Was Rafa really in trouble? - 5/24/2011

Date: 5/24/2011
Result: Roland Garros R1, Rafael Nadal def. John Isner 6-4 6-7 6-7 6-2 6-4
Why it matters:
- Everyone is saying "the unthinkable almost happened", but did it?  Sure Isner was a set away, but that was a whole set away, and when it was pretty clear he wasn't going to break again.  His only realistic chance was to win in a fourth set tiebreak (Rafa himself said this was his internal analysis) and the fourth set was a blow out, so Isner never even could taste the opportunity for real.  Isner did make things interesting in some ways, and by winning the tiebreaks dominantly, proved it wasn't just his serve that was winning him points. And it was easy to get caught up in the frenzy of the commentating - it's not often that a French Open match of Nadal's gets so interesting - but if you really look at what was happening, Nadal just wasn't going to lose.
- What does this mean for Nadal?  Another closer than usual match so it makes you think he's not in his tip-top shape.  And maybe the balls aren't as favorable to him as he thought.  Azarenka implied they reminded her of playing in altitude like in Madrid in an interview on ESPN, and we know that Nadal isn't usually at his best there.  Do I think he'll lose early? No, but someone like Soderling or Djokovic could be tricky for him once again.

Honorable Mentions:
- Roland Garros R1, Kim Clijsters def. Anastasia Yakimova - 62 63 - This was both easier than and not as easy as the score indicated.  Kim dictated start to finish, but was incredibly patchy in her play.  This may be typical for Clijsters even when she's in peak form, but this felt like a lot of rust - not surprisingly!  But Clijsters won and her post-match interview with Pam Shriver showed that she's in a great frame of mind, something we didn't see in Indian Wells and Miami.  Her drive to keep collecting majors should help a lot - she was even more rusty when she won her second US Open in 2009 but elevated her game with each match.  Look for her to do the same in this event.
- Roland Garros R1, Ayumi Morita def. Kristina Mladenovic - 26 64 75 - Incredible comeback from Morita, who choked a break lead in the 3rd set and subsequently recovered from a 3-5 deficit in that same set.  Her record of retirements (7 from 2009-2010) may make some question her fight, but she wiped away questions today.  For Mladenovic, she's the next French hope, and though she plays a more modern game with less of the flair as the French crowd's beloved Amelie Mauresmo, she's got some great qualities.  However, Mladenovic lacked the push to close her match that Heather Watson had yesterday.  If Mladenovic, who did well in the Hopman Cup in January, wants to keep pace with her contemporaries like Watson and Sloane Stephens, to name a few, she'll need to start getting some big wins on tour.