Fool me once... - 5/5/2011

Date: 5/5/2011
Result: Madrid R3, Julia Goerges def. Caroline Wozniacki, 6-4 1-6 6-3
Why it matters:
- Goerges proved it wasn't a fluke.  She really just has the game that can be Woz on clay. The funny thing is, Goerges doesn't actually seem like a claycourter, but she's making the little adjustments to her game that lets her attack someone like Caroline.  Think about how Soderling picked apart Rafa at the French by playing good "patiently aggressive" tennis.  Soderling's really an indoor player, but has figured out how to make the clay work for him.  Same with Goerges.  She's got a big enough game that a faster court should be better, but when she tomahawks her forehand and mixes up her big serves with smart serves, she becomes tricky on a slower court.
- Another missed chance for Wozniacki on the red stuff.  Her patient play seems to be tailored for clay, but in the end it's just too passive.  When she can't really get extra help from the court surface to make her shots penetrate deep, she's more ready for the taking.  And given the typical style of play that most people have on tour nowadays, it means that Wozniacki will get more likely than not get taken out in each event during the clay season.  I don't think she'll be clear favorite at the French anymore...
Honorable Mentions:
- Madrid R3, Victoria Azarenka def. Arantxa Parra Santonja - 60 63 - ...because Victoria Azarenka probably has to be.  Her only loss in the last month and a half has been when she retired up 6-4.  I know I gave Azarenka a hard time, but she's really playing with confidence and showing exactly what she's capable of.  Parra Santonja's been having an off year (though an on week in Madrid, beating Pennetta and Petkovic), but that doesn't diminish the ruthlessness with which Azarenka is winning.  Unfortunately, if she is the favorite come Paris time, we'll see if she can deal with the pressure of taking that big step.
-Madrid R3, Robin Soderling def. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 76 75 - Another hierarchy match for the big hitters.  Just as I noted that del Potro has separated himself from Soderling, I think Soderling is proving the gap between himself and Tsonga.  This was tight, but Soderling has the more consistent weapons and the more level head when it matters.  Tsonga plays with flair, passion and more excitement, but slow and steady wins the race, especially on clay.  If Tsonga developed the strategic side, I think he's arguably more talented than Soderling.  But when he's relying on moments of inspiration rather than an articulated and premeditated plan, he's going to come up short against the Soderling we've seen in the last two years more often than not.