Bravo Nole - 5/15/2011

Date: 5/15/2011
Result: Rome F, Novak Djokovic def. Rafael Nadal, 6-4 6-4
Why it matters:
- The most interesting thing is how different this match looked to the match in Madrid and how the result was so strikingly similar.  In Madrid, serves won plenty of points outright (though there were plenty of breaks), Djokovic dictated essentially every point, and the rallies were comparatively straightforward.  In Rome, serves looked completely ineffective, Djokovic and Nadal had a tug-of-war over who could dictate (and plenty of rallies were completely neutral until the very end), and the angles and changes in direction with every shot made for extremely unpredictable rallies.  But, in the end, Djokovic had a little too much on average, and he took it in a tight two sets.
- What does this mean for the French coming up?  Djokovic has won on two different kinds of clay courts against Nadal, so there's no reason he can't win against Rafa in Paris, too.  But I think the fatigue factor might be more in play for Novak in Paris.  He's been playing great, that's obvious, but sets have gotten away from him in Madrid and Rome, and he needs to conserve that extra energy in Paris where the matches will be longer anyway.  But there's no match for pure desire, and that's what's driving Djokovic at the moment.  Nadal is still the favorite, slightly, but assuming Djokovic doesn't realize what he's been doing is absolutely insane and suddenly feel the pressure, Djokovic's got an amazing chance.  Although the all-time win streak coincides with his winning the title, he can cinch up the #1 ranking with just an appearance in the final, so for Novak, at least that won't be at stake should he be around in Paris on Sunday.

Honorable Mentions:
- Rome F, Maria Sharapova def. Sam Stosur - 62 64 - When you own someone, you own someone.  And Sharapova just matches up well with Stosur.  For Stosur, it's another worrying dud of a performance in a clay court final.  She plays so admirably to get there and then comes out flat.  Sharapova is the bigger story, though. She gets a big title back in her possession, and it's on clay.  The confidence has got to be at a high right now and as crazy as it would've sounded following her loss to Petkovic in Melbourne, she seems ready to win another major.  Maybe not in Paris, but then again...
- Prague Challenger F, Magdalena Rybarikova def. Petra Kvitova - 63 64 - I warned that Kvitova probably made an error playing at home, though I understood the impulse.  Rybarikova has talent, but that's beside the point.  Kvitova's a top tenner now, and any loss in a challenger is bad on the resume.  I don't think this will affect her mentally come the French, but I think it highlights how inconsistent her results can be.  So don't be too surprised to see Kvitova holding the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen in a few weeks, but don't be too surprised to see her out in R1 either.