Sunday, April 24, 2011

How to beat Woz - 4/24/2011

Date: 4/24/2011
Result: Stuttgart F, Julia Goerges def. Caroline Wozniacki, 7-6 6-3
Why it matters:
- Goerges put together the blueprint of how to take out Wozniacki.  She served effectively, opened up the court smartly with a mix of down the line and crosscourt shots, and closed at the net to take away time from the World #1.  Sure, those skills will work against almost anyone (and they did - she won the title, after all).  But think about each in relation to Wozniacki in particular.  First, the return.  Wozniacki doesn't crack return winners, but she does neutralize big serves by putting them back deep in the court.  Goerges served well to the corners, and especially kicked her second serve so effectively out wide that the court was wide open for her to close points quickly off Wozniacki's return.  Goerges won 65% of her 2nd serve points, an impressive feat, and never lost serve.  Goerges took her chances down the line, and tried to work on hitting smart angles and mixing up the placement of shots.  This works against Wozniacki because she doesn't have the power or mindset to rip winners from awkward positions.  If players are able to wrest control of the point and put Wozniacki into awkward shots, Wozniacki usually counters with smart defensive lobs.  Wozniacki tried that, but Goerges cut shots off either by stepping in and taking them early or by closing at net.  Goerges played smart, and executed a well-developed game plan to take the title.
- All in all, Goerges just played really well and deserved to win.  But the worrying fact for Wozniacki is that the chances that someone can do this to her in any 1 of 7 matches at Roland Garros is high - and if someone pulls it off than Woz will miss another chance to collect her maiden Grand Slam crown.  She's won 15 titles, but none on red clay (she has three on green clay).  The two clays might not be incredibly different, but they are different enough that Wozniacki's style may not be as suited for red clay.  I'm not willing to say she's not among the big favorites in Paris, but her failure to take a title on red clay up to this point is somewhat worrying.  She's playing in Madrid, Rome and Brussels before Paris, so she'll have plenty of chances to put a trophy in her case before the next major rolls around.
- Did anyone else notice how angry Wozniacki looked about losing this?  Think she just assumed she'd roll to victory? Or do you think she's realizing that her game plan can be cracked if someone is very on?  She needs to stay positive and not turn into a diva - at least not until she can back it up - or the pressure she puts on herself could start to mount.

Honorable Mentions:
- Fes F, Alberta Brianti def. Simona Halep - 64 63 - Brianti took advantage of what may be her one big chance to win a title.  She played solid, did nothing special, and watched while Halep collapsed.  For Halep, it's two years in a row where she couldn't convert in Fes in a winnable matchup.  She was so emotional from start to finish (and the annoying rain delay didn't help).  She played such impressive tennis to reach the final, she needs to remember how to play that way on Sundays.
- Barcelona F, Rafael Nadal def. David Ferrer - 62 64 - Deja vu? You'd hope Ferrer learned a lot from the Monte-Carlo final, but instead it looked like Nadal picked up patterns from a week earlier and again, did enough to win without playing spectacularly, but did it more efficiently this time.  We'll see how the clay court landscape changes when red-hot Djokovic returns to the tour, but there's no reason to believe this is the last Ferrer-Nadal matchup this spring.

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