Thursday, May 5, 2011

Making 3 Tiebreaks fun - 5/4/2011

Date: 5/4/2011
Result: Madrid R2, Roger Federer def. Feliciano Lopez, 7-6 6-7 7-6
Why it matters:
- Roger and Feliciano put on an exciting show, full of solid shotmaking and some fun rallies.  As with any three tiebreak match, lots of big serves were hit and there were only two breaks - one per player.  But the return games were competitive, so it wasn't a given that each set would be decided at 6-6.  On top of that, the tiebreaks were fascinating.  Federer ground out both of his wins, while Lopez put on a shocking display to blowout Federer in the 2nd set.  Thanks to the guys for entertaining anyone who got to watch.
- Now for each of the players, for Lopez, another heartbreaking loss, but he should really take a lot out of this.  His best tennis can threaten most (he didn't really play his best in the Belgrade final), and he's in good form recently.  Look out for him to be dangerous in the next few weeks - maybe not on the slower clay courts in Rome or Madrid, but definitely when grass season rolls around.
- This is kind of a big win for Roger.  He's still in the event where he can try to play himself into top form.  More importantly, though, he lost last time he played this tight a match against someone he was expected to beat.  It's apparent he's not going to blow people out day after day like he used to, so he'll need to use his experience and talent to sneak through more of these types of matches to sustain himself at the very top of the game.  Look for a bounce back against Malisse next round.

Honorable Mentions:
- Madrid R3, Petra Kvitova def. Vera Zvonareva - 61 64 - two players who fell out of the conversation in the last month for some reason, but Kvitova is trying to make a case why she should be back in the mix.  Kvitova's style makes her a threat in any match against any opponent, but she's too inconsistent (and sometimes impatient) to imagine her making a 6 or 7 match run anytime soon when it matters.  Even so, no one will want her anywhere nearby in the draw either in Rome or Paris.  Zvonareva needs to recover.  She made her first big splash on tour at the French, and with the field as open as ever, she could take the extra step she just couldn't take last year at Wimbledon or the US Open.  But until she starts to beat some of the players she's been beating over the last 12 months, she's going to remain out of the main conversation.
- Madrid R2, Juan Martin del Potro def. Marin Cilic - 63 60 - remember when both these guys were in the next generation ready to threaten regularly?  Well del Potro's been doing so (when not injured), but Cilic is MIA.  His only top-10 win of the year was in a small event in Marseille over Berdych,  and that was scattered among several poor losses.  Cilic's stroke production and movement really isn't suited for clay courts - he's a much better hard court player - but even on his worst surface, losses this lopsided shouldn't be happening for someone as talented as him.  For del Potro, it's a great sign that he could put together this kind of performance after a long first round match.  Maybe his fitness is almost all the way back.

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