Interesting revelations as clay season gets going - 4/10/2011

Date: 4/10/2011
Result: Houston F, Ryan Sweeting def. Kei Nishikori 6-4 7-6
Why it matters:
- It would've been nice for Kei to break through on Project 45  by taking the title, and then set his sights higher, but it seems inevitable that he'll make it to the top 45 soon.  I do think there's been too much build up on Project 45, as if once he makes it there he can stop working hard.  But Nishikori seems motivated enough to continue improving.  So although this one goal may need to wait, the big concern for the Nishikori camp is that he looked frozen during the match.  He let it get completely taken away from him.  Where was the confident Nishikori that stormed through and won his first final?  Where was the Nishikori of earlier this week in Houston where he had yet to drop a set?  Perhaps it was just an off day, but if Nishikori wants to push into the upper echelon of the game, he better be sure that his nerves won't get the best of him when he's the favorite to win big matches.
- For Ryan, this is impressive.  Ok, so it's not the most impressive field of the year, but there were enough decent claycourters who showed up, not to mention many more accomplished players generally.  At 17-32 career at the tour level coming in, this is a great effort no matter the field.  An impressive junior player, Sweeting really has been a late bloomer.  But as I mentioned at the beginning of the week, Sweeting's game looks like it transitions well to clay.  With this type of confidence boost to get him motivated for the big European road trip, with a decent draw, maybe Sweeting will be the American to watch for at Roland Garros to finally get us a player back into the second week.
- A quick note - Sweeting won this event as a wildcard.  And while I'm sure it's happened many times, it makes me think back to Ivanisevic winning Wimbledon in 2001.  Everyone always says "the tournament director must be pleased with himself for picking him as a wild card" whenever a wild card does well.  But it always makes me wonder.  Sure, wildcards are usually players who are talented, or would be a crowd-pleaser in some way, but I wonder if tournaments really think "we need to pick people who will perform well!", because if they did, then they should just give them out to the next highest ranked players as opposed to home favorites who have no chance.

Honorable Mentions:
- Marbella F, Victoria Azarenka def. Irina-Camelia Begu - 63 62 - Another win for Azarenka, and one that puts her in the top 5.  The rankings speak for themselves, but I don't think of Azarenka as a top 5 player.  I thought of her over the last few years as someone who could or should get to the top 5, but for some reason, now that she's there I'm still kind of surprised.  And with Schiavone needing to defend her French Open title to maintain her top 4 position, Azarenka could keep moving up depending on how things play out over the next few weeks.  For Begu, she didn't get her fairy-tale ending, but she already had a great week.  Can she build on it?
- Monte-Carlo R1, Ernests Gulbis def. Alexandr Dolgopolov - 61 64 - Didn't see this one coming.  Dolgopolov has been on fire this year, including performing well on clay, so all signs pointed to the Ukrainian putting it together in the first clay Masters Series of the year.  But Gulbis had different ideas, breaking 4 times.  Gulbis seems like he should be more effective on hard courts, but has consistently done his best work on clay.  If Gulbis wants to become more than a dangerous floater, he'll need to build on his impressive wins.