women's game, at net is one of the rare places where players try to hit shots that stay particularly low. And while clay is slow and can really make topspin kick up, it also can help keep slices, or volleys, low. Of course Vinci isn't at net every point, but she comes in a lot for the WTA, and as Schiavone showed at Roland Garros last year, closing at net with low volleys, or just variety in general, can make a mark in the modern game especially on the red clay. The clay in different cities can play completely differently, but somehow Vinci's game just works well in Barcelona. Maybe she can take a lot of heart from her run here - Schiavone won the title last year before winning in Paris, so why not two veteran Italians in a row?
- Pous-Tio has come a long way from her 2nd round loss to Vinci last year. After missing about 20 months between September 2007 and May 2009, Pous-Tio is trying to resurrect her career, and converting on a lot of opportunities. This one slipped away, but Pous is looking like she might surpass her former results when she was a young up-and-comer. For Pous-Tio, the most interesting part of her attempt to comeback is that she's been playing tour level events and trying to qualify a lot, at least a lot more than playing tiny challengers to get her confidence up. But she must have something going, because if she can put together semifinal runs, then she'll be reaching newfound heights soon enough.
Honorable Mentions:
- Munich QF, Nikolay Davydenko def. Marin Cilic - 75 63 - Nothing too disrespectful losing to a former champion for Cilic, but with Davydenko's track record this year of losing to people less talented than Cilic, the Croat has got to feel like he let one slip. Cilic, too, is not living up to potential, and there are supposed to be his peak years, where Davydenko is near the end. I've believed too many times that certain wins by Davydenko would key him on to a recovery year, but I'm not willing to believe it again, at least until he takes a title... maybe in 2 days.
- Estoril QF, Juan Martin del Potro def. Robin Soderling - 64 75 - It happened again. After taking Soderling down in Miami as part of his comeback, del Potro does it again on clay. Despite where they grew up, it's arguable that Soderling is the more proficient claycourter of the two, so this is pretty impressive (though indoors would be even more impressive). Soderling has impressed since his 2009 run to the French Open final, but del Potro is proving, repeatedly, that when it comes to big guys with big groundstrokes, he's the true contender to be a dominant threat.
Result: Barcelona SF, Roberta Vinci def. Laura Pous-Tio, 4-6 6-4 7-6
Why it matters:
- Three in a row for Vinci. After winning the title in 2009 and making the finals in 2010, Vinci is back again. But why? This is a place where she clearly excels, but her serve and volley game doesn't seem like the traditional tactic on clay. However, with the near extinction of slice in the women's game, at net is one of the rare places where players try to hit shots that stay particularly low. And while clay is slow and can really make topspin kick up, it also can help keep slices, or volleys, low. Of course Vinci isn't at net every point, but she comes in a lot for the WTA, and as Schiavone showed at Roland Garros last year, closing at net with low volleys, or just variety in general, can make a mark in the modern game especially on the red clay. The clay in different cities can play completely differently, but somehow Vinci's game just works well in Barcelona. Maybe she can take a lot of heart from her run here - Schiavone won the title last year before winning in Paris, so why not two veteran Italians in a row?
- Pous-Tio has come a long way from her 2nd round loss to Vinci last year. After missing about 20 months between September 2007 and May 2009, Pous-Tio is trying to resurrect her career, and converting on a lot of opportunities. This one slipped away, but Pous is looking like she might surpass her former results when she was a young up-and-comer. For Pous-Tio, the most interesting part of her attempt to comeback is that she's been playing tour level events and trying to qualify a lot, at least a lot more than playing tiny challengers to get her confidence up. But she must have something going, because if she can put together semifinal runs, then she'll be reaching newfound heights soon enough.
Honorable Mentions:
- Munich QF, Nikolay Davydenko def. Marin Cilic - 75 63 - Nothing too disrespectful losing to a former champion for Cilic, but with Davydenko's track record this year of losing to people less talented than Cilic, the Croat has got to feel like he let one slip. Cilic, too, is not living up to potential, and there are supposed to be his peak years, where Davydenko is near the end. I've believed too many times that certain wins by Davydenko would key him on to a recovery year, but I'm not willing to believe it again, at least until he takes a title... maybe in 2 days.
- Estoril QF, Juan Martin del Potro def. Robin Soderling - 64 75 - It happened again. After taking Soderling down in Miami as part of his comeback, del Potro does it again on clay. Despite where they grew up, it's arguable that Soderling is the more proficient claycourter of the two, so this is pretty impressive (though indoors would be even more impressive). Soderling has impressed since his 2009 run to the French Open final, but del Potro is proving, repeatedly, that when it comes to big guys with big groundstrokes, he's the true contender to be a dominant threat.
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